Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up.  Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

If you’re reading this, it means you’re still alive in your fantasy football league.  There’s no beating around the bush here; it’s win or go home.  Fantasy football adage states, you always start your best players, and at no time is this truer than in the playoffs.  However, when you are in a quandary over a pair of RB or WR2’s, or whom to play in your flex position, go with the trends; go with players who are getting the targets and touches.  Pierre Thomas was the trend play last year, and he won a lot of leagues for a lot of teams.  A couple years ago, Kolby Smith was the guy.  Here are some of this year’s trend plays:

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: As expected, Charles got the bulk of the work for the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, handling 19 touches (18 runs).  It wasn’t the best of games for the shifty back (59 yards, 1 TD, 1 fumble lost), but over the past three weeks, he’s logged 55 touches (18.3/game), amassed 535 total yards (272 rushing/receiving, 263 return) and scored four touchdowns.  In Week 14, Charles and the Chiefs are up against the WORST run defense in football in the Buffalo Bills.  Charles is a must start fantasy back, and a top-notch RB2.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos: Moreno is running in a timeshare with Correll Buckhalter, but is getting more touches (53 to 46 over the past three weeks), has rushed for 80-plus yards in each of the last four games and has scored three touchdowns in the last two.  Coming off back-to-back 21 touch games, Moreno is a solid flex play/low-end RB2, and can be counted on for at least 15-18 touches, 70-80 yards and a potential TD, despite facing an 18th ranked Indianapolis Colts’ run defense that has given up only eight rushing scores on the season. 

Steve Smith (NYG), Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Robert Meachem: While Roddy White was busy leading the league in targets in Week 13 (20) and Chad Ochocinco was having his best game in weeks (14 targets, 9 receptions, 137 yards, TD), and Larry Fitzgerald (12-8-143-1), Andre Johnson (17-7-99-1) and Calvin Johnson (11-6-123-1) were doing their thing, Smith, Crabtree, Garcon and Meachem were positioning themselves for an effective fantasy football playoff run – because we all know that’s their primary focus at this point in the season!  Despite dropping some big passes, Smith reeled in 6 balls for 110 yards on 13 targets.  Crabtree (12 targets) and Garcon (10 targets) also caught 6 balls, for 60 and 136 yards, respectively.  As for Meachem, well, let’s just say he had a helluva game (10-8-142-1).  He’s scored in five straight, and has eight touchdowns on the year.  The trends point to each of these guys continuing to find success.  Meachem and Crabtree have the best Week 14 match-ups (Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, both near the bottom of the league against the pass), but don’t ignore Smith, who is getting most of the looks from Eli Manning, or Garcon, who leads the Indianapolis Colts in targets, catches and yards over the past three games.

Finally, two topics of note: As disappointing as most of his 2009 season has been, Jason Witten has been coming on of late (31 targets, 306 yards over the past three weeks).  If you have doubts about deploying him this week, think again.  You won’t find a better option on the waiver wire.  In Seattle, the return of Julius Jones (25 touches) meant a lesser workload for Justin Forsett (8 touches).  Sure, the Seahawks won on Sunday, but Jones accumulated just 64 yards (2.56 yards per touch), while Forsett reeled off 34 (4.25 yards per touch) and a score.  Is it just me, or are the Seahawks being stubborn in their deployment of Forsett?  It’s really too bad because Forsett could have been a great Week 14 play against the Houston Texans.

Let’s examine the Week 13 “Targets and Touches” grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

 
TARGETS REPORT
 

TOUCHES REPORT

ROOKIE ON THE RISE

Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos

Okay, so this one seems a bit obvious, and maybe it’s a few weeks past due, but Moreno hasn’t been spotlighted in “The Rise” before, and it’s evident he’s here to stay.  The 12th overall pick out of Georgia has come on strong over the last several weeks, as stated in the “Touches & Targets” section above, and is an extraordinarily good play coming into the fantasy football playoffs.  After the 18th ranked Indianapolis Colts’ run defense this week, he gets the 30th ranked Oakland Raiders in Week 15.  Once again, he’s a solid Week 14 flex option and low-end RB2.

Week 14 Projection: 17 touches, 72 yards, TD

Remainder of the Season Projection: 75 touches, 326 yards, 3 TD

MR. OVERLOOKED: SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

Rock Cartwright, RB, Washington Redskins

Cartwright is not a sexy play, but when it comes down to it, he’s facing an Oakland Raiders run defense that surrenders 158.7 yards per game and has given up 18 rushing scores.  Quinton Ganther looked better and ran harder on half the Week 13 touches against the New Orleans Saints, but going with the trend, Cartwright will continue to get the bulk of the work (54 touches over the past three weeks, 16 in Week 13).  He is scarcely owned, so he could be yours for the taking, if you’re looking for a decent Week 14 flex play.

Week 14 Projection: 18 touches, 64 yards, 1 TD

Week 14 Rankings:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  | DEF    (click to read)

Week 14 Start & Sit:  START ‘EM  |  SIT ‘EM    (click to read)

Week 14 Waiver Wire Advice:  PICK THEM UP  |  CUT THEM LOOSE    (click to read)

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