Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

With it being the final week of the NFL regular season, many teams have already clinched a playoff spot and it makes it tough to predict just how long some of your stars will play. For example, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning hasn’t needed to play past the second quarter in four of his past five season finales. Fantasy owners can expect the same from Manning this season.

Besides Indianapolis, there are multiple teams that are forced with a similar situation on what to do with their starters and in our How Long Will Your Fantasy Studs Play in Week 17? article we take a deeper look at what some of these teams might do. Not only will we discuss the teams who have already clinched a playoff spot but we will dive into the AFC wild card scenario in which seven teams are fighting for two wild card spots.

AFC SCENARIOS

Indianapolis Colts - The Colts are 14-1 and have wrapped up home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. After seeing head coach Jim Caldwell yank Peyton Manning with the game on the line in Week 16 you can expect him to let his regulars play more than a few series in Week 17. In years past, Manning has seen limited action in the season finale and we don’t expect anything to change here. Stay away from Manning and also his back-up Curtis Painter, who looked dumbfounded against the New York Jets last week.  Another guy to stay away from is Joseph Addai. He left last weeks game with a shoulder injury and there is no guarantee he plays on Sunday. If he does, like Manning, Addai will be limited and won’t see a full workload. Both Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are likely to leave the game at the same time Manning exits and with that being at some point in the first half you are better off finding options that will play a full 60 minutes. If none are available, a quarter or two from Wayne and Clark could be enough to have decent fantasy performances, but that’s not a guarantee. Austin Collie and Donald Brown are both intriguing options in Week 17, but don’t be surprised if Caldwell extends them an extra 15-20 snaps and then decides to end their afternoons as well. Really, there is no one in Indianapolis you can plug into your lineup an not be worried about.

New England Patriots - Oh, what to do with your Patriots players. And by that we mean Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker. As expected, head coach Bill Belichick has provided as little information as possible about how long his starters will play and when asked by the Houston media in a conference call he dodged the subject. In typical Belichick fashion he called out one reporter and asked the guy if he was seeking information because he needs it to field his fantasy football roster. Earlier in the week Brady told reporters that he expects to play the full game but with New England not needing this game we find it hard to believe. A likely scenario is that Brady, Moss and Welker play as long as long as the game is close but they exit at some point during the second half. However, with Belichick being notorious for throwing everyone a “curve ball” it’s hard to rely on your New England play-makers. You will have to fully evaluate your roster before plugging any Patriots into your lineup and if you decide to start them don’t be shocked if they exit early.

San Diego Chargers - With San Diego having already clinched the AFC West title and a first round bye they have nothing to play for and likely will limit their key players. According to multiple reports Philip Rivers will start the game but back-up Billy Volek will see a heavy dosage of snaps. This will likely be the case for all of their starters meaning LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Rivers are risky fantasy football plays. Both LT and Gates could do some damage in their limited opportunity but it might not be enough help you win your Week 17 match-up. Vincent Jackson is suffering from an Achilles tendon injury and shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineup. Look for Darren Sproles to get some extended playing time and be used as a Flex play but at some point head coach Norv Turner will yank him early. Finally, Mike Tolbert saw a career high 11 carries last week and if the game dictates it he could see more this week.

Cincinnati Bengals - With a win last week the Bengals clinched the AFC North division and their first playoff appearance since the 2005 season. During that season, head coach Marvin Lewis allowed his starters to play sparingly in Week 17 and this is likely to be the case again. Cincinnati will be hosting a first round playoff game and all they have to play for is seeding, which isn’t worth risking injury to their regulars. Expect Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ocho Cinco to get their work in early but for the Bengals to turn to their second stringers at some point. Instead of trying to look into a crystal ball and predict how long they play do yourself a favor and keep them on your bench. Hopefully Benson owners were smart enough to handcuff him with Larry Johnson because the veteran should see some additional playing time on Sunday Night Football.

New York Jets - The playoff picture is simple for the New York Jets. It’s win and your in when the Jets take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday Night Football. With this being the case you can expect their starters to play all 60 minutes and if you’re a Thomas Jones owner you can start him with confidence. Jones is a top-5 fantasy running back and is has been a lock to score 10+ fantasy football points on a weekly basis. Like most weeks, Braylon Edwards’ and Jerricho Cotchery’s fantasy value will heavily rely on the play of quarterback Mark Sanchez. Realistic expectations for Edwards and Cotchery are WR3 or flex plays. As for Sanchez, keep him reserved.

