A Librarian’s Touch - Riskiest Picks From Top 100

Aug 26, 2009

A Librarian’s Touch - Riskiest Picks From Top 100

Earlier this week I created my annual Average Ranking Position spreadsheet – I averaged together ten Top 100 rankings from fantasy football experts to come up with one ranking for each player. To get a sense of how much agreement there was on a player’s ranking, I calculated the standard deviation for each player’s rankings as well. Then by adding the standard deviation to the average ranking calculation, we have not only an average ranking but an average that’s put into perspective a bit more. There are a lot of interesting things you can pull out of this sort of analysis and I thought that on today’s A Librarian’s Touch column we could take a look at those guys who had the highest standard deviation, or the least amount of consensus.

In a sense that makes these guys the riskiest players in the eyes of the experts (within the Top 100 players) since there are experts out there that aren’t feeling it, aren’t sensing the same fantasy vibe. However, depending on which experts your league mates are turning to for advice, it also means that you might be able to get these players at a better value. So read onto find out who are the Riskiest Picks From the Top 100.

Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans Saints: Moore is a fascinating fantasy player this year. He came virtually out of nowhere last year, upping his receptions from 32 to 79 (and his receiving yardage from 302 to 928 yards), and was on track to be a highly coveted WR (especially in PPR leagues) when he injured his shoulder and required surgery during the offseason. Needless to say, that knocked Moore down substantially in the rankings and clearly there’s a lack of agreement here on where he should be ranked. If you’re banking on the fact that Moore already developed a nice rapport with Drew Brees last year and that his return to training camp is a good sign, then you might just be able to land him at a pretty decent value.

Felix Jones, RB, Dallas Cowboys: It’s always the injuries that monkey with average rankings, isn’t it? Last season Felix Jones only played in 5 games before succumbing to his turf toe injury and there is a shroud of uncertainty over exactly where he should be ranked. During the first preseason game this August his performance inspired owner Jerry Jones to state that, “Felix Jones put it in a different light when he got in the game.” While his recent preseason performances and explosiveness in camp may have bumped him up in some rankings, other experts are keeping in mind that he is indeed still part of a committee.

Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts: Another surefire way to get a mix of ranking opinions? Rank a rookie. Donald Brown’s main issue is his rookie status, though there’s a lot of uncertainty about Joseph Addai’s ability to perform this season, which inevitably impacts Brown’s value. Throw in the fact that Brown could be part of a two-headed RB monster and there are plenty of reasons to lower your expectations for Brown. That said, grab onto Brown if you’re looking for a back that might just shine during the second half of the season – and at a decent value.

Kevin Smith & Darren McFadden, RB’s, Detroit Lions & Oakland Raiders: This one should probably come with an asterisk. I’ll group these guys together since they experienced the same fantasy football rankings phenomenon: in each case, one of the experts did not rank them anywhere in their Top 100 Rankings (and yes, it was the same expert that left them both unranked - FOX Sports). It’s almost hard to believe so keep an eye open for an update to these rankings since there’s a chance Smith and McFadden just fell through the cracks at FOX Sports. OR perhaps there’s some real doubt surrounding these two players and that would be something worthy of noting come draft day. If you adjust the standard deviations for these two players to run without FOX’s non-ranking, you end up with two fairly normal standard deviations…so my advice here would be to draft Smith and McFadden with confidence.

Others that have a high standard deviation include Darren Sproles (SD), Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG), Matt Cassel (KC), Owen Daniels (hou), and Kellen Winslow (TB). The two RBs here are both part of a committee situation so a lack of consensus is expected. Same goes for Cassel and Winslow; as they both are on new teams. To me, Owen Daniels then sticks out as a player whose lack of consensus doesn’t have a clear-cut explanation. Daniels has steadily increased his receptions and yardage, though his TD numbers haven’t improved at the same pace. Some see Daniels coming into his own this season (particularly if Matt Schaub can stay healthy), while others don’t see Daniels as much of a contender for fantasy football relevance on the TE front. This makes Daniels a player with a lot of upside that you can target in later rounds if you don’t have a chance to grab one of the elite TEs.

To see other articles written by the Fantasy Football Librarian click here…. A Librarian’s Touch Archives

The Bruno Boys are pleased to once again welcome guest columnist, Sara Holladay, back for her feature, A Librarian’s Touch, for the 2009 season. The woman behind the web-site, Fantasy Football Librarian, Holladay is someone all fantasy owners should be well familiar with if they want to win their league’s title as she provides some of the best fantasy football insight and resources found around the web!

15 comments
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chrisziza

Posted at 12:49 Aug 26, 2009

Nice write-up. You sure do love your numbers Sara. Hope all is well.

W Leung

Posted at 7:21 Aug 27, 2009

If Brees is a top ranked QB capable of 30+ TDs then Moore isn’t much of a risk. Colston is not catching more than 15 of those so who’s catching the rest?

Kurt @top fantasy football

Posted at 8:24 Aug 27, 2009

Kevin Smith is an excellent pick up in PPR leagues plus he mustered 8 touchdowns last season.. the worst season for a NFL FOOTBALL team ever, only one way for this team to travel and thats up!

Joseph Addai has looked great in preseason and Brown is a small unproven rookie. Addai is way under valued and also on one of my FF teams.

