Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

This is Part 2 of a three part series that will analyze the fantasy impact of the 2009 rookie class. This week, we’re going to examine the notable freshmen RUNNING BACKS before wrapping up next week with the WR/TE class.

Knowshon Moreno - 1st Round, 12th Overall -Denver Broncos

Scouting Report: Moreno may not have prototypical RB size, but watching him, he seems to play much bigger than he is. Though he doesn’t have blazing, game breaking speed, Moreno is a tough runner who is faster in pads than his 40 time (4.62 at The Combine) suggests. Moreno’s greatest asset is the fact that he is widely regarded to be an every down RB. His exceptional skills in pass protection and receiving mean he won’t be off the field very often. Moreno is a very physical player who doesn’t take plays off. He’s definitely a between the tackles runner and playing his college ball in the elite SEC Conference will certainly assist his transition to the NFL. He’s a very well rounded, complete RB and scouts rave about his intangibles. Absolutely no one was surprised to see him be the first RB drafted this year.

2009 Fantasy Outlook: The Denver Broncos are going to give Moreno every opportunity to be a three down back this season. Under Mike Shannahan, Denver RBs were as sure a thing as death and taxes. Time will tell if that holds true for the new regime. Despite the presence of veterans Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan, Moreno will be starting sooner rather than later. He should be the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues this year and should make a solid RB3 and maybe even RB2 this season.

Keeper League Outlook: I am not willing to say that Moreno is the most talented RB in this draft class. I am not yet certain he has the most upside or the highest ceiling. I will say, however, he is the most well rounded and NFL ready RB from this draft. The major flaw in most rookie RBs is they are weak in pass protection and have poor receiving skills. Moreno excels at both. Moreno’s long term value and potential is difficult to assess. While he most definitely has the skills and potential to be a solid top 15 RB, his success will be determined by the supporting cast he is given in Denver. The Broncos have a rookie head coach, they don’t have a franchise QB, their most talented offensive player wants out, and their best RB is a rookie. Moreno’s future is bright, albeit a bit fuzzy. As far as this draft class is concerned, Moreno is the safest RB to take in a keeper or dynasty league.

Donald Brown - 1st Round, 27th Overall - Indianapolis Colts

Scouting Report: Brown is a good all around RB with above average speed (4.51 at The Combine) and a knack for breaking tackles. He has solid receiving skills and displays good vision when running. Brown was impressive in agility drills at The Combine and showed he can be explosive while leading the nation in rushing at Connecticut last season. With a build similar to Moreno, Brown doesn’t have prototypical RB size, but he is a very fluid and instinctive runner. Overall, a very similar skill set to Moreno.

2009 Fantasy Outlook: The Colts surprised everyone in taking Brown since most people thought they would use their 1st round pick to replace Marvin Harrison. Most agree that Joseph Addai’s inability to stay on the field and mediocrity when on the field was the major factor in Bill Polian selecting Brown. Even though Addai has been quite ordinary over the last two seasons, he will start the season as Indy’s No.1 RB. That means that if Addai is finally able to stay healthy, Brown will be facing an RBBC in Indianapolis this year and as long as Addai is a Colt. That being said, Brown should still be the third rookie RB taken in fantasy football drafts this season. Even if Addai stays healthy (highly unlikely), Brown will still see enough action to be a solid RB3 this season and an absolutely critical handcuff for Addai owners. 

Keeper League Outlook: Brown may actually have the most long term upside of any RB in this draft class. Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark are all signed through the 2012 season, all but assuring the Colts’ offense will remain potent for the next few years. Addai’s injury history and fairly average production should create opportunities for Brown to emerge as the feature RB in Indianapolis. I could easily see Brown developing into an elite, top 10 fantasy football RB in a few years.

Chris “Beanie” Wells - 1st Round, 31st Overall - Arizona Cardinals

Scouting Report: Wells, a product of The Ohio State University, has the perfect mix of size (6-1, 235 lbs.) and speed (4.4 40 time at Pro Day Workout). Projected to be drafted in the first 15 picks, consistency and durability issues nearly caused Wells to fall out of the 1st round. His receiving skills also leave quite a bit to be desired. His upright, high pad level running style leads to a lot of unnecessary wear and tear and Wells doesn’t always run with the power you’d expect from a man of his size. Despite these concerns, Beanie is the most physically gifted RB in this draft class.

