Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

With the running back position being such an important position in the world of fantasy football, nabbing a bad running back in your fantasy draft can seriously hurt your championship aspirations. As we continue are annual installment of “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly,” it’s time to take a look at THE BAD running backs of 2009. While many of the running backs who made this list were fairly productive and were just an injury, a touchdown or a few yards away from having a good season, when it comes to fantasy football sometimes a couple of points can make a difference between THE GOOD and THE BAD. Needless to say, the players below didn’t quite match their owners’ draft day expectations.

THE BAD

1. LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego Chargers) — There is often a fine line between THE GOOD and THE BAD when it comes to being an NFL running back and that is no different when it comes to fantasy football. LaDainian Tomlinson had 12 touchdowns during the year, which was good, but he finished with just 754 yards and averaged 3.2 yards per carry. These totals were well below his career averages and well below what was expected of him heading into the season. He started the year as our No. 6 ranked running back, but he finished 2009 as the 20th best fantasy running back. It has often been said that a NFL running back starts to decline at the age of 30 and this appears to be true in the case of Tomlinson who turned 30 this past June as he put up the worst yardage totals of his phenomenal career.

It’s hard to say at this point what to expect from LT in 2010. There are rumors flying that this may have been his last season with the San Diego Chargers. So before we say if he can improve on what was a bad season by the high standards that he set over the first eight years of his career, we will need to see where he is playing and what his role will be. Tomlinson was arguably the best running back of the first decade of the new millennium, but be careful not to overrate him heading into next season as it could end up being another disappointing year for a running back that offered so much excitement for fantasy owners early in his career.

2. Brandon Jacobs (New York Giants) — With the New York Giants losing Derrick Ward to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers via free agency, it appeared that Brandon Jacobs would have increased value in 2009 as it was expected that he would be the main ball carrier for the G-Men. He did end up leading the team in carries with 224, but he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry finishing the season with 835 rushing yards and five touchdowns. He failed to reach 1,000 yards rushing for the first time since the 2006 season, and he did not have one 100-yard rushing performance all season. What was expected to be a breakout season ended up just being a bad one, especially when you consider we had him ranked as our No. 13 ranked running back in the preseason. He finished the season with just 125 fantasy points, which placed him as the 29th ranked fantasy running back and with two less points than his backup Ahmad Bradshaw who had just 163 carries while battling ankle and foot injuries for a majority of the season.

Jacobs missed the team’s Week 17 game against the Minnesota Vikings as a knee injury required arthroscopic surgery, and he was place on injured reserve. The injury is not expected to force him to miss any time in the 2010 season, but his poor production could cause a decrease in his fantasy value. He will very likely be looking at a split in carries with Bradshaw, a role that would look very similar to 2007-08 when he was sharing touches with Derrick Ward. This is not a bad thing when you consider that Jacobs had his most productive seasons when he had Ward as his change of pace back. Look for Jacobs to be a low-end RB2 or flex option heading into next season.

3. Kevin Smith (Detroit Lions) — Coming off an 0-16 season, it’s hard to believe that fantasy owners were expecting much from any Detroit Lions’ offensive players not named Calvin Johnson in 2009, but when you consider the fact that Kevin Smith gained 976 yards with eight touchdowns in his rookie season, in just 12 starts, he appeared to be a lock to be at least a RB2. The season started out good enough as he scored double digit fantasy points in three of the Lions first four games, but he was held to less than 10 points in seven of Detroit’s next nine games before a devastating knee injury ended his season during a loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 14.

Smith lacks breakaway speed and often seemed to be easily tackled. Lions head coach Jim Schwartz mentioned during more than one press conference this year that they needed more big plays out of the running back position. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Smith. There are concerns coming out of Detroit about whether or not he will be ready to go for the start of the regular season in 2010 and his fantasy value will surely take a dip. He was ranked No. 16 by the Bruno Boys heading into the season, but he finished the season as the No. 26 fantasy running back with 131 points on the season. Not only are there questions about his fantasy status heading into next season, there are a lot of questions regarding his role with Detroit. Make sure you keep a close on eye on this situation if you are going to consider drafting Smith this coming summer.

