Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist,Josh Fasulo, the owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production. The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

Welcome back, Bruno Boys Nation.  Due to a storm of injuries in Week 10, the Forecast for the coming weeks looks a bit cloudy, specifically at the running back spot.  Let’s take a closer look.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

In Week 10, Michael Turner (high ankle sprain), Cedric Benson (sore abductor muscle), Ronnie Brown (ankle/foot), Brian Westbrook (concussion) and Julius Jones (bruised lung) all left their respective games due to injury. Add Clinton Portis, who had already been deemed “out” prior to week 10, and the injuries opened the door for some unheralded backup running backs to put up fantasy points.

Filling in for Portis, Ladell Betts rumbled for 120 yards and a touchdown on 27 touches (26 carries). Betts’ prospects for Week 11 at Dallas depend on Portis’ progress from a concussion. After the devastating blow to Philadelphia Eagles’ RB1 Brian Westbrook – who suffered his second concussion this month – the Washington Redskins could be and should be cautious with their starting tailback. Some reports state Westbrook’s latest concussion could be career threatening.  We’ll all keep our fingers crossed for the Eagles’ top playmaker. LeSean McCoy – who received only 6 touches and managed just 23 yards on Sunday – will benefit on the field from Westbrook’s absence. 

In the absence of Michael Turner – who bowled his way to 111 yards on 9 touches (all carries) before leaving Sunday’s loss to Carolina – Jason Snelling filled in admirably (21 touches, 93 total yards, TD). With Turner’s status for Week 11 against the New York Giants in question, Snelling could again see 20-plus touches, even if Jerious Norwood returns from missing the past 5 games. And though 20-plus touches may be unlikely, Week 11 could see more of Cincinnati Bengals’ rookie Bernard Scott. Scott got the majority of the action against Pittsburgh after Cedric Benson left the field, and though his 14 touches only amounted to 54 yards, he returned a kickoff for 6 and showed a willingness to run hard. Cincinnati added Kansas City Chiefs’ castoff Larry Johnson for depth, but Scott would likely be the starter were Benson to miss any time. Against the lowly Oakland Raiders in Week 11, Scott could be a solid flex option.

In Dolphin/Wildcat country, Ronnie Brown managed 14 touches, 98 yards and a TD before switching his spikes for a set of crutches. He will likely be sidelined in Week 11, and as a result, the Thursday night version of the Wildcat may be a bit subdued. Ricky Williams (22 touches, 107 yards) will pick up the slack against the 25th ranked Carolina Panthers rush defense. In the opposite corner of the country, Julius Jones’ lung injury blew open an already cracked door in Seattle for Justin Forsett. Forsett took advantage by taking advantage of the Arizona Cardinals for 149 total yards and a score on 22 touches (17 rushes, 5 receptions). Forsett will start Week 11, but is presumably a bad play against the Minnesota Vikings’ purple wall. However, if he’s available in your league, go get him!  Beyond Minnesota, Forsett has a user-friendly schedule for the remainder of 2009 (@ St. Louis, San Francisco, @ Houston, Tampa Bay, @ Green Bay).

Not the entire “Touches” world was turned upside down on Sunday. The usual suspects continued to lead the charge as Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson each played with the rock 35 times, Frank Gore got into the action 29 times, Matt Forte and Maurice Jones-Drew each went for more than 25, and Ray Rice was his usual solid self (23 touches). 

On the “Targets” side of the game, it was almost business as usual. Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne both had big days, each with 12-plus targets, 100-plus yards and 2 TDs. Several other WR1s were at or near the top of the targets charts: DeSean Jackson (16), Devin Hester (14), Calvin Johnson (13), Dwayne Bowe (11), Roddy White (11) .  T.J. Houshmandzadeh led the league with 17. 

Of note: Dwayne Bowe has been suspended 4 games by the NFL (effective immediately) after testing positive for performance-enhancing substances. Roy Williams had 105 yards and a TD in Week 10, and over the past 3 games, Williams has 2 more targets (22), 2 more catches (12) and 69 more yards than Miles Austin. Jason Avant exploded in Philadelphia for 156 yards on 8 catches (9 targets). In Kansas City, Jamaal Charles (Week 10’s Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week) finally got his touches (22, 18 carries-4 receptions) and reeled off 117 total yards and a score against the Oakland Raiders.

