Aug 27, 2010

As much as fantasy football owners hope to find sleepers during the middle-to-late rounds of the draft, the ultimate success of your fantasy season can boil down to how well you avoid the busts - especially among those guys that you draft in the first five rounds. Just because a player makes the bust list, doesn’t necessarily mean you have to avoid him completely on draft day (though we’ll let you know who to avoid altogether). Some, not all busts are overvalued players, while the majority have seen their situations change (e.g., new team, new coaching staff, upgrade or downgrade of players around them, injuries, etc.) or are likely to have a hard time living up to expectations. Use our 2010 Fantasy Football Busts Quarterbacks list as a guide to move some players down your draft board.

Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings – After much back and forth, Brett Favre finally decided to come back to the Minnesota Vikings for the 2010 season. He already missed camp and some preseason, which is not a surprise for Favre. Last season, his first with Minnesota, Favre led the Vikings to the NFC Championship game. He also had a great season individually, throwing for 4,202 yards with 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions. For those who have followed Favre throughout his amazing career should know that the seven interceptions was an aberration and nothing more. Favre takes risks and gambles a lot, and was lucky to throw just seven interceptions.
Aside from us guaranteeing to you that Favre will throw more interceptions, the Vikings are starting to hurt a bit on offense. Wide receiver Sidney Rice, who, as Favre’s favorite target, caught 83 passes for for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns, is out for at least half of the season after opting for hip surgery. Wide receiver Percy Harvin, who caught 60 passes for 790 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie last year, is dealing with migraines and is having a hard time getting through practice. Favre may very well still have a good season; however, you can’t expect a repeat of his 2009 performance.

Donovan McNabb, QB, Washington Redskins – In one of the biggest moves of the offseason, the Philadelphia Eagles traded quarterback Donovan McNabb to the Washington Redskins. The Eagles decided to move on with Kevin Kolb, feeling that his ability and youth was a better fit for the offense than the experienced McNabb . With the addition of McNabb, Washington gets a quarterback who threw 45 touchdowns against 21 interceptions over the last two seasons. As an added bonus for McNabb, his new head coach, Mike Shanahan, has been known to get the most out of his quarterbacks. Seems like a win-win situation for McNabb and his fantasy football owners, right?
Well not everything is so rosy with the Redskins. First of all, the only established pass-catchers on the team are receiver Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley. Young receivers Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly have all underachieved since being draft by Washington and while Fred Davis enjoyed a fine 2009 season he still isn’t established.. Also, the Redskins has a suspect offensive line, especially on the right side with guard Artis Hicks and tackle Jammal Brown. On top of that, Washington will rely on rookie left tackle Trent Williams for protecting McNabb’s blindside. While talented, Williams still needs to adjust to the speed of the NFL game and will go up against some of the NFL’s top pass rushers. In the end, McNabb has the potential to produce as a QB2 in fantasy football leagues, however, an underachieving receiving corps and a bad offensive line shouldn’t inspire much confidence when drafting him.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers – Last season Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for 4,328 yards with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. It looked like he was finally taking the leap into becoming a good fantasy football starter. Then the offseason happened. To keep it short, let’s just say that Roethlisberger had some inappropriate fun in a Georgia nightclub bathroom and because of that he was suspended for the first six games of the season.
Now, it would be easy to assume that once those six games are over he will return and begin playing like his old self. But it’s not that simple. Being able to integrate yourself into a team six weeks into the season is difficult. The timing just isn’t there. Plus, the Steelers have already said they’re going to lean more on the running game this season. Which means we could see a lot of Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore. Finally, Pittsburgh lost offensive tackle Willie Colon to injury for the season and protecting Big Ben could be an ongoing problem. Combine all of these factors and Roethlisberger is a big bust waiting to happen.

Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos – Following his trade from the Chicago Bears to the Denver Broncos last summer, quarterback Kyle Orton had a breakout season, throwing for 3,802 yards with 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. In the first six games Orton threw nine touchdowns and had just one interception. Then there was the bye week and after that Orton and Broncos struggled. In the final 10 games Orton threw 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and was a lot more inconsistent than he was in the first six games. He was missing wide open receivers, making bad decisions and ultimately played a major role in Denver dropping eight of their last 10 games.
The bad news for Orton isn’t just that he finished the season poorly. It’s that Denver got worse during the offseason. The Broncos traded away receiver Brandon Marshall and tight end Tony Scheffler, who were first and third, respectively, on the team in receptions last year. That makes Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney the top two receivers on the Broncos right now. Denver also spent a first round pick on quarterback Tim Tebow, who will likely take away some snaps from Orton in third down or short-yardage situations. Orton’s inconsistencies and the poor personnel moves made by the Broncos lead us to believe that Orton will not repeat the fantasy football numbers from 2009 in 2010.
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See More ‘10 SLEEPERS: QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DEF (click to view)
See More ‘10 BUSTS: QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DEF (click to view)
Cheat Sheet RANKINGS: QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DEF
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