Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

- Written by Brad Berreman
- Edited by Allie Fontana

When looking for impact rookie for your fantasy football team, quarterbacks and running backs often represent opposite ends of the spectrum.

With the complexities of NFL offenses these days, rookie quarterbacks are rarely productive from the outset. In most cases, this has less to do with talent and more to do with the situation the rookie quarterback finds himself in. Rookie quarterbacks typically enter the league as first or early-round draft picks made by struggling teams. More often than not, the talent around them is subpar, which makes it more difficult for first-year signal callers to become instant fantasy stars.

Running backs, on the other hand, are much more likely to step in and make a significant fantasy impact as rookies.  Some are drafted by playoff-caliber teams and are immediately part of a productive offense, while others are expected to be “lightning in a bottle” for less successful franchises.

Determining a rookie’s impact, whether quarterback or running back, frequently depends as much on his ability to adapt to the demands of the NFL as it does to situational opportunity. Moreover, players from schools that feature pro-style offenses have a better shot at achieving success and making a fantasy football impact as rookies.

With this in mind, let’s take look at the Bruno Boys’ Class of 2010 quarterbacks and running backs that have the best chance to shine this season.

QUARTERBACKS

Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams – Bradford was the No.1 overall pick in April’s draft out of the University of Oklahoma. He was immediately stamped as St. Louis’ quarterback of the future and as it turns out, the immediate future.

Bradford played well late in the preseason, and with A.J. Feeley nursing a thumb injury, he was named the starter for the Rams’ Week 1 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.  Bradford has a strong, not huge, arm and is known for his accuracy. Unfortunately, the Rams’ wide receivers are a young and unproven group, and Bradford’s likely top target in the passing game, Donnie Avery, is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Rams recently acquired veteran Mark Clayton from the Baltimore Ravens as a replacement for Avery. While Clayton has excellent speed and good hands, his production has yet to measure up to his potential.

The Rams are likely to lean heavily on running back Steven Jackson as a runner and receiver once again this season, and his presence will aid Bradford’s development.  The Rams’ run-first offense coupled with the team’s overall lack of proven skill-position talent outside of Jackson will make it fairly difficult for the rookie signal-caller to be productive.

Bradford is obviously worth consideration in keeper and dynasty leagues, however he is, at best, a borderline low-end QB2 in redraft leagues this season. That’s not to say that he won’t have a few solid showings as a rookie, only that fantasy football owners will have trouble knowing when to start him with confidence. Expect Bradford to make more of a fantasy impact a season or two down the road.

Jimmy Clausen, QB, Carolina Panthers – Clausen’s draft stock fell in April, due to concerns over a toe injury he suffered in his final collegiate season at Notre Dame and questions about his leadership qualities.  The Panthers were certainly happy to grab their potential quarterback of the future in the second round.

Matt Moore started five games late last season for Carolina after the team benched Jake Delhomme, and performed well, finishing the season with eight touchdowns. While Moore is far from an established NFL starting quarterback, he is much closer to starter material heading into his fourth season in the league. Moore should get the nod over Clausen to start the season, however if he struggles or if the Panthers find themselves out of playoff contention, then Clausen is sure to see playing time.

Carolina might not be in a hurry to get Clausen under center, but when they do, he seems to possess the physical tools – accurate arm, quick delivery, and mobility in the pocket – necessary for success. Clausen has an advantage over some of the other rookie quarterbacks in that he played in a pro–style offense at Notre Dame. The Panthers have a strong running game with running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and a proven top tier wide receiver in Steve Smith, though not much else in the passing game. Given that Clausen is not guaranteed to see the field as a rookie, his fantasy potential in redraft leagues this season is limited. Clausen is a sure bet in dynasty leagues.

Colt McCoy, QB, Cleveland Browns – McCoy was drafted in the third round this year after a stellar collegiate career at the University of Texas. There was talk that despite his college successes, McCoy was drafted later than expected because of concerns about his height. Listed as 6’2”, McCoy is considered slightly undersized for an NFL quarterback. While McCoy might have been disappointed in where he fell in the draft, being selected by the Browns means that he could play sooner rather than later.