Now, onto the Week 10 “Targets and Touches” grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

TARGETS REPORT

	Player	Wk 10 Targets	Wk 10 Recs	Wk 10 Yards	Wk 10 TD	3-Wk Targets	3-Wk Recs	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	17	9	165	0	32	19	223	1
2	DeSean Jackson	16	8	91	0	25	13	198	1
-	Randy Moss	16	9	179	2	*27	15	326	3
4	Devin Hester	14	7	48	0	34	20	223	0
-	Santonio Holmes	14	7	88	0	*20	13	181	0
6	Steven Jackson	13	9	45	0	*18	12	62	0
-	Calvin Johnson	13	8	84	0	*22	10	111	0
8	Reggie Wayne	12	10	126	2	41	30	337	3
9	Dwayne Bowe	11	6	91	0	*21	10	165	0
-	Brent Celek	11	6	47	1	22	13	147	3
-	Jerricho Cotchery	11	6	68	1	*19	9	138	1
-	Pierre Garcon	11	3	50	1	27	12	163	1
-	Tony Gonzalez	11	6	67	0	26	17	197	1
-	Wes Welker	11	9	94	0	*21	18	178	0
-	Roddy White	11	7	98	0	29	14	233	1
-	Kellen Winslow	11	7	102	0	*16	11	159	1
17	Anquan Boldin	10	8	105	0	*16	11	128	0
-	Brandon Marshall	10	5	134	2	33	20	270	2
-	Greg Olsen	10	7	75	0	21	15	186	3
-	Hines Ward	10	4	24	0	*19	11	68	2
21	Miles Austin	9	4	20	0	20	10	130	2
-	Jason Avant	9	8	156	0	13	12	231	0
-	Laveranues Coles	9	5	67	0	*18	11	139	0
-	Larry Fitzgerald	9	7	73	1	33	22	262	3
-	Matt Forte	9	8	120	0	20	16	225	0
-	Brandon Gibson	9	7	93	0	*10	7	93	0
-	Michael Jenkins	9	4	15	0	19	9	86	0
-	Chris Johnson	9	9	100	0	16	14	136	0
-	Dustin Keller	9	6	58	0	*22	14	134	1
-	Sidney Rice	9	7	201	0	*14	11	241	0
31	Bernard Berrian	8	3	22	0	*14	6	69	1
-	Deion Branch	8	4	50	0	15	10	111	1
-	Austin Collie	8	6	45	0	22	14	137	0
-	Justin Forsett	8	5	26	0	18	11	85	0
-	Mike Furrey	8	6	30	0	*9	7	39	0
-	Antonio Gates	8	7	78	0	22	15	194	0
-	Jeremy Maclin	8	6	76	1	21	13	167	2
-	Muhsin Muhammad	8	6	91	0	**8	6	91	0
-	Dennis Northcutt	8	6	48	0	13	6	48	0
-	Jason Witten	8	5	47	0	24	16	126	0
41	Davone Bess	7	4	72	0	26	14	146	0
-	Deon Butler	7	3	26	0	8	4	34	0
-	Michael Crabtree	7	4	48	0	24	13	159	0
-	Joshua Cribbs	7	1	10	0	*8	2	33	0
-	Johnnie Lee Higgins	7	4	41	0	*11	5	47	0
-	Greg Jennings	7	4	45	0	28	16	187	1
-	Chad Ochocinco	7	2	29	0	*16	7	95	0
-	Terrell Owens	7	3	85	0	*15	8	124	0
-	Mike Sims-Walker	7	3	49	1	18	11	205	2
-	Roy Williams	7	5	105	1	22	12	199	2