2009 Fantasy Outlook: The defending NFC Champions were thrilled when Wells fell to them at 31st overall. Arizona’s running game was pathetic last season and its amazing Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and company were able to overcome such a significant deficiency and make it to the Super Bowl. Wells may have more upside than Moreno and Brown this season simply because it wouldn’t take much for him to win the starting job. Tim Hightower had every opportunity last season to establish himself as Arizona’s RB of the future, but instead was pitiful over the second half of the season. Needless to say, the door is wide open for Beanie to burst onto the scene. He should be the second rookie RB taken in most fantasy football leagues and could be a solid RB2 this season should he win the starting job and stay healthy.

Keeper League Outlook: No one has ever questioned Beanie’s abilities or potential. They have, however, questioned his reliability and durability. Playing in Arizona’s wide open, pass happy aerial attack will certainly open up opportunities for a healthy Beanie Wells to run wild on opponents. Wells is the ultimate long term boom or bust in this crop of rookie RBs. I think the reward far outweighs the risk. Beanie has the talent and physical ability to become an elite, top 10 RB.

LeSean McCoy - 2nd Round, 53rd Overall - Philadelphia Eagles

Scouting Report: Amazingly, the player you hear McCoy most compared to is the same player he will back up and eventually replace: Brian Westbrook. McCoy is quite small (5-10, 197 lbs.), but as you’d expect, he’s quick and incredibly elusive. He shows tremendous vision and has exceptional receiving skills. Though he’s not a very powerful runner, he does run tough. He gets lost in the pile and is solid in space and the open field.

2009 Fantasy Outlook: In landing with the Eagles, McCoy finds himself in pretty much the best situation possible for him. He gets to learn behind an elite RB who shares a similar skill set and physical makeup. Westbrook’s chronic inability to play 16 games could lead to McCoy seeing significant action this season. That being said, he’s still a mid to late round, must have handcuff for the Brian Westbrook owner in your fantasy football league this season.

Keeper League Outlook: McCoy will learn from and eventually replace Westbrook as the feature RB in Philadelphia. The Eagles offense requires a RB with a Westbrook/McCoy skill set. Because of this, McCoy has a good deal of value in keeper or dynasty leagues provided he can be stored for two, at most three seasons.

Shonn Greene - 3rd Round, 65th Overall - New York Jets

Scouting Report: Greene is Rex Ryan’s first building block to a control the ball, grind the clock, power running game. Greene is compact (5-11, 235 lbs.) and, as you’d expect, is a bruising, physical runner. In watching Greene play at Iowa last season, I saw a talented, but inconsistent RB with limited receiving skills. Greene is a between the tackles runner with the power to steamroll defenders. Though his blocking skills leave a lot to be desired, Greene keeps his legs moving after contact and rarely leaves yards on the field.

2009 Fantasy Outlook: The Jets are quite high on Greene, as they traded three draft picks to move up and acquire him. A quick look at the Gang Green’s depth chart shows Greene buried beneath Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. Looks, however, can be deceiving. With the Jets reportedly shopping Jones and Washington looking for a lucrative contract extension, Greene is most definitely a wild card this season. Running behind what might be one of the most talented offensive lines in football is an added bonus. A degree in rocket science is not needed to see that Greene’s build would be perfect in goal line situations this season. Considering all variables, Greene is easily worth a late round flier as a RB4 with significant upside.

Keeper League Outlook: Rex Ryan has given every indication that Greene is very much a part of the Jets future plans. Greene’s size and running style can cause problems for the defenses in the AFC East, which was probably a major factor in the Jets aggressive pursuit of him. As a likely two down back, Greene doesn’t have the long term upside as the other rookie RBs we’ve discussed, but he certainly has enough upside to warrant a roster spot in a big keeper/dynasty league (14-16 teams) or a league with deep rosters.

Past Rookie Reports:  QB | RB | WR | TE

———————

Remember to check back next Friday as we’ll finish the Fantasy Football Rookie Report by taking a look at the freshmen WR class. If you have any fantasy football questions, please don’t hesitate to email me at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).