Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Thank you to all the Bruno Boys faithful who have found your way to my column throughout the 2009 season.  Without you, “Fasulo’s Forecaster” would not be possible.  This will mark the final installment of the Forecaster for the 2009 season.  We’ll review the year that was, and take a quick glimpse into 2010 with special “Rookie on the Rise” and “Mr. Overlooked” segments.  I hope this column has helped you in your quest to fantasy football greatness, and until next we meet, have a great new year!  - Josh Fasulo

TARGETS & TOUCHES

If we were all to go back to August and redraft our 2009 fantasy football teams, I’m sure a few things would be different.  A redraft might find the consensus top pick to be Chris Johnson, not Adrian Peterson.  Thomas Jones and Ray Rice would likely slide into the first round, and the likes of Brian Westbrook and Steve Slaton might be ignored altogether.  But, as my father-in-law likes to say, hindsight is twenty-twenty.

It didn’t take a crystal ball to draft surefire stars like Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson and Randy Moss.  Peterson finished the season fourth among running backs in touches (358), third in yards from scrimmage (1,825) and first in touchdowns (18).  Jones-Drew had a few huge games to go with a few duds, but there’s no denying his overall productivity: 365 touches, 1,765 yards, 16 TD.  As for Johnson and Moss, well, Johnson was the most targeted receiver in the NFL (171), and his numbers reflect as such: 101 receptions, 1,569 yards, 9 TD.  Moss (138) wasn’t targeted as frequently as the Houston Texans’ star, but his fantasy stat-line was comparable thanks to a league-leading 13 touchdown catches (to go with 1,268 yards).

If only we had a crystal ball to see that Cedric Benson would get 301 carries in 2009, despite missing three games due to injury.  Benson’s 318 touches, 1,362 total yards and six touchdowns far exceeded expectations, but he wasn’t the only player to step it up this year.  Dallas Cowboys’ wide receiver Miles Austin played himself into the “elite” receiver category in 2009.  Austin’s 81 catches (on 124 targets) led to 1,320 yards and 11 scores, good for the third best fantasy-line for a wide receiver behind only Johnson and Randy Moss.  In Pittsburgh, Rashard Mendenhall took advantage of an injury to Willie Parker, took the Steelers’ RB1 job and rumbled his way to 1,108 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground, while adding 25 receptions for 261 yards and a score through the air.  Both Austin and Mendenhall have solidified their jobs atop the depth charts for 2010.

A few others who are have locked in their jobs for 2010 include: Minnesota Vikings WR Sidney Rice (121 targets, 83 recs, 1,312 yards, 8 TD), New York Giants WR Steve Smith (157 targets, 107 recs, 1,220 yards, 7 TD), Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (230 touches, 1,417 yards, 8 TD), Denver Broncos rookie RB Knowshon Moreno (275 touches, 1,160 yards, 9 TD) and Arizona Cardinals rookie RB Beanie Wells (188 touches, 936 yards, 7 TD). 

Though they’ve locked in their 2010 spots for their NFL teams, fantasy football owners have to be wary of Moreno and Wells in 2010 simply because of the undeniable existence of the “sophomore slump”.  In 2009, a handful of second-year players, some first and second rounders, fell victim to the cursed slump, and thus, many fantasy teams were adversely impacted.  Matt Forte, a top five pick in many leagues, couldn’t crack the 1,000-yard rushing barrier, and though his receiving prowess netted him 57 catches and 471 yards, his 1,400 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns were not worthy of a first round draft pick.  Even worse, Steve Slaton battled injury and fumbles, and totaled just 854 yards (437 rushing, 417 receiving) and seven scores.  Perhaps, however, no season was more disappointing than that of Denver Broncos WR Eddie Royal.  After 91 catches, 980 yards and five touchdowns in his 2008 rookie campaign, Royal fell off in 2009 to the tune of 37 catches on just 79 targets, 345 yards and zero receiving scores.  For a mid-to-late round “sleeper”, Royal was a major bust.

Speaking of busts, it’s hard to find one from the tight end position in 2009.  In fact, eight tight ends had at least 70 catches, and 11 had six or more touchdowns.  Some could argue Jason Witten was a bust because he failed to live up to the top billing he received going into the season, but despite only two scores, Witten (124 targets, 94 recs) was one of just three tight ends to crack the 1,000-yard receiving plateau.  The other two, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark, were two of the top three at the position in ’09.  Gates (114 targets, 79 recs) amassed 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns, while Clark (132 targets, 100 recs) exploded for 1,106 yards and 10 scores.  Maybe the best of the bunch, though, was the San Francisco 49ers’ Vernon Davis, who hauled in 78 balls on 129 targets for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns.  And to dip a little deeper, if it wasn’t for an injury after just eight games, the Houston Texans’ Owen Daniels might have put up the best numbers of them all.  He finished the year with 40 catches on 58 targets, 519 yards and five scores, which, over a full season, translates to 116 targets, 80 catches, 1,038 yards and 10 touchdowns. 

