2009 Fantasy Football Draft Sheet
2009 Fantasy Football Draft Sheet

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Dec 16, 2009

A Librarian’s Touch: Fantasy Players on the Rise

This week I’ve been thinking a lot about what the 2010 season will bring. I almost hate this time of year since I’m inevitably thinking ahead to next season, but I don’t want to waste away these last precious weeks of fantasy football with thoughts of the future; I want to savor this week’s games while I can. Football is a precious, precious thing – I mean from mid-February until the Hall of Fame Game, I can be found moping about our house with a full-on countdown until football games will be televised once again. So there’s no need to hurry through these sweet, beloved weeks, my loyal readers.

And yet, here I am wondering which players this year have seen a big rise or decline in their fantasy performance since last year, and what that might mean for 2010. So using FFToday I took a look at the current top 75 running backs and top 75 wide receivers, and I compared their fantasy points per game through Week 14 of the 2009 season to their fantasy points per game from the entire 2008 season. Now, granted there are still a few weeks left, but this should be a fairly accurate comparison, particularly since we’re looking at it from a fantasy points per game perspective. You’ll see in the charts below that I also included their current ranking within position, total fantasy points on the 2009 season, and then in the far right column, I’ve taken the difference between the 2009 and 2008 fantasy points per game. The charts are ordered based on the players with the greatest positive increase in fantasy points per game between 2008 and 2009, with rookies noted at the bottom of each chart.


RUNNING BACKS

RB ranking Player Name Total Points 2009 Points/Game 2008 Points/Game Diff in Points/Game
4 Ray Rice 217.3 16.7 5.6 11.1
14 Rashard Mendenhall 145.8 11.2 1.9 9.3
32 Justin Forsett 103.8 8 0 8
1 Chris Johnson 279.7 21.5 13.9 7.6
5 Ricky Williams 192 14.8 7.4 7.4
39 Jason Snelling 86.6 7.9 1 6.9
23 Laurence Maroney 123.3 9.5 3.1 6.4
29 Ahmad Bradshaw 109.3 9.1 3.4 5.7
40 Mike Bell 85.2 8.5 2.9 5.6
73 Quinton Ganther 31.5 6.3 0.8 5.5
27 Jamaal Charles 116.1 9.7 4.3 5.4
12 Cedric Benson 151 13.7 8.8 4.9
57 Chris Brown 50.5 4.6 0 4.6
47 Ryan Moats 67.1 6.1 2.1 4
9 Joseph Addai 177.1 13.6 9.8 3.8
3 Maurice Jones-Drew 227.9 17.5 13.9 3.6
63 Rock Cartwright 43 3.3 0 3.3
70 Fred Taylor 33.8 8.5 5.5 3
11 Ryan Grant 168.5 13 10.1 2.9
26 Fred Jackson 122.1 9.4 6.6 2.8
2 Adrian Peterson 236.5 18.2 15.5 2.7
24 Ronnie Brown 122.6 13.6 11.1 2.5
37 Julius Jones 91.6 8.3 5.9 2.4
50 Jerome Harrison 60.9 5.5 3.2 2.3
21 Tim Hightower 128.5 9.9 7.7 2.2
10 Frank Gore 171.6 15.6 13.5 2.1
56 Ladell Betts 50.9 5.1 3.6 1.5
49 Leonard Weaver 61.1 4.7 3.4 1.3
62 Mike Tolbert 43.8 3.4 2.1 1.3
36 Darren Sproles 96.8 7.4 6.5 0.9
16 Pierre Thomas 138.5 11.5 10.9 0.6
38 Correll Buckhalter 86.7 7.2 6.7 0.5
15 Kevin Smith 145.6 11.2 10.9 0.3
41 Justin Fargas 77.6 7.1 6.9 0.2
25 Jonathan Stewart 122.2 9.4 9.3 0.1
48 Tashard Choice 65.6 5 4.9 0.1
6 Thomas Jones 188.5 14.5 15.1 -0.6
30 Willis McGahee 108.3 8.3 9 -0.7
33 Carnell “Cadillac” Williams 102.4 7.9 8.6 -0.7
51 Michael Bush 58.9 4.5 5.4 -0.9
45 Felix Jones 67.7 6.2 7.6 -1.4
61 Leon Washington 46.1 6.6 8 -1.4
43 Chester Taylor 74.4 5.7 7.2 -1.5
7 Steven Jackson 179.2 13.8 15.9 -2.1
72 Jerious Norwood 31.8 4.5 6.6 -2.1
13 Michael Turner 149.9 15 17.3 -2.3
31 Reggie Bush 107.1 9.7 12 -2.3
58 Darren McFadden 50.1 5.6 7.9 -2.3
20 LaDainian Tomlinson 128.6 11.7 14.1 -2.4
52 Jamal Lewis 58.8 6.5 8.9 -2.4
22 Steve Slaton 127.4 11.6 14.1 -2.5
8 DeAngelo Williams 177.3 14.8 17.7 -2.9
28 Marion Barber 112.2 9.4 12.3 -2.9
42 Kevin Faulk 76.5 5.9 9 -3.1
71 Maurice Morris 32.1 2.9 6.4 -3.5
55 Donald Brown 54 6 10.4 -4.4
17 Matt Forte 138 10.6 15.2 -4.6
53 Derrick Ward 57.9 4.8 9.6 -4.8
54 Larry Johnson 55.8 5.1 10.4 -5.3
64 Sammy Morris 42.4 4.7 10.1 -5.4
18 Brandon Jacobs 132.4 10.2 15.6 -5.4
44 Marshawn Lynch 70.6 7.1 12.6 -5.5
46 Clinton Portis 67.1 8.4 14 -5.6
74 Mewelde Moore 30 2.3 7.9 -5.6
66 Willie Parker 38.3 3.5 10 -6.5
59 Brian Westbrook 50.1 8.4 15.6 -7.2
68 LenDale White 35.3 3.2 10.6 -7.4
65 Le’Ron McClain 40.5 3.1 10.6 -7.5
19 Knowshon Moreno 130.6 10 n/a n/a
34 Chris Wells 100.1 7.7 n/a n/a
35 LeSean McCoy 99.4 7.6 n/a n/a
60 Shonn Greene 47.4 4.3 n/a n/a
67 Bernard Scott 36.8 3.3 n/a n/a
69 Glen Coffee 35 2.9 n/a n/a
75 Chris Jennings 28.4 4.7 n/a n/a