The Browns currently have Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace, two offseason additions, ahead of McCoy on their depth chart. McCoy struggled early in the preseason, however he played well (13-for-13 for 131 yards) against the Chicago Bears in Cleveland’s preseason finale. The Browns are expected to use this season to develop McCoy under veterans Delhomme and Wallace. On the other hand, if both Delhomme and Wallace stumble, the rookie could see playing time. The Browns offense is a work-in-progress, therefore McCoy doesn’t offer much fantasy value this year. Target him in dynasty leagues as he appears to have a bright future in the NFL.

Tim Tebow, QB, Denver Broncos – Despite his reputation as a winner and an excellent collegiate career at the University of Florida, Tebow was a somewhat surprising first-round pick by the Broncos in April. Tebow has a strong arm and was fairly accurate in college, though he has to work to do before he’s ready for his NFL close up. He takes too long to release the ball and his throwing motion requires some adjustment. On the other hand, he is a good runner and showed the ability to break tackles. Tebow saw some action during the preseason, and while he had his ups and downs, he appears to have done enough to beat out Brady Quinn as Kyle Orton’s backup in Denver.

From a fantasy football perspective, Orton is the Broncos’ quarterback to own this season. While Tebow probably won’t see the field much in 2010, he should get limited work at some point. Depending on if and how quickly Tebow progresses from “raw prospect” to “NFL-ready” quarterback, he could be in the running for the Broncos’ starting job next season. An argument could be made he is the quarterback from the 2010 rookie class to target in keeper leagues.

Max Hall, QB, Arizona Cardinals – Hall takes over as the Cardinals No. 2 quarterback after the team cut ties with Matt Leinart. The former BYU Cougar went undrafted in April, however he impressed the Cardinals’ coaching staff from OTAs through training camp and during limited preseason play. Hall displayed confidence running Arizona’s offense, completing seven of nine passes for 126 yards in the preseason finale against the Washington Redskins.

At this point, the only certainty surrounding Arizona’s quarterback situation is that veteran Derek Anderson will start Game 1 against the St. Louis Rams. How long Anderson lasts in the role depends on how well he performs. If he’s accurate, consistent, and puts up good numbers, Anderson could be a fantasy sleeper in the position. That’s a big if considering his post-2007 track record. Rotoworld set the over/under at Week 6 for Hall to assume the starting job. If Hall takes over as the signal-caller this season, he’ll be surrounded by top tier wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, and other solid skill-position talent in the Cardinals’ offense. Hall has fantasy potential as a waiver-wire sleeper in redraft leagues this season, and is a better value in dynasty leagues.

RUNNING BACKS

Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers – With the offseason departure of LaDainian Tomlinson, the Chargers needed a new feature back.  Enter Matthews, a big back with the one-two punch combination of explosiveness and good speed out of Fresno State. San Diego traded up to take Mathews as the No. 12 overall pick in April.  He had 276 carries for 1,808 yards and 19 touchdowns as a junior last season, and he seems more than capable of handling a heavy workload.

The Chargers offense is led by a borderline elite quarterback in Philip Rivers and an upper echelon tight end in Antonio Gates. The loss of wide receiver Vincent Jackson could hurt the overall productivity of the offense, however San Diego should still be among the best offenses in the NFL.

Mathews steps into a starring role in San Diego and is likely to be the top rookie rusher in the 2010 class. He is a top-15 fantasy running back this season with great upside.

Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions – The Lions traded back into the first round to take the explosive Best with the No.30 overall pick in April.  The rookie has an excellent shot to be the team’s No. 1 running back with teammate Kevin Smith working his way back from a torn ACL. He could also see action on special teams as the Lions’ primary return man.