Okay, so we’ve discussed some of the top dogs from 2009, some of the disappointments and a few of the sleepers who stepped it up, now it’s time to dole out MVP honors. 

Runner-up: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Rice was a mid-round sleeper in August, and ran away with the Ravens’ RB1 job – literally – as soon as the season started.  The stocky second-year back had anything but a sophomore slump.  Rice reeled off 332 touches, led all running backs in receptions (78) and receiving yards (702), ran for over 1,300 yards and reached pay dirt eight times.  As one of two players in the NFL to surpass the 2,000 yard-from-scrimmage mark in 2009 (not at the QB position), Rice is a deserving recipient of this year’s MVP runner-up.

MVP: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Johnson is a beast.  We could just leave it at that, but we won’t.  The numbers speak for themselves: 408 touches, 358 rushing attempts, 2,006 rushing yards, 2,509 yards from scrimmage, 16 touchdowns, 11 straight 100-yard games, 12 on the season.  Like Rice, Johnson avoided the sophomore slump.  In fact, he laughed it off as myth.  I played in a league with a guy who drafted Johnson with the 12th pick in the first round, and snagged Ray Rice in the 8th.  Needless to say, he was our league champion.  The only question surrounding Johnson next year might be the workload he endured this year.  Despite that, it’s a good bet the prize of the Tennessee Titans will be the top prize in 2010 fantasy football drafts.

Here’s a look at the final Targets & Touches boards for 2009.

WIDE RECEIVER TARGETS

	Player	Games	Targets	Recs	Yards	YPC	TD
1	Andre Johnson	16	171	101	1,569	15.5	9
2	Roddy White	16	165	85	1,153	13.5	11
3	Wes Welker	14	162	123	1,348	10.9	4
4	Steve Smith (NYG)	16	157	107	1,220	11.4	7
5	Brandon Marshall	15	154	101	1,120	11.0	10
6	Larry Fitzgerald	16	153	97	1,092	11.2	13
7	Reggie Wayne	16	149	100	1,264	12.6	10
8	Santonio Holmes	16	138	79	1,248	15.7	5
-	Randy Moss	16	138	83	1,264	15.2	13
10	Hines Ward	16	137	95	1,167	12.2	6
11	Calvin Johnson	14	136	67	984	14.6	5
12	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	16	135	79	911	11.5	3
13	Derrick Mason	16	134	73	1,028	14.0	7
14	Steve Smith (Car)	15	129	66	979	14.8	7
15	Anquan Boldin	15	128	85	1,029	12.1	5
-	Chad Ochocinco	16	128	72	1,047	14.5	9
17	Miles Austin	16	124	81	1,320	16.2	11
18	Sidney Rice	16	121	83	1,312	15.8	8
19	Santana Moss	16	120	70	902	12.8	3
20	DeSean Jackson	15	118	63	1,167	18.5	9
-	Greg Jennings	16	118	68	1,113	16.3	4
22	Davone Bess	16	113	76	758	9.9	2
23	Donald Driver	16	112	70	1.061	15.1	6
24	Mike Sims-Walker	15	111	63	869	13,7	7
25	Terrell Owens	16	109	55	829	15.0	5
26	Marques Colston	16	106	70	1,074	15.3	9
-	Vincent Jackson	15	106	68	1,167	17.1	9
28	Nate Burleson	13	103	63	812	12.8	3
-	Torry Holt	15	103	51	722	14.1	0
30	Mario Manningham	14	99	57	822	14.4	5
31	Donnie Avery	16	97	47	589	12.5	5
32	Jerricho Cotchery	14	96	57	821	14.4	3
-	Louis Murphy	16	96	34	521	15.3	4
34	Lee Evans	16	95	44	612	13.9	7
-	Mohamed Massaquoi	16	95	34	624	18.3	3
-	Nate Washington	16	95	47	569	12.1	6
37	Braylon Edwards	16	94	45	680	15.1	4
38	Bernard Berrian	16	92	55	618	11.2	4
-	Chris Chambers	16	92	45	730	16.2	5
-	Pierre Garcon	15	92	47	765	16.2	4
41	Percy Harvin	15	91	60	790	13.1	6
-	Devin Hester	13	91	57	757	13.2	3
43	Austin Collie	16	90	60	676	11.2	7
-	Michael Jenkins	15	90	50	635	12.7	1
-	Jeremy Maclin	15	90	55	762	13.8	4
46	Muhsin Muhammad	14	89	53	581	10.9	1
47	Earl Bennett	16	88	54	717	13.2	2
-	Bryant Johnson	16	88	36	426	11.8	3
49	Dwayne Bowe	11	87	47	589	12.5	4
-	Jabar Gaffney	16	87	54	732	13.5	2

