Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

If you wanted to know the news around the NFL this past summer, you only need to mention four names: Brett Favre, Michael Vick, Jay Cutler, and Brandon Marshall.  While Favre, Vick, and Cutler are finally back onto the football field (albeit with daily reports still coming out relating to both Favre and Vick), Brandon Marshall seems to be lost in Denver. He did not travel with the Broncos to Seattle for the Broncos’ preseason game against the Seahawks. He isn’t practicing with the team; therefore, he’s not building chemistry with new quarterback Kyle Orton.  And, there is just no word as to how the situation will turn out.

The reason for the latest update (of course Brandon Marshall needs to be lowered in your rankings) is because his teammate Eddie Royal needs to be upgraded. Royal has a similar body type to that of great possession receiver Wes Welker, a man Broncos’ head coach Josh McDaniels excelled at getting a lot of opportunities to rack up some big fantasy numbers. Royal had a terrific rookie year and is quickly becoming a favorite target of Orton’s (he had 4 catches for 40 yards in limited action against Seattle). Royal will also see less time on the special teams unit, not returning many punt and kick returns to keep him fresh and healthy in order to help him to become a number one wide out. With all this in mind and the troubles Marshall is having, he should see a lot of targets in 2009, meaning his numbers will increase from last year.

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Going into your fantasy football draft, you and your competition will gather all the relevant data out there to create your cheat sheets in which you’ll compile your rankings position by position. Every person ranks players differently, basing it on last season’s numbers, potential impact, etc. With all the information out there, it’s no surprise that debates arise when it comes to who ranks where. However, when it comes to Defenses in 2009, there will be no argument with regards to who is #1.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is undoubtedly the first defensive unit that should be taken in every draft across the country. They were the best defensive team in 2008, allowing a meager 237.2 total yards per game (1st overall), 80.3 rushing yards per game (2nd overall), 156.9 passing yards per game (1st overall), and 13.9 points per game (1st overall).  On top of the fantastic stats, the Steelers D allowed 10 points or less to opposing offenses in 8 of the 16 games they played in the regular season, which is fantasy gold.

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After a breakout year in 2007, Jay Cutler entered last season with the Denver Broncos surrounded by some big expectations. It appeared the Broncos had finally found their franchise quarterback in Cutler and last season reiterated that thought. In fact, they were confirmed in the first game when Cutler threw for 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in helping lead the Broncos to a 41-14 dismantling of the Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football.

Traditionally, Denver has been a strong running team, but the running backs position was a trauma ward in 2008, putting even more pressure on Cutler and the passing game to perform well. Cutler and the rest of the offense was up to the challenge as the young quarterback finished the season with 4,526 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 18 interceptions while completing 62.3 percent of his passes.

In another example of Cutler’s growth, he took just 11 sacks, compared with 27 the season before, showing that he had increased his pocket awareness and presence. Unfortunately the passing prowess did not translate to a successful season for Denver. After starting 4-1 the Broncos lost seven of their next 11 games to finish 8-8 and miss out on the playoffs. And, this is when things started to get interesting.

The off-season was a tumultuous one in Denver. Unsatisfied with the team’s performance, team owner Pat Bowlen fired head coach Mike Shanahan, who led the Broncos to two Super Bowl wins, and replaced him with former New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. It wasn’t too long before reports started to surface that McDaniels was attempting to trade for Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel, a player McDaniels had helped develop, to start in place of Cutler. Upon hearing the news Cutler became upset and demanded a trade. After months of back-and-forth from both sides Cutler was finally traded to the Chicago Bears for quarterback Kyle Orton and draft picks.

So Cutler got his wish, was traded to a new team and is now a Chicago Bear. There is a lot to evaluate here so let’s take it piece by piece.

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Rookie quarterbacks are not supposed to play well. Rookie quarterbacks are not supposed to lead their team to the playoffs. And as fantasy football owners know, rookie quarterbacks are not supposed to be relevant in fantasy football. Apparently, Atlanta Falcons’ quarterback Matt Ryan did not get that memo. Ryan was essentially handed the job upon being drafted, but as he took over a team with only one legitimate weapon in wide receiver Roddy White, most assumed the young quarterback was a year or two away from being relevant in fantasy football. Then, he goes out and throws a 62-yard touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins on the very first attempt of his professional career. Of course, we know now that an improved offensive line and a great free-agent addition in running back Michael Turner really helped turned the Falcons into a winner last season. Those two things also allowed Ryan to grow into the job without being overwhelmed by it at the same time. Ryan ended up having quite a successful season as he threw for 3,440 yards with 16 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 61.1 completion percentage.

The big question is does Ryan have staying power or was last season a fluke? The good news for Falcons’ fans is not only does Ryan have staying power, but he’s got the skill set to turn into one of the league’s top passers some day. Looking at his numbers, you can see this as his completion percentage was above 60, he had a positive touchdown-to-interception ratio, averaged more than 7 yards per attempt and posted an impressive 87.7 quarterback rating. For any player that’s pretty impressive, but for a rookie that’s incredible.

