Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

How do you figure out which underperforming wide receivers are on the verge of breaking out and which are just barely hanging on as is? A few weeks ago a reader on my FFLibrarian blog asked if there was any research out there on fantasy points per target in 2008 vs 2009 – since I couldn’t find any, I figured why not crank out some stats for you Bruno Boys readers. So, today we’ll be looking at players that are seeing an increase in targets since last season (demonstrating that the coaching staff has confidence in that player or that their circumstances on the field have improved), but who aren’t putting up nearly as many fantasy points per target as in 2008 (indicating that they’re not living up to their potential). This should allow us to see which WRs might be worth an extra long look for the second half of the season.

On the other hand, who has seen a decrease in targets since last year but an increase in fantasy points per target? These might be guys who are doing as much as they can given their number of targets, but are primed for an overall disappointing season.

So let’s jump right in and take a look at the stats:

First up, we have those who are potentially on the verge of a breakout. For all the flack that Steve Smith of the Panthers has gotten this season for becoming The Other Steve Smith, it’s interesting to note that his targets per game have actually increased. Part of that might be the fact that 2008 was a run-first-run-all-the-time mentality in Carolina, but Delhomme has struggled mightily this season, which certainly has cost Smith some all important fantasy points. With defenses prepared for the Panthers run game this year, don’t be surprised to see Smith’s value increase as the season continues. We all know the potential is there…if he can find that points/target ratio he had last year, Smith could bump up about 20 spots in the WR rankings for the season.

Then of course there are players like Jabar Gaffney and Bryant Johnson who have changed teams since last year and are seeing an uptick in the number of targets headed their way – but are underperforming with their fantasy points/target ratio. If both players are given additional time to mesh with their offense or build a rapport with their QB, there’s a good chance that both could become a bit more fantasy relevant. We’re not talking top WRs, but guys to keep an eye on for flex or WR3 spots. In Bryant’s case there’s also the Calvin Johnson component to consider – if Calvin’s injury keeps him out or limited, Bryant could see himself jumping up in rankings quite a bit.

Guys like Justin Gage and Chris Chambers have actually seen a small increase in their number of targets per game, but both have seen a big decline in their points per target, particularly Gage. As someone who really believed in Gage, this turn of events has been hard to stomach. Much like Steve Smith’s case above, this could in part be due to general malaise in the passing game in Tennessee. I don’t think Vince Young is the answer and rookie Kenny Britt has proven himself to be a productive and valuable addition to the offense, so Gage might be in for a tough rest of the season at no fault of his own. Can you tell I’m a Gage fan?!

Chambers, meanwhile, seems to be floating away out of fantasyland all together. If, and that’s a big if, Chambers has a little more success with the balls thrown his way, then he might be worth considering in deep leagues. But, at this point despite the numbers showing that Chambers could have room to grow, I think Vincent Jackson is practically oozing productivity, which decreases the number of targets Chambers will see from here on out. I just can’t imagine Chambers being worthy of a fantasy start.

I threw Randy Moss in here, too, since he technically qualifies as a WR whose targets have increased since last year but is putting up fewer fantasy points per target. You can take away the same lesson here for Moss as the others players: he’s got so much more to give. Which is a scary thought really – can’t wait to see one of the best get even better!

On the flip side, there are definitely guys who are seeing fewer targets this year but actually putting up a higher fantasy points per target ratio than last year. There are a few ways you could spin this – my take is that these guys are maxing out on their productivity and doing what they can with their targets, but are candidates for a big drop in fantasy relevance this season. They are the classic underperformers this year: Donnie Avery, Dwayne Bowe, Santana Moss; and Steve Breaston is worth a mention here but for different reasons. Avery, Bowe, and Moss are all playing on pretty awful teams with QBs that are struggling quite a bit. Considering how often their teams are playing from behind, you would think their targets per game would be higher…but when you have solid RBs like Steven Jackson and Clinton Portis to turn to instead, it makes sense that these WRs aren’t seeing very much fantasy production.

Breaston’s situation is no surprise – when Anquan Boldin was out or limited last year, Breaston clearly had a chance at more targets than he does this year. Breaston remains a bit of a disappointment if you were hoping for him to capitalize on his numbers from last year – or were hoping Boldin might get traded in the off-season – but keep in mind that Breaston is poised to break out given the right opportunity.

If you want to play around with the target and fantasy point stats on your own, check out FFToday’s Wide Receiver Stats – you can go back as far as the 2000 season or just reorder the stats in any way you see fit. Enjoy!

To see other articles written by the Fantasy Football Librarian click here…. A Librarian’s Touch Archives

The Bruno Boys are pleased to once again welcome guest columnist, Sara Holladay, back for her feature,A Librarian’s Touch, for the 2009 season. The woman behind the web-site, Fantasy Football Librarian, Holladay is someone all fantasy owners should be well familiar with if they want to win their league’s title as she provides some of the best fantasy football insight and resources found around the web!