 

TIGHT END TARGETS

	Player	Games	Targets	Recs	Yards	YPC	TD
1	Tony Gonzalez	16	135	83	867	10.4	6
2	Dallas Clark	16	132	100	1,106	11.0	10
3	Vernon Davis	16	129	78	965	12.3	13
4	Kellen Winslow	16	127	77	884	11.4	5
5	Jason Witten	16	124	94	1,030	10.9	2
6	Antonio Gates	16	114	79	1,157	14.6	8
7	Brent Celek	16	112	76	971	12.7	8
8	Greg Olsen	16	108	60	612	10.2	8
9	Heath Miller	16	98	76	789	10.3	6
10	Zach Miller	14	88	59	759	12.8	3
11	John Carlson	16	83	51	574	11.2	7
12	Dustin Keller	16	82	45	522	11.6	2
13	Visanthe Shiancoe	16	79	56	566	10.1	11
14	Fred Davis	16	76	48	509	10.6	6
15	Todd Heap	16	75	53	593	11.1	6
16	Jermichael Finley	13	71	55	676	12.2	5
17	Bo Scaife	14	70	45	440	9.7	1
18	Kevin Boss	15	69	42	567	13.5	5
19	Jeremy Shockey	14	67	48	569	11.8	3
20	Randy McMichael	16	62	34	332	9.7	1
21	Marcedes Lewis	15	59	32	518	16.1	2
22	Owen Daniels	8	58	40	519	12.9	5
23	Donald Lee	16	55	37	260	7.0	1
-	Brandon Pettigrew	11	55	31	352	11.3	2
25	Anthony Fasano	14	54	31	339	10.9	2

 

 

RUNNING BACK TARGETS

	Player	Games	Targets	Recs	Yards	YPC	TD
1	Ray Rice	16	101	78	702	9.0	1
2	Tim Hightower	16	80	63	428	6.9	0
3	Frank Gore	14	75	52	406	7.8	3
4	Steven Jackson	15	74	50	314	6.2	0
5	Matt Forte	16	72	57	471	8.2	0
6	Chris Johnson	16	71	50	503	10.0	2
-	Maurice Jones-Drew	16	71	53	374	7.0	1
8	Reggie Bush	14	68	47	335	7.1	3
9	Joseph Addai	15	63	51	336	6.5	3
10	Fred Jackson	16	60	46	371	8.0	2
11	Chester Taylor	16	59	44	389	8.8	1
12	Justin Forsett	16	57	41	350	8.5	1
-	Adrian Peterson	16	57	43	436	10.1	0
-	Darren Sproles	16	57	45	497	11.0	4
15	Jamaal Charles	15	56	40	297	7.4	1
-	Kevin Smith	13	56	40	409	10.2	1
17	LeSean McCoy	16	55	40	308	7.7	0
-	Steve Slaton	11	55	44	417	9.4	4
19	Kevin Faulk	15	53	37	301	8.1	1
-	Ricky Williams	16	53	35	264	7.5	2
21	Jerome Harrison	14	50	34	220	6.4	2
22	Pierre Thomas	14	45	39	302	7.7	2
23	Julius Jones	14	43	35	232	6.6	2
24	Knowshon Moreno	16	41	28	213	7.6	2
-	DeAngelo Williams	13	41	29	252	8.6	0

 