Lots to look at here, so what I thought I’d focus on the most are the two extremes and see who really stands out there as someone to keep an eye on as the 2010 season draws closer. First up, Justin Forsett. I won’t dwell on him for long since I think I’ve fawned over him sufficiently enough in the past…but can you imagine how great he could be if 1) Seattle realizes that Forsett is really the answer,  and Julius Jones is not and 2) the Seahawks offensive line could stay healthy and productive? Forsett has shown he’s a force to be reckoned with, so stay tuned on what could be an impressive RB2 for the 2010 season.

A few guys whose futures really depend on the health of other players in their backfield include Ricky Williams (who was producing at an incredible level anyway before Brown was injured), Laurence Maroney, Quinton Ganther, and Ryan Moats. All of them saw at least a four point hefty increase in fantasy points per game since last year.

On the flip side, there are a few guys who dropped into obscurity – Le’Ron McClain and LenDale White became virtually useless on the fantasy football front with their carries pretty much all going to Ray Rice and Chris Johnson, respectively. Some players such as Brian Westbrook and Clinton Portis can blame a combo of ineffectiveness and injuries on their lower numbers, while Matt Forte and Brandon Jacobs have just been surprisingly bad this year.


WIDE RECEIVERS

WR ranking Player Name Total Points 2009 Points/Game 2008 Points/Game Diff in Points/Game
4 Miles Austin 159.9 12.3 3.8 8.5
11 Sidney Rice 137.5 10.6 2.9 7.7
31 Mario Manningham 93.1 7.8 0.3 7.5
28 Pierre Garcon 98.9 7.6 0.2 7.4
19 Mike Sims-Walker 111.8 9.3 2.4 6.9
14 Steve Smith (NYG) 135.3 10.4 4 6.4
53 Earl Bennett 66.5 5.1 0 5.1
12 DeSean Jackson 136.7 11.4 6.5 4.9
20 Robert Meachem 108.1 8.3 3.4 4.9
13 Chad Ochocinco 135.7 10.4 6 4.4
9 Wes Welker 139.8 12.7 8.4 4.3
69 Jacoby Jones 51.6 4.7 0.5 4.2
30 Roy Williams 93.8 7.8 3.7 4.1
68 Kelley Washington 51.7 4 0 4
65 Andre Caldwell 56.8 4.4 1.1 3.3
70 Devin Thomas 50.5 3.9 0.8 3.1
2 Reggie Wayne 161.8 12.4 9.4 3
16 Santonio Holmes 126 9.7 7.5 2.2
3 Randy Moss 161.4 12.4 10.4 2
37 Devin Hester 86.2 7.2 5.6 1.6
7 Marques Colston 144.8 11.1 9.6 1.5
56 Jason Avant 63 4.8 3.3 1.5
58 James Jones 62.1 4.8 3.3 1.5
17 Donald Driver 124.7 9.6 8.2 1.4
8 Vincent Jackson 140.9 10.8 9.5 1.3
57 Davone Bess 63 4.8 3.8 1
15 Hines Ward 130.3 10 9.2 0.8
18 Derrick Mason 120.1 9.2 8.4 0.8
35 Jerricho Cotchery 86.8 7.9 7.2 0.7
47 Patrick Crayton 72.2 5.6 4.9 0.7
6 Brandon Marshall 154.8 11.9 11.3 0.6
38 Devery Henderson 84.9 6.5 6.1 0.4
40 Donnie Avery 81 6.2 5.8 0.4
48 Nate Washington 71.5 5.5 5.1 0.4
1 Andre Johnson 171.7 13.2 12.8 0.4
44 Chris Chambers 74.2 5.7 5.4 0.3
66 Josh Morgan 53.8 4.1 4.2 -0.1
50 Dwayne Bowe 70.6 8.8 9 -0.2
73 Bobby Wade 45.3 4.5 4.8 -0.3
75 Jabar Gaffney 44.2 3.4 3.7 -0.3
60 Mark Clayton 59.3 4.9 5.5 -0.6
10 Roddy White 139.5 10.7 11.3 -0.6
32 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 90.1 6.9 7.6 -0.7
71 Bryant Johnson 47.5 3.7 4.5 -0.8
43 Steve Breaston 77.4 6.5 7.4 -0.9
59 Michael Jenkins 60.8 5.1 6 -0.9
46 Braylon Edwards 72.2 5.6 6.6 -1
54 Torry Holt 66.1 5.1 6.1 -1
64 Malcom Floyd 57.8 4.4 5.4 -1