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One of the most memorable moments from the 2008 NFL season came not on a great touchdown or a big defensive stand, instead it came on a safety blitz when the Kansas City Chiefs’ Bernard Pollard attempted to tackle New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady in a week one game. Pollard’s helmet collided with Brady’s left knee, tearing the ACL and ending the quarterbacks season almost as soon as it began. Brady was entering 2008 off a record-breaking season two years ago and appeared ready to rewrite the record books again before the injury with the entire offense returning. In Brady’s absence Matt Cassel, who had not started a game since high school, took over and played well for the Patriots but ultimately failed to lead them to the playoffs. Not that there was ever any concern about who would be the starter in New England, but Cassel has since been traded to the Chiefs, leaving Kevin O’Connell, Matt Gutierrez and Brian Hoyer as the players to back up Brady this season. Those players have attempted a combined seven passes in the NFL.

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One of the hot topics of the fantasy football world this offseason has been LaDainian Tomlinson and what kind of production to expect from him in 2009. I drafted him last year, and it was quite the roller coaster ride. One of the golden rules of fantasy football is to always play your studs, but I’ll admit that I benched him a few times last year out of frustration. Doing that cost me two games, but leaving him in my lineup cost me a few, as well. You’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t sometimes.

A lot of the 2008 owners of LT have been saying either – “He will return to glory in 2009 because he is ‘The Man’”, or “He cost me my season last year and I’ll never have him on my team again.” Both of those sentiments are illogical and are not the right philosophy to have when playing fantasy football regardless of the player. After each season, you reevaluate each and every player, some go up and some go down. 2008 was the year when LT finally dropped down a notch and everyone hit the panic button. 

In standard scoring fantasy football leagues, LT finished sixth among RBs, with 1,110 yards, 12 total tds and he just missed 300 carries at 292. He also had 52 receptions for 426 yards. If somebody with a name other than LT posted season totals like this, everybody would be happy with that kind of production. But that’s not good enough for LT, right? On the flip side of those totals, he had three of those 12 touchdowns in week 17. He only hit 100 yards rushing in two contests and had five games where he rushed for fewer than 45 yards rushing. 

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Having to wait three years behind Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers finally got his chance to lead the team last year after Favre was traded to the New York Jets days before the first pre-season game. Rodgers had not started a game in his first three seasons with Green Bay, so despite his apparent talent level he was a big question mark entering the season last year. It didn’t take long for Rodgers to take command of the Packers offense as he threw for 506 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in leading Green Bay to consecutive wins at the beginning of the season. Rodgers went on to finish with 4,038 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, a 63.6 completion percentage and a very good 7.5 average yards per attempt. At the same time the Packers found it hard to win, mostly because of a porous defense, as they stumbled to a 6-10 record.

After a stellar first season at the helm, the future looks bright for Rodgers and the Packers. In fact, entering this season Rodgers could be considered a sleeper, not in the sense that he’s a player coming out of nowhere, but more in the regard that he’s got the potential to finish as the top fantasy football quarterback. That’s quite a statement so let’s take a look at why that might be the case.

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As a running back, Reggie Bush makes for an excellent slot receiver. As the former No. 2 overall pick in the draft, Bush has run for at least 100 yards in a game just once in his three-year career. In fact, he’s had more than 80 rushing yards in a game just twice. Meanwhile, Pierre Thomas, an undrafted rookie out of Illinois, ran for at least 87 yards four times in the Saints’ final six games last season, and for his career, has two games of at least 100 rushing yards.

This season, with Deuce McAllister having departed, Thomas should get his chance to shine in New Orleans’ backfield. As his six-game explosion at the end of the 2008 season showed, he could be primed to do big things with that opportunity. Thomas isn’t just a one-trick pony who can only run the ball. He’s a proficient pass-catcher as well. And, though he isn’t at Bush’s level in that regard, he can more than hold his own. Last season, he caught 31 passes, three of them for touchdowns.

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St. Louis Rams’ running back, Steven Jackson, has become quite the Twitter aficionado, but that’s not his only talent. When healthy, few players in the NFL offer the type of dynamic package No. 39 does. The key words there being, “when healthy.” That’s been a problem for the former Oregon State star throughout his NFL career, as just once in his five seasons has he played a full 16-game schedule. It’s been particularly difficult for him to stay on the field over the last two seasons, as he’s missed a total of eight games during that span. Despite his health issues, Jackson’s numbers have been impressive. He’s rushed for 1,000 yards in every year of his career, except his rookie season, and has scored at least six times per year over the same time span.

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Two years ago at this time, the talk surrounding the Dallas Cowboys had been about how this team had so much talent they were bound to become the next Super Bowl Champion.  Then last year, they had multiple guys on their team with character issues, but the thought was if they could stay out of trouble no one was stopping this team.  The Cowboys have a new look in 2009, ridding themselves of all the trouble makers, including former WR1 and chief drama king Terrell Owens.  Owens replacement will be the guy who came in mid season and did not have much success in a Cowboys uniform, Roy Williams.

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