RUNNING BACK TOUCHES REPORT

	Player	Games	Touches	Rush-Rec	Yards	YPC	TD
1	Chris Johnson	16	408	358-50	2,509	5.6	16
2	Steven Jackson	15	375	325-50	1,738	4.4	4
3	Maurice Jones-Drew	16	365	312-53	1,765	4.5	16
4	Adrian Peterson	16	358	315-43	1,825	4.4	18
5	Thomas Jones	16	342	332-10	1,460	4.2	14
6	Ray Rice	16	332	254-78	2,041	5.3	8
7	Cedric Benson	13	318	301-17	1,362	4.2	6
8	Matt Forte	16	315	258-57	1,400	3.6	4
9	Ryan Grant	16	307	282-25	1,450	4.4	11
10	Fred Jackson	16	284	238-46	1,460	4.5	5 (1 pass)
11	Frank Gore	14	281	229-52	1,526	4.9	13
12	Ricky Williams	16	276	241-35	1,385	4.7	13
13	Knowshon Moreno	16	275	247-28	1,160	3.8	9
14	Joseph Addai	15	270	219-51	1,186	3.8	14
15	Rashard Mendenhall	16	267	242-25	1,369	4.6	8
16	Kevin Smith	13	257	217-40	1,156	3.4	5
17	DeAngelo Williams	13	245	216-29	1,369	5.2	7
18	LaDainian Tomlinson	16	243	223-20	884	3.3	12
19	Brandon Jacobs	15	242	224-18	1,019	3.7	6
20	Marion Barber	16	240	214-26	1,153	4.4	7
21	Jonathan Stewart	16	239	221-18	1,272	5.1	11
22	Cadillac Williams	16	238	209-29	1,035	3.9	7
23	Jamaal Charles	16	230	190-40	1,417	5.9	9 (1 return)
24	Jerome Harrison	15	228	194-34	1,082	4.4	7
25	Julius Jones	14	212	177-35	895	3.7	4
26	Laurence Maroney	15	208	194-14	856	3.9	9
27	Tim Hightower	16	206	143-63	1,026	4.2	8
28	LeSean McCoy	16	195	155-40	945	4.1	4
29	Larry Johnson	14	193	178-15	642	3.2	0
30	Beanie Wells	16	188	176-12	936	4.5	7
31	Pierre Thomas	15	186	147-39	1,095	5.4	8
32	Ahmad Bradshaw	15	184	163-21	985	4.8	7
33	Michael Turner	11	183	178-5	906	4.9	10
34	Mike Bell	15	176	172-4	666	3.8	5
35	Steve Slaton	11	175	131-44	854	3.3	7
36	Jason Snelling	14	172	142-30	872	4.3	5
37	Ronnie Brown	9	161	147-14	768	4.4	9 (1 pass)
38	Justin Forsett	16	156	115-41	969	5.4	5
39	Correll Buckhalter	15	151	120-31	882	5.4	1
-	Jamal Lewis	11	151	143-8	588	3.5	0
41	Marshawn Lynch	13	148	120-28	629	3.8	2
42	Justin Fargas	14	146	129-17	604	3.8	3
43	Michael Bush	16	140	123-17	694	4.8	3
44	Darren Sproles	16	138	93-45	840	3.7	8 (1 return)
45	Chester Taylor	16	137	93-44	721	3.6	2
46	Felix Jones	16	135	116-19	804	5.9	3
-	Derrick Ward	15	135	115-20	564	3.6	3
48	Clinton Portis	8	133	124-9	551	4.0	2
49	Darren McFadden	13	125	104-21	601	3.4	1
50	Willis McGahee	16	124	109-15	629	5.0	14

 

ROOKIE ON THE RISE: ROOKIE TO WATCH IN 2010

C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

At 195 pounds, Spiller is somewhat undersized for a 5’11” back, but his skills translate well to the NFL, which is why he is the top runner on most experts’ 2010 NFL draft boards.  In 2009, the senior tailback ran for 1,212 yards on 216 attempts (5.6 ypc), scored 12 rushing touchdowns and added 34 receptions for 503 yards and four more scores.  During his four-year Clemson career, Spiller accumulated 729 touches, 4,967 yards and 43 touchdowns.  Pre-combine, he is considered the fastest back in the draft, and has been clocked at 4.37 in the 40-yard dash.  Should he end up in Tampa Bay or Washington, Spiller could be thrust into a full-time situation immediately.  It wouldn’t shock me to see a team like the Houston Texans or even the San Diego Chargers trade up to try and get him.  Regardless where he ends up, C.J. Spiller is a rookie to watch in 2010.

MR. OVERLOOKED: SLEEPER TO WATCH IN 2010

Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots

When Wes Welker was lost for the season in Week 17 with a torn ACL and MCL, the whole of New England feared it was a sign the 2009 season was over.  Welker’s 162 targets were third most in the league in ’09, and his 123 receptions were by far top in the NFL. In just 14 games, the shifty receiver managed 1,348 yards and four touchdowns.  How would the Patriots replace the productivity?  In steps unheralded rookie, 7th round pick Julian Edelman.  A quarterback at Kent State, Edelman played in just 11 games for New England in 2009, starting seven of them.  Sandwiched between an eight-catch, 98-yard Week 2 and a 10-catch, 103-yard Week 17 were several mediocre games and several more Did-Not-Plays.  Edelman will need to step it up in the playoffs for New England to have a chance, and with Welker’s status for next season questionable, there could be a starting spot waiting for the young receiver when 2010 rolls around.  It won’t hurt that Tom Brady will be the one throwing him the football.