Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Last year I took a look back at the 2007 season and saw that after 5 weeks of the regular NFL season, seven of the end-of-season top 10 RBs were already ensconced in the top 10 fantasy football rankings. Based on the assumption that possibly seven of the top 10 RBs are always set in stone by Week 5, last year I made some guesses as to which seven players would remain in the top 10 and which three would fall out…I thought I’d take this opportunity on the precipice of Week 6 to run this analysis again.

So did it hold true last year? Of the top 10 RBs after Week 5, how many held their position through the end of the season? Let’s take a look using FFToday’s rankings based on standard scoring (note: you can find full end-of-season 2007 RB rankings here and 2008 RB rankings here):

Top 10 RBs as of Week 5 – 2008:

  1. Michael Turner
  2. Frank Gore
  3. Clinton Portis
  4. Marion Barber
  5. Matt Forte
  6. Reggie Bush
  7. Ronnie Brown
  8. Adrian Peterson
  9. Marshawn Lynch
  10. Brian Westbrook

Top 10 RBs end-of-season – 2008:

  1. DeAngelo Williams
  2. Michael Turner
  3. Adrian Peterson
  4. Matt Forte
  5. Thomas Jones
  6. Steve Slaton
  7. LaDainian Tomlinson
  8. Clinton Portis
  9. Maurice Jones-Drew
  10. Brian Westbrook

Looks like 2008’s Week 5 Top 10 RBs weren’t quite as on-target as 2007’s top 10 list – only 5 of the RBs at Week 5 remained in the Top 10 at the end of the season: Turner, Peterson, Forte, Portis, and Westbrook.

So this year I’ll average 2007 and 2008 together and assume that 6 of the Top 10 RBs at this point in the season will still be there come January.

Top 10 RBs as of Week 5 – 2009:

  1. Adrian Peterson
  2. Ronnie Brown
  3. Chris Johnson
  4. Maurice Jones-Drew
  5. Cedric Benson
  6. Ray Rice
  7. Willis McGahee
  8. Michael Turner
  9. Ricky Williams
  10. Kevin Smith

So which lucky 6 will stay and which will go? Here are the guys that I think will get the boot:

Willis McGahee & Ray Rice – There aren’t enough carries to go around in Baltimore for both of these guys to stay in the Top 10 and I’ll wager that neither one will be able to maintain their current level of fantasy stats. They’ve faced a series of fairly easy run defenses but the rest of their schedule gets much harder including 2 face-offs with the Steelers, a game against the formidable Vikings, and a battle with the newly fearsome Broncos run defense. Plan for this duo to slip in the rankings, though Rice is likely to finish with the better fantasy season.

Ricky Williams – While the Dolphins have a mix of a schedule ahead (a little Titans and Steelers with a dash of Texans and Bucs mixed in), he’s still on the wrong side of a double-headed rush attack. Ronnie Brown is sure to stay in the Top 10 but it could be a battle for Williams to maintain his numbers. Much of his success is dependent on his passing game, which is a little harder to rely upon, particularly when the Dolphins are looking at a handful of tough pass defenses in the middle of the season. Williams will still have an unbelievably successful season relative to his draft position, but he won’t finish in the Top 10.

Kevin Smith – Smith has put up good numbers despite running against some of the tougher run defenses in the league. That said the rest of his schedule doesn’t really ease up, especially in the last few weeks of the season. Expect to see some good games from him in Weeks 8 and 11 but ultimately I think he’ll slip out of his overall ranking as 10th RB and fall somewhere around 15th.

To see other articles written by the Fantasy Football Librarian click here…. A Librarian’s Touch Archives

The Bruno Boys are pleased to once again welcome guest columnist, Sara Holladay, back for her feature,A Librarian’s Touch, for the 2009 season. The woman behind the web-site, Fantasy Football Librarian, Holladay is someone all fantasy owners should be well familiar with if they want to win their league’s title as she provides some of the best fantasy football insight and resources found around the web!