Best scored 16 total touchdowns in just nine games at Cal last season before concussions kept him out of the Golden Bears’ final four games.  He battled injuries throughout his entire collegiate career, and his size (5’10”, 199 pounds) may not make him an ideal every-down back.  Best possesses top speed, excels at hitting the hole, and knows how to block. The Lions are likely to give him all the touches he can handle this season. On his own, Best has what it takes to make a fantasy impact this season, and his role on an emerging offseason adds to his upside.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills – Buffalo took Spiller, the dynamic running back from Clemson University, with the No. 9 overall pick in April’s draft. The move surprised some with established veterans Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch already entrenched in Buffalo’s backfield. Spiller has the “X” factor, the big-play ability that the other two don’t have. He should have no trouble carving out a role for himself in the Bills’ offense under new head coach Chan Gailey.

Both Jackson and Lynch missed time in the preseason due to injuries, and Spiller took the opportunity presented to him and literally ran with it. With Jackson still on the mend following a hand injury and Lynch’s average performance in preseason action, Gailey named Spiller the starter in Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins.

The prospect of a committee backfield in Buffalo makes Spiller’s longer-term fantasy football value hard to pinpoint right now. Nevertheless, his total yardage potential is significant given his skills as a receiver and great moves in the open field. If Spiller is productive it will be hard to keep him off the field. He is sure to be an asset for fantasy teams this season.

Toby Gerhart, RB, Minnesota Vikings – Gerhart was the Heisman Trophy runner-up as a senior for Stanford in 2009 as he led the nation in rushing yards with 1,871 yards and rushing touchdowns with 27. He was the No. 51 overall pick in April’s draft, when the Vikings took him despite not having a glaring need at running back.

The bruising Gerhart will settle in as Adrian Peterson’s backup in Minnesota, replacing Chester Taylor who signed with the Chicago Bears in the offseason. With Sidney Rice out of action for at least the first half of the season, Peterson might be used more on third downs or as a receiver out of the backfield. Gerhart is an excellent between-the-tackles runner and he could see some early-down work. He’s also a decent receiver out of the backfield, which could land him more playing time in the Vikings high-powered offense.

Should Peterson miss time with injury, Gerhart could be quite productive as the Vikings’ primary ball carrier. Heading into the season, Gerhart has the most fantasy value in redraft leagues as Peterson’s handcuff, with the potential to evolve as an RB3 or flex player depending on how the Vikings use him.

Anthony Dixon, RB, San Francisco 49ers – Dixon led the NFL in preseason rushing yards with 300 (on 74 carries), for what that’s worth. The former Mississippi State standout also caught 10 balls and scored four touchdowns. He sustained a rib injury in the 49ers preseason finale, although it does not appear to be serious.

The sudden retirement of Glen Coffee took away Dixon’s competition to be Gore’s backup, and the signing of Brian Westbrook doesn’t appear to be a big threat to Dixon’s playing time.  49ers’ head coach Mike Singletary professed a desire to get Dixon on the field as much as possible during the regular season.

Dixon’s expected fantasy football value this season is as a handcuff to Gore. Considering that Gore has played all 16 games just once through five NFL seasons, Dixon could end up being one of the more valuable backups in fantasy football in 2010.

Joe McKnight, RB, New York Jets – McKnight wasn’t impressive during the preseason, prompting Jets’ head coach Rex Ryan to say, after Thursday’s preseason finale, that he’s “going to make this team, I’m just not going to play him.” So frustrated are the Jets’ coaches with McKnight, that Danny Woodhead is being considered as the Jets’ No. 3 tailback behind Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson.

A fourth-round draft pick out of USC, McKnight seems to have a long way to go to make an impact on the Jets in 2010.  He fumbled three times in preseason play, and is reportedly tough to coach.  Barring injuries, he may find himself a game-day inactive more often than not.

McKnight is draft worthy in deeper dynasty and keeper leagues, but redraft league owners should avoid him altogether.

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2010 SLEEPERS:  QB |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  |  DEF   (click to view)

2010 BUSTS:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  |  DEF   (click to view)

2010 DEEP SLEEPERS:  RB  |  WR |  TE   (click to view)

2010 BREAKOUT PLAYERS:  QB  |  RB |  WR |  TE   (click to view)

2010 IMPACT ROOKIES:  QB  |  RB  |  WR |  TE   (click to view)

2010 RANKINGS:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  |  DEF  (click to view)

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