4. Marion Barber (Dallas Cowboys) — As the 2009 football season approached, Marion Barber was slated to be the No. 1 running for a Dallas Cowboys’ team that was expected to have an explosive offense and, as a result, was being targeted as a RB1 or RB2 by most fantasy owners. He started the season strong with 203 total rushing yards and two touchdowns over the first two games, but a quad injury in the fourth quarter of the Cowboys’ Week 2 loss to the New York Giants would sideline him for the team’s game the following week. Even though he missed just one game, it seemed to take him several weeks to recover from the injury, a point hammered home by the fact that he didn’t have a single 100-yard rushing performance the rest of the season.

Barber finished the season with 214 carries for 932 yards with seven touchdowns, which for an average running back is a solid season, but when you are expected to be a No. 1 or No. 2 fantasy running back it’s a bad season. He finished the year as the 21st ranked fantasy running back, which was well below the Bruno Boys No. 14 preseason ranking. There are going to be plenty of question marks surrounding Barber heading into the 2010 season, the biggest of which will be his durability and the fact that he is expected to have a more equal split of the carries with backup Felix Jones.

5. Ronnie Brown (Miami Dolphins) — Ronnie Brown was a foot injury away from appearing on this year’s THE GOOD list, but unfortunately for him, the Dolphins and fantasy owners alike, he suffered a Lisfranc fracture to his right foot and in Week 11, his season ended as he was placed on injured reserve. In the nine games that he played, he had 147 carries for 648 yards with eight touchdowns. Fantasy owners who had drafted him in the second or third round were getting great value as he was producing as a RB1. He finished the season with 118 fantasy points and his fantasy owners were left to wonder what could have been. His backup Ricky Williams went on to produce 197 points, starting the team’s final seven games in Brown’s absence.

It appears at this point that Brown should be able to participate in off-season team workouts and that he should be ready to go for the start of the 2010 NFL season. With Williams having a comeback season, there will be some concerns about Brown losing some carries, but when healthy Brown will be the team’s starting running back. Williams will have earned a share of the work load with his outstanding play in 2009, but Miami has one of the better running games in the NFL and will continue to use both backs. Follow Brown’s progress during the off-season because when healthy he can produce fantasy points at a high level while running the Wild Cat offense for the Dolphins.

6. Reggie Bush (New Orleans Saints) — Reggie Bush averaged 6.3 yards per carry this season, which is a very good number, so why did he end up on THE BAD running backs list for 2009? Because he had just 75 carries on the year and ended the season with just 103 total fantasy points. Bush only reached double digit fantasy points three times all season, and he didn’t show us the elusive Reggie Bush that we were accustomed too until the Divisional Playoffs against the Arizona Cardinals, when he broke off a 46-yard run and an 83-yard punt return; both for touchdowns. That was what we expected from him heading into the season, which is why we had him ranked as the No. 26 running back in our preseason rankings.

Bush’s decrease in production could be attributed to the fact that the Saints employ a high-powered passing attack. Not to mention there was a lot of competition for carries with both Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell running the ball very effectively for New Orleans. Thomas and Bell are more traditional style running backs, while Bush is more of a hybrid type back who is better when he gets the ball in open space and can use his speed to make defenders miss. There are rumors that the Saints may release Bush at season’s end, as they may not want to pay him the type of money he is looking for when they already have very good running backs in Thomas and Bell. But, if he continues to play well in the playoffs and helps lead the team to a Super Bowl win that could change. Where he is playing in 2010 will greatly affect his value in fantasy drafts next summer.

7. Julius Jones (Seattle Seahawks) — When Pete Carroll was introduced as the new Seattle Seahawks’ head coach, one of the first things he spoke of was improving the team’s running game. He stated how running the ball will affect everything that they do on both sides of the football. He also announced that he was bringing in Alex Gibbs as the team’s new offensive line coach. Gibbs has been one of the premier offensive line coaches in the NFL for some time. He will bring in the zone blocking scheme that he has used with success in Denver, Houston and Atlanta. All of this is good news for Julius Jones who had a bad season for the Seahawks in 2009.