Baltimore Ravens - Like that of the New York Jets, there isn’t much thinking that goes into the Ravens playoff scenario. If they beat the Oakland Raiders, they are in the playoffs. While Oakland has done a good job of playing spoiler in years past a perfect game from Baltimore will be too much to handle. With the Ravens needing this game there will be no holding back which means that Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and Derrick Mason (check injury status) should be in your lineup. The rest of the guys, including Willis McGahee and Todd Heap, should be used on a case-by-case basis.

Denver Broncos - With a Week 16 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles the Broncos need to win and get some help if they want to claim one of the two AFC wild card spots. Denver has a league high 10 different scenarios that can get them into the playoffs but it all starts with a victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. For this to happen Kyle Orton will have to find a new play-maker because the Broncos have already stated Brandon Marshall won’t play. Look for Jabar Gaffney, who had two touchdowns last week, to be the biggest beneficiary of Marshall’s absence but for those of you relying on Orton at quarterback you will have to limit your expectations. Look for rookie running back Knowshon Moreno to see an expanded role and get back on track after rushing for just 60 yards on his last 28 attempts. Finally, Matt Prater has been one of the best kickers in the NFL and with the weather expected to hold up in the Mile High State you should use him as your No.1 kicker. Fantasy owners’ shouldn’t consider any other options in Denver.

Houston Texans - With a victory the Texans will finish at 9-7 and likely tied for one the wild card spots in the AFC. The Texans have three different scenarios that could get them into the playoffs but first they must handle their own business and beat the New England Patriots. This will allow all of their regulars to play the entire game but the only two guys you should count on to produce are Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. After watching Arian Foster run hard last week you can make a case that he deserves to be in your lineup but make sure it’s as a flex play and nothing else. As we’ve seen before, Foster, and every other Texans running back, is one fumble away from being benched for the remainder of the game.

Pittsburgh Steelers - It’s going to take a lot of help for Pittsburgh to sneak their way into one of the two wild card spots in the AFC. At 8-7, the Steelers need to defeat the Miami Dolphins and hope that one of the three possible scenarios pans out. The odds of that happening are slim but luckily for fantasy owners the Steelers are in a must win situation. Expect 60 minutes from their regulars. Ben Roethlisberger, Rashard Mendenhall and Santonio Holmes are all No.1 options at their positions while Heath Miller should put together a nice yardage days against a Dolphins defense that allows over 60 yards per game to the tight end position. One guy to monitor is Hines Ward. He is suffering from a hamstring injury but head coach Mike Tomlin claims he will be on the field in Week 17. If he plays, use him as a WR2. If not, look for Mike Wallace to slide into his role and produce as a flex option. As you can see, this is a good week to start your Steelers.

Jacksonville Jaguars - At 7-8 the Jaguars are a long shot at making the postseason in 2009. However, since they are still in the playoff picture we’ll breakdown their fantasy value in Week. With Jacksonville taking on the Cleveland Browns it makes Maurice Jones-Drew a top-5 running back play and fantasy owners should make sure to plug Mike Sims-Walker in their lineup. Other than that, the only Jaguars skill player to consider is David Garrard. Cleveland does rank in the bottom five in the NFL against the pass and he has 28 fantasy points over his last two games. Consider Garrard a sneaky play with your season on the line.

Miami Dolphins - The only way Miami can sneak into the playoffs is if the Pittsburgh Steelers (who Miami plays), Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans,Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets lose. This won’t happen and none of the Dolphins skill players are looking like ideal plays. Ricky Williams has been a limited participant in practice this week and is looking to be a game-time decision in Week 17. If he plays use him as a low-end RB2 against a tough Steelers run defense. If Williams’ sits, Lex Hilliard will get his first NFL start. HIlliard, a dynamic option out of the backfield, played well in Week 16 but don’t be surprised if the Steelers bottle him up with a shot at the playoffs on the line.

Continue on to read about different scenarios from the NFC...