5 Larry Fitzgerald 159.1 12.2 13.5 -1.3
42 Lee Evans 78.5 6 7.5 -1.5
72 Antwaan Randle El 46.4 3.6 5.2 -1.6
34 Santana Moss 88 6.8 8.8 -2
29 Terrell Owens 94.5 7.3 10.3 -3
45 Bernard Berrian 72.5 5.6 8.7 -3.1
74 Greg Camarillo 45.2 3.5 6.7 -3.2
63 Kevin Walter 57.8 5.3 8.6 -3.3
62 Laveranues Coles 58.4 4.5 7.9 -3.4
25 Greg Jennings 103.5 8 11.5 -3.5
51 Antonio Bryant 67.8 6.8 10.4 -3.6
26 Calvin Johnson 100.7 9.2 12.8 -3.6
27 Nate Burleson 99.2 7.6 12 -4.4
21 Steve Smith (CAR) 106.2 8.2 12.7 -4.5
23 Anquan Boldin 104.3 8.7 14.2 -5.5
22 Hakeem Nicks 104.5 9.5 n/a n/a
24 Percy Harvin 104.1 8.7 n/a n/a
33 Austin Collie 90 6.9 n/a n/a
36 Jeremy Maclin 86.3 6.6 n/a n/a
39 Kenny Britt 82.2 6.3 n/a n/a
41 Johnny Knox 79.8 6.1 n/a n/a
49 Mike Wallace 71 5.5 n/a n/a
52 Mohamed Massaquoi 66.6 5.1 n/a n/a
55 Louis Murphy 65.9 5.1 n/a n/a
61 Michael Crabtree 59.3 7.4 n/a n/a
67 Brian Hartline 52.5 4 n/a n/a

It hurts to see so many top receivers at the bottom of this chart – I honestly would not have believed you if you told me during the preseason that Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith (CAR), Greg Jennings, and Calvin Johnson would all be busts relative to where they were drafted. I guarantee all four of those guys were gone by the end of the third round in fantasy drafts this year, and yet each put up roughly a 30-40% decrease in fantasy points.

But, there were some nice surprises from guys like Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, and Steve Smith (NYG) – all of whom were only doing around 3-4 fantasy points per game last year, but took it up to 10+ points per game this season. Then, studs like Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker have shown they can get even better (though Wayne, where have you been lately?!), while Chad Ochocinco and Donald Driver demonstrated that we can’t give up on them just yet.

So while there’s plenty of time before we’ll see very many 2010 rankings roll out, there’s no reason we can’t take a good, long look at what’s happened this year…all while enjoying the remaining games of the season of course!

 


To see other articles written by the Fantasy Football Librarian click here…. A Librarian’s Touch Archives


The Bruno Boys are pleased to once again welcome guest columnist, Sara Holladay, back for her feature,A Librarian’s Touch, for the 2009 season. The woman behind the web-site, Fantasy Football Librarian, Holladay is someone all fantasy owners should be well familiar with if they want to win their league’s title as she provides some of the best fantasy football insight and resources found around the web!

Joey

Joey

Posted at 8:18 Dec 17, 2009

Great Article. I know 2009 isn’t over but it’s always nice to see an article about fantasy football in 2010. I enjoyed how you compared 2008 and 2009 PPG average because in most cases that is a true indicator of the amount of touches/targets they are receiving in their teams offense.

I am not surprised one bit that Ray Rice has the biggest increase in PPG over the last year and he is a guy that I currently would take with a top 5 pick in 2010 fantasy drafts.

Thanks for all of the insight Bruno Boys and FF Librarian.


Joey
Omaha, NE

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