Jones failed to top 700-yards rushing for the third straight season, after gaining more than 800-yards rushing in each of his first three seasons in the league when he was a member of the Dallas Cowboys. He had 177 carries for 663 yards with two touchdowns and added 35 receptions for 232 yards with two more touchdowns in 14 games played (all starts). By the end of the year, he was getting a big push from his backup Justin Forsett, who finished the season with 619 yards rushing, 350 yards receiving and five total touchdowns while starting just two games. It will be interesting to see how the landscape changes in Seattle with the former USC head coach at the helm. We believe that Forsett could very well see an increased role in this offense and could very well take over the starting duties from Jones, based on their 2009 performances.

8. Derrick Ward (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) — The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and fantasy football fanatics alike expected much more than the 115 carries for 414 yards with three total touchdowns that Derrick Ward produced during the 2009 season. He came to Tampa as a free agent from the New York Giants after his first 1,000 yard rushing season. He was brought in to compete with Ernest Graham who was more of a full back and the oft-injured Cadillac Williams. As the season went on, it was Williams who become the Buccaneers starter at running back, relegating Ward to a lesser role than he had in New York playing behind Brandon Jacobs.

Ward appeared as the No. 28 running back in the Bruno Boys preseason rankings, but finished as the 49th ranked fantasy running back at season’s end. He played in 15 games for Tampa Bay during the year, but never topped more than 70 rushing yards in a single game. With Cadillac Williams staying healthy for the entire season and playing more like the first round pick that he was in 2005, it appears that he will be the starting running back in Tampa Bay in 2010, and Ward will once again be nothing more than a backup with very minimal fantasy value.

9. Darren Sproles (San Diego Chargers) — At the end of the 2008 regular season and into the playoffs, Darren Sproles filled in very well for an injured LaDainian Tomlinson. As a matter of fact, he did so well, he earned himself the Chargers franchise tag and received a very healthy raise. Even at his smaller size (5’6” and 185 pounds) many people were starting to believe that he could become an every down running back and eventually take over for Tomlinson who appeared to be coming up on the end of his career. The 2009 season started off very well, and it appeared that owners who took a chance on him were going to be awarded with a very productive middle round draft pick as he scored 32 fantasy points over the first two games before the bottom dropped out. Sproles managed just 43 fantasy points over his next nine games, as Tomlinson once again emerged as the team’s No. 1 option at running back.

Sproles is a very good return man and is also very effective catching the ball out of the backfield. His final stat line for 2009 was 93 carries for 343 yards with three touchdowns and 45 receptions for 497 yards with four touchdowns. He has breakaway speed and when he has the ball he can go the distance at any time. How Sproles fairs next season is going to depend on what type of changes are made in San Diego in the off-season. With the Chargers getting eliminated by the New York Jets in the second round of the playoffs, there are rumors that this was Tomlinson’s last season with the team. This does not necessarily mean that Sproles will be the new starting running back for the Bolts, as the team is expected to either bring in a new back via free agency or the NFL Draft. Keep an eye on this situation, but Sproles will likely remain a third down back who will have additional value in point per reception leagues and leagues in which you are awarded points for return yardage.

10. Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts) — It may not be exactly fair to put a rookie running back on this list, but whether he was a rookie or not Donald Brown didn’t live up to the high expectations that were thrust upon him heading into the season. Many of us figured Brown, who was the Colts’ first round draft pick, could surpass veteran Joseph Addai as the team’s No. 1 rushing option by season’s end and many fantasy owners used a middle round draft pick on the rookie. Not only did he not surpass Addai, he didn’t even come close. Brown finished the year with 58 fantasy points, while Addai bounced back from a bad 2008 season with 182 fantasy points.

There were a lot of people who expected that Brown would be a rookie of the year candidate, but he ended up finishing well behind fellow rookie running backs Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells who scored 149 and 121 fantasy points respectively. Brown did show flashes as to why he was a first round NFL draft pick as he finished the season with 84 carries for 291 yards with three touchdowns and added 13 receptions for 184 yards in 12 games played. At this point, we don’t know what we can expect from Brown in 2010, but it seems clear that Addai will remain the team’s top option in the running game. Brown will likely receive as increased role in the Colt’s offense, but not significant enough to be used as anything more than a flex option heading into the season.

2009 The Good:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  |  DEF

2009 The Bad:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  |  DEF

2009 The Ugly:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K |  DEF

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