TOUCHES REPORT

	Player	Wk 10 Touches	Wk 10 Rush-Rec	Wk 10 Yards	Wk 10 TD	3-Wk Touches	3-Wk Rush-Rec	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	Steven Jackson	35	26-9	176	1	*60	48-12	342	2
-	Chris Johson	35	26-9	232	2	89	75-14	631	6
3	Frank Gore	29	25-4	125	1	69	53-16	417	3
4	Matt Forte	28	20-8	161	0	67	51-16	389	2
5	Ladell Betts	27	26-1	120	1	*43	41-2	213	2
6	Maurice Jones-Drew	26	24-2	145	1	67	61-6	452	4
7	LaDainian Tomlinson	24	24-0	96	2	56	54-2	182	4
8	Ray Rice	23	20-3	104	1	71	55-16	347	3
9	Jamaal Charles	22	18-4	117	1	*31	24-7	172	1
-	Justin Forsett	22	17-5	149	1	30	19-11	228	1
-	Ricky Williams	22	20-2	107	0	40	35-5	211	1
12	Ryan Grant	21	19-2	87	0	55	50-5	234	1
-	Thomas Jones	21	21-0	77	1	*49	48-1	207	1
-	Jason Snelling	21	18-3	93	1	**21	18-3	93	1
15	Knowshon Moreno	20	18-2	104	0	37	33-4	142	1
-	Adrian Peterson	20	18-2	143	2	*46	43-3	284	3
-	DeAngelo Williams	20	19-1	122	0	66	63-3	441	2
18	Beanie Wells	18	16-2	117	2	39	37-2	236	2
19	Michael Bush	16	14-2	129	0	*25	21-4	170	0
20	Tim Hightower	15	10-5	58	0	47	33-14	242	1
-	Laurence Maroney	15	13-2	46	1	*35	33-2	128	2
-	Kevin Smith	15	12-3	65	0	50	41-9	235	0
23	Ronnie Brown	14	12-2	98	1	43	38-5	191	2
-	Kevin Faulk	14	12-2	86	0	*20	14-6	136	0
-	Rashard Mendenhall	14	13-1	41	0	*37	35-2	205	0
-	Bernard Scott	14	13-1	54	1 (return)	*14	13-1	54	1 (return)
-	Cadillac Williams	14	14-0	52	1	*30	30-0	108	1
28	Marshawn Lynch	13	9-4	55	0	*25	18-7	104	0
-	Willis McGahee	13	13-0	35	0	16	15-1	38	0
30	Joseph Addai	12	10-2	68	2	53	44-9	246	5 (1 pass)
-	Pierre Thomas	12	11-1	42	0	46	38-8	223	3
32	Rock Cartwright	11	9-2	50	0	*19	16-3	65	0
-	Fred Jackson	11	8-3	98	1 (pass)	*20	17-3	126	1 (pass)
-	Jamal Lewis	11	10-1	41	0	*27	26-1	110	0
-	Jonathan Stewart	11	11-0	82	2	42	41-1	207	4
36	Justin Fargas	10	10-0	41	1	*31	28-3	120	2
-	Derrick Ward	10	10-0	34	0	*17	14-3	93	1
38	Kolby Smith	9	9-0	12	0	*14	13-1	33	0
-	Michael Turner	9	9-0	111	0	49	47-2	442	3
40	Marion Barber	8	5-3	37	0	38	31-7	158	1
-	Mike Bell	8	8-0	30	0	30	30-0	96	0
-	Reggie Bush	8	6-2	98	2	21	10-11	165	3
-	Chris Jennings	8	7-1	28	0	**8	7-1	28	0
-	Chester Taylor	8	7-1	23	0	*15	12-3	50	0
-	Brian Westbrook	8	6-2	54	0	**8	6-2	54	0
46	Cedric Benson	7	7-0	22	0	*41	41-0	139	1
-	Shonn Greene	7	7-0	26	0	*15	15-0	44	0
-	Brian Leonard	7	4-3	32	0	*13	7-6	62	0
-	Maurice Morris	7	6-1	14	0	28	24-4	133	0
50	Le’Ron McClain	6	3-3	29	0	13	8-5	86	0
-	LeSean McCoy	6	3-3	23	0	37	27-10	230	1
-	Louis Rankin	6	3-3	48	0	*6	3-3	48	0
-	Darren Sproles	6	2-4	45	0	18	8-10	114	0

ROOKIE ON THE RISE

Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals

It has been a seesaw rookie campaign for Chris “Beanie” Wells, the standout 1st round pick from Ohio State, but his football stars seem to be aligning. Arizona’s Week 10 win over the Seattle Seahawks was Wells’ finest hour. He reeled off 18 carries for 85 yards and 2 TDs and added 2 receptions for 32 yards. In the fantasy football world, that amounts to 23 fantasy points. Wells got 3 more touches than Tim Hightower against Seattle, and though Hightower continues to see more action on passing downs, Wells has started to show that he is the better NFL running back. If you can get your hands on him, Wells is a great play in Week 11 at St. Louis (28th versus the rush) and a solid play for the fantasy football playoffs, Weeks 14-16 (@ San Francisco, @ Detroit, St. Louis). 

Week 11 Projection: 16 touches, 72 yards, TD

Remainder of the Season Projection: 98 touches, 492 yards, 4 TD

MR. OVERLOOKED: SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

One week Wallace is spotlighted in “Rookie on the Rise”, the next he’s showcased as the “Sleeper of the Week”. Sure, Wallace was targeted only 5 times on Sunday and managed just 1 catch for 16 yards, but Ben Roethlisberger was not and is not hesitant to throw the ball Wallace’s way. (Note: Big Ben underthrew the rookie on more than one (deep) occasion.) Though Wallace’s underwhelming performance came against a Cincinnati Bengals’ pass defense that is not stellar (21st in the league), he and the Steelers are sure to rebound in Week 11 against a Kansas City Chiefs’ pass D that is even worse (24th).

Week 11 Projection: 7 targets, 4 catches, 65 yards, TD

Week 11 Rankings:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  | DEF    (click to read)

Week 11 Start & Sit:  START ‘EM  |  SIT ‘EM    (click to read)

Week 11 Waiver Wire Advice:  PICK THEM UP  |  CUT THEM LOOSE    (click to read)

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