Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Kickers are not exactly highly sought after fantasy football players. Generally they are taken in the last rounds of the draft and are rarely on the same fantasy roster the entire season. Some managers even choose to stream kickers based on match-up, the idea being that point totals for kickers are based more often on the success of their offense than actual ability. No matter how you treat the position, it is a spot that needs to be filled and like in real life, can be the difference between being a champion or the first loser. Anyone who has ever won a match-up by less than three points can attest to the importance of even a few extra points to a success of the team as a whole. That means it’s crucial to have a quality kicker week in and week out even if you’re drafting the position in the last round.

Below are five kickers to target late who could have break out seasons and be that big contributor your fantasy football team needs to put it over the top. When reading about the 2010 Fantasy Football Sleeper Kickers selections, remember these three rules Bruno Boys uses to classify “sleepers”: 1) players who have a chance of outperforming their projection and player ranking; 2) players that should give you a nice return on your draft pick/auction price; 3) some sleepers are also undervalued, not all.

Dan Carpenter, K, Miami Dolphins – Carpenter is only entering his third NFL season, but has already proven himself to be one of the best in the business. He is coming off a strong Pro Bowl season in which he posted an 89-percent field goal percentage, good for fifth in the league for kickers with more than 20 attempts. This isn’t unprecedented for him, either. In 2008 he kicked at an 84-percent clip and went 40-40 on extra points, so we can assume the talent is real and that his 2009 Pro Bowl selection wasn’t a fluke. He also plays in Miami, where it’s 80 degrees and sunny 365 days a year. There might be rain from time to time; however, a passing seagull poses a bigger threat to his accuracy than the Florida weather ever will.

Now with the addition of Brandon Marshall and an emerging Chad Henne opening up the passing game, this offense is poised for a big season which can only mean bigger numbers for Carpenter. Count on him to maintain a field goal percentage in the 87-percent range and put around 30 pigskins through the uprights. We have him ranked as the 12th overall kicker which is exactly where he’s being taken in fantasy drafts, but those projected numbers would easily vault him to a top five spot and make him an easy sleeper choice.

Matt Bryant, K, Atlanta Falcons – After four years of quality work for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (including 32 field goals in 2008), Bryant inexplicably found himself out of a job entering the 2009 season. Lucky for him Jason Elam proved to be not nearly as effective in Atlanta as he was as a member of the Denver Broncos and was cut after 11 games. Bryant immediately took over in Atlanta and was a little shaky right out of the gate, going just 7-10 overall Atlanta’s last five games. The good news is that he was expected to enter 2010 training camp in a kicking battle with Steven Hauschka but that didn’t last. The Falcons cut Hauschka and rewarded Bryant the kicking job outright.

The eight-year pro boasted an 84.4-percent field goal rate during his time in Tampa so the talent is there. Now he is on a much better team that will surely put him in scoring range more often than the hapless Buccaneers. They also play in a dome which is always a huge plus for kickers, not that the weather in Tampa is traditionally a big issue. As a staff, we rank Bryant as the 21st overall kicker in our fantasy football cheat sheet rankings, a spot he can definitely surpass if he brings the consistent accuracy he had in Tampa with him to the Georgia Dome. Expect around 25 field goals, making him a great pick up off the waiver wire and another reason you should wait till the end of the draft to fill the kicker slot.

Ryan Succop, K, Kansas City Chiefs – Another young kicker to tout, Ryan Succop went 25-of-29 in his rookie season for Kansas City, hitting from all distances and proving his worth as a legitimate NFL kicker. There’s even more excitement to be garnered from his overall progression.Succop struggled early on, missing four field goals in 18 attempts. However, he proceeded to go a perfect 11-11 the last seven games of the season. This would suggest the rookie simply needed some time to get adjusted to kicking at the professional level with a unusual amount of pressure beating down on him every time he stepped up to the tee. The fact that he was clearly able to adjust and actually flourished once he became acclimated to the NFL is a major sign of positive things to come from the former South Carolina Gamecock.

The intangibles look decent as well, with an improving offense hoping to generate more chances for the second year Chief, and Arrowhead Stadium doesn’t really push his value in either direction.
We have him ranked as our No.16 fantasy football kicker in 2010, sandwiched between old timers Joe Nedney and Sebastian Janikowski, but like Bryant is being drafted outside of the top 20 which makes him a fantastic value. Another step forward similar to what the aforementioned Dan Carpenter did his second season and we could see a top ten year for the young Chief.

Dave Buehler, K, Dallas Cowboys – Fun fact about Buehler: he was one of the few people actually hurt in that training tent collapse, sustaining a concussion and needing three stitches to seal up a gash on his knee. Buehler was drafted in 2009 but remained behind Nick Folk and Shaun Suisham on the depth chart at different times over the course of the season. He was however in charge of kick offs, and that is where the Cowboys started to recognize they have something more than just a kickoff specilist. He finished his rookie season with 29 touchbacks, a Dallas franchise record and the most of any kicker in 2009; clearly the former USC Trojan has a leg.

What about his accuracy? In college he maintained a nearly 80-percent field goal average while proving to NFL scouts he has the leg to be called on from long distance. The early cause for concern with Buehler was that he struggled at the start of training camp, going just 33-of-38 during practice at the Alamo Dome. We all know that Jerry Jones doesn’t wait around for kickers to find their stroke, but luckily Buehler is a fast learner, turning it around with a three field goal game in the preseason opener against the Oakland Raiders. Recent reports have said his kicking lately has alleviated much of the concern. With Buehler locked into the starting gig in Big D, he has a prime opportunity to out play his consensus ranking of No.19 overall among kickers. Bear in mind though it’s a bit of a higher risk pick due to Jones’ propensity for impatience with his kickers. Still, if you want a kicker that could propel themselves into the upper echelon at his position, Buehler has the potential.

Shayne Graham, K, Baltimore Ravens – Shayne Graham is living proof how little job security kickers have. The nine-year pro spent the last seven seasons doing quality work for the Cincinnati Bengals. He converted 177-of-204 field goals over that time span, an 86.7-percent success rate. Then the 2009 playoffs arrived, and two missed field goals later Graham was out of a job. It was clearly a reactionary move on the Bengals’ part, as Graham is actually one of the most accurate field goal kickers in NFL history. His 85.27-percent conversion rate is actually good enough for fifth all time, something most people don’t know. Further lowering him on most fantasy football draft boards is the fact that he hasn’t actually won the job yet, currently competing against journeyman Billy Cundiff.

Graham’s historically reliable leg all but assures he will win the job and succeed with the Ravens. Also working in his favor is an improving Baltimore offense and the most kicker-friendly outdoor stadium in the league (84.6-percent success rate). With all these factors in mind, it’s clear Graham has the potential to vastly outperform his current rank of No.18 in our preseason kicker rankings. He almost has to; there are only three active players with a higher field goal percentage than him. All the Baltimore offense has to do is put him in kicking position, something Joe Flacco and company figure to do quite often this season. While other fantasy football owners take a kicker a round or two before the last one, feel confident about snagging Graham with your last pick.

 
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See More ‘10 SLEEPERS:  QB |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  |  DEF   (click to view)

See More ‘10 BUSTS:  QB  |  RB  |  WR |  TE  |  K  |  DEF   (click to view)

Cheat Sheet RANKINGS:  QB  |  RB |  WR |  TE |  K |  DEF

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