Moore gathered many of his TDs in Colstons absence last year… I can’t see a repeat, sorry =(

W Leung

Posted at 8:44 Aug 27, 2009

Colston was back by November already. So they both played together for Nov and Dec. Colston had 346 yrds and 1 TD in Nov compared to Moore’s 308 yrds and 5 TDs. In Dec Colston had 332 yrds and 4 TDs and Moore had 189 yrds and 2 TDs.

I wanted to dismiss Moore as well in my rankings but looking at the numbers and playing with Brees, you just can’t.

Kurt @top fantasy football

Posted at 8:55 Aug 27, 2009

When Colson came back he was more of a decoy.. I watched all those games (Saints fan since birth) and Colston was used to draw coverage, period. Being that he is back 100 percent this year…

W Leung

Posted at 9:07 Aug 27, 2009

Moore’s stat line for the last game was 8 catches for 91 yards and 2 TDs. That’s not a decoy stat line.

Kurt @top fantasy football

Posted at 9:33 Aug 27, 2009

Leung
I didn’t say Moore was a decoy. Colston was still having issues. He was a decoy. Moore is not Wes Welker so hang it up man. If you’re in a PPR league then Moore has value but 10 TD is not happening again, hang that up.

W Leung

Posted at 9:51 Aug 27, 2009

“When Colson came back he was more of a decoy.. I watched all those games (Saints fan since birth) and Colston was used to draw coverage, period. Being that he is back 100 percent this year…”

You called him a decoy not me. I can’t think of many situations where a QB of Bree’s caliber had only 1 capable WR. While he may not score 10 TDs again, 7-8 is definitely within reach which would be better than many WRs. Hang it up is not a good argument and who was Wes Welker before he became the Wes Welker we know? In Welker’s best season, he only scored 8 TDs.

Howie

Posted at 9:54 Aug 27, 2009

Solid post, nice use a statistical analysis. Gotta love the fox omissions - won’t be a draft on the planet that leaves those two on the board past 100. I kept Moore and Smith in a keeper (my team stunk) so I hope they deviate in the right direction. I see Moore as #2 in a top 3 pass focus offense and Smith and Megatron as 70% of whatever the Lions put up. Its a PPR league so again that of increases their value. I can’t understand why Owen Daniels would have a big deviation - Houston similar to the Saints is a high-end offense that goes to the air Daniels is the #2 or 3 target with Walters and has proven production. Shockey is a guy I would see being all over the board with at least somebody betting on him (not me he’s burned me before). McFadden makes some sense given his competition for carries, but he is a top 100 for sure.

Kurt @top fantasy football

Posted at 11:24 Aug 27, 2009

I think Shockey got 50 catches with no TD last year and he only played twelve games most of the time he was hurt… now he is 100 percent healthy and already catching nice TD passes. Brees has praised him so Shockey is in for a rebound year big time if he can stay health.

Leung - u win.. Draft Moore or you’ll regret it =)

W Leung

Posted at 12:08 Aug 27, 2009

Kurt - it’s not about winning or losing this argument. I just want to know why everyone is so down on Moore. I wanted to dismiss him too but the numbers tell me otherwise. Haven’t really heard one except that he just can’t. Shockey - he’s getting drunk at Hard Rock as I write this.

Kurt @top fantasy football

Posted at 12:19 Aug 27, 2009

Leung, Moore had a great year no doubt but the talent around him that is back full force far exceeds Moore and your expectations.

Shockey - 50 catches in only 12 games, 0 TD - This year he is fully healthy, weights less, and is getting praise from Brees and TD catches in preseason from Brees.

Colston - back healthy - last year he hurt his back and then broken his hand in some form or fashion which impaired him the entire second half of the season.

Devery Henderson - LSU star - NFL’s leader in Yardage stats last year

Robert Meachem - only played one year so far but is in his third year in Peytons system - should be handling returns as well as WR duties.

W Leung

Posted at 12:36 Aug 27, 2009

Kurt, I follow the Saints closely. All the guys have potential, but have been at best been inconsistent. Meachem may be the one that actually does something this year but that’s all on speculation of his “potential”.

Moore, like Welker, is a gamer.

W Leung

Posted at 5:47 Aug 28, 2009

Q: What does Lance Moore bring to the table as opposed to Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson?

A: Lance is a guy who can do anything. He’s a great route runner. He’s really smooth. You watch him on film and you never know what’s coming. There eight different routes he could run for 15 yards and they all look the same. He’s a very difficult guy to cover. He’s got exceptional hands. He’s a fun-loving guy, you can see by his celebrations. The Road he has traveled as an undrafted free agent, starts off in Cleveland, on our practice squad and now he’s one of our to receivers. I have all the trust in the world in him. He’s one of our most reliable guys. He’s a competitive guy. He expects to get the ball and wants to make the play. Those are all things you want.

http://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/2009/8/27/1004965/drew-brees-q-a

casey

Posted at 8:41 Aug 28, 2009

w leung wins the award for biggest idiot on the message board.

kurt called colston a decoy, you told him that *moore* is not a decoy, and then you reposted where he called colston a decoy. well played sir, well played.

Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

A Librarian’s Touch - Riskiest Picks From Top 100