Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

::The Bruno Boys are proud to introduce our newest guest columnist Josh Fasulo. Josh is the owner of Fantasy Sports Shack and will be tackling a new weekly feature in which we take a deeper look at targets, touches, rookies and overlooked players. Enjoy and let us know if you have any suggestions::

Fantasy football is all about the bottom line: production.  Yards and scores are all we care about.  But fielding a team of players who give you the best opportunity to accumulate those stats week-in and week-out is about more than just last week’s numbers.

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” evaluates how the week gone by can help project future production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the articles examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise” I will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up.  Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

Trends tell us that the more times a player is targeted and the more touches he gets, the more likely he is to consistently post solid numbers. Think about this: Bengals’ receiver Chris Henry had 92 yards in Week 5, however, he did it on just 3 catches and was targeted only 5 times.  Over the past three weeks, Henry has been targeted just 11 times, resulting in 6 catches for 147 yards and no touchdowns. Not great. That trend tells us not to expect much from him in Week 6.  On the flipside, Chad Ochocinco hasn’t put up huge stats over the past three weeks (172 yards, 2 TD), but he leads the league in targets over that span (32), and could be on the verge of breaking out.  In Week 5, he was targeted 10 times, and hauled in 7 balls for 94 yards.  In Week 6 against a mediocre Houston Texans secondary, if targeted at the same rate Ochocinco could easily break 100 yards and hit paydirt.

Speaking of breaking out, Miles Austin exploded in Week 5, leading the league in targets (15), catches (10), receiving yards (250) and TDs (2).  Due to Roy Williams’ injury, and based off his 8 target Week 4, 10 targets could have been expected, but no one could have seen this performance coming.  Don’t count on this kind of production every week, but the trend, coupled with inconsistent production from the rest of the Cowboy receivers, tells us that Austin could continue to post solid numbers when the Cowboys return from their Week 6 bye.  He’s a decent WR3/flex-option, and if the targets continue, a borderline WR2.

Joseph Addai never puts up stellar numbers, and everyone talks about his timeshare with Donald Brown, but Addai continues to get the ball.  In Week 5, he was 4th among running backs with 24 touches.  Over the past three weeks he’s averaged 19+ touches, 82 yards and 1 TD, whereas Brown averaged 11 touches, 64 yards and has scored just once.  When the Colts return from their Week 6 bye, Addai should continue to get the majority of the work.  As for using the touches trend to project Week 6, Knowshon Moreno (25 Week 5/62 over last three), Kevin Smith (23 Week 5/65 over last three) and Brandon Jacobs (22 Week 5/70 over last three) are all good plays with favorable matchups.

And though he doesn’t necessarily have a “favorable” matchup, don’t give up on Steve Slaton.  Slaton had 19 touches for 98 yards in Week 5, and over the past three weeks, he’s averaged 19 touches for 100 yards while scoring 2 touchdowns.  However, do be wary of Willis McGahee.  With just 2 touches in Week 5, and 15 over the past three weeks, McGahee is plummeting towards your leagues waiver wire.  It’s hard to explain why a guy who leads the league in total touchdowns (7 total – 5 rushing, 2 receiving) is riding the pine, but Ray Rice is obviously the man in Baltimore (52 touches over the last three weeks).  McGahee still has value as a goal-line back, but if he doesn’t score, he could put up a fantasy football donut.

Now it’s time to take a look at the Week 5 Targets & Touches Top 50.  Pay attention to the 3-week trends, and when evaluating your Week 6 starting roster, don’t forget to check matchups!

Some heavily targeted players over the past thee weeks weren’t looked to much in Week 5: Kenny Britt (5), Steve Smith-NYG (4), Randy Moss (4), DeSean Jackson (3), Mario Manningham (3), Jerricho Cotchery (2), Calvin Johnson (1 – injury), Derrick Mason (1) and Mike Sims-Walker (0 – did not play).

Finally here is a list of some important players coming off Week 5 byes (and their previous 2 games targets/touches): Antonio Gates (19), Vincent Jackson (15), Marques Colston (13), Donald Driver (13), Greg Olson (13), Jeremy Shockey (13), Greg Jennings (9), Devin Hester (9), Ryan Grant (42), Matt Forte (41), Pierre Thomas (37), Reggie Bush (25), Darren Sproles (21), LaDainian Tomlinson (8 – 1 game).

ROOKIE ON THE RISE

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles - Maclin’s performance in Week 5 opened some eyes: 6 catches, 142 yards, 2 TD.  Donovan McNabb looked his way 8 times, and in Week 3, before the Eagles’ bye, Maclin was targeted 6 times by Kevin Kolb.  With the Eagles facing a weak Oakland defense on Sunday (31st overall, 15th against the pass), Maclin could be in for another solid day, even if incumbent starter Kevin Curtis returns from injury.  As the season rolls on, Maclin should continue to grow, and will likely be a full-time starter sooner than later.

Week 6 Projection: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 61 receiving yards
Remainder of the Season Projection: 106 targets, 54 catches, 621 yards, 4 TD

MR OVERLOOKED: SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

Muhsin Muhammad, WR, Carolina Panthers - Muhammad has posted consistent, yet unproductive numbers thus far in 2009.  That said, wild card Jake Delhomme targeted him 9 times in Week 3 and 10 times in Week 5, and had the Panthers played in Week 4, you can bet the veteran would have seen the ball coming his way 9 or 10 times.  Against a Tampa Bay secondary that ranks 21st against the pass, this could be the week Muhammad’s targets turn into production.

Week 6 Projection: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 78 yards, 1 TD

::The Bruno Boys are proud to introduce our newest guest columnist Josh Fasulo. Josh is the owner of Fantasy Sports Shack and will be tackling a new weekly feature in which we take a deeper look at targets, touches, rookies and overlooked players. Enjoy and let us know if you have any suggestions::

Week 6 Rankings:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE |  K |  DEF   (click to read)

Week 6 Start & Sit:  START ‘EM |  SIT ‘EM   (click to read)

Week 6 Waiver Wire Advice:  PICK THEM UP  |  CUT THEM LOOSE    (click to read)

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