Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist Josh Fasulo, owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production.  The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

It’s crunch time in the fantasy football world, and for those fortunate enough to be setting their lineups this week, it’s all about finding a way to eek out one more win so there’s a reason to get up next Sunday morning. Okay, that may be going a bit overboard, but it begs the question, what is life once the fantasy football season is over? Here’s to trying to delay the inevitable for at least one more week!

I’d be remiss if I didn’t start this week’s column off by discussing Brandon Marshall’s record-breaking 21-catch performance against the Indianapolis Colts. Marshall’s plethora of Week 14 receptions came on 28 targets and amounted to 200 yards and two scores. Marshall had more targets than nine starting quarterbacks had pass attempts, including Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers and David Garrard. Marshall wasn’t the only elite receiver putting up monster numbers in Week 14, however.

In a decisive home victory for the Houston Texans, Andre Johnson reeled in 11 balls on 15 targets for 193 yards and two touchdowns. No other receiver in the league came near the production of Johnson and Marshall in Week 14, and it’s no surprise to see them leading the pack in production over the past three weeks (Marshall: 47 targets, 34 recs, 380 yards, 3 TD; Johnson: 41-23-359-3). Only two receivers are in the same ballpark over the last three weeks, and one of them is a tight end: Miles Austin (31-23-320-3) and Antonio Gates (21-19-329-3).

Going back to the Colts/Broncos game, the conundrum that is Reggie Wayne continues. Once again, Pierre Garcon (9) was targeted more frequently than Wayne (7), and though Wayne had four catches to Garcon’s two, their yardage was nearly identical (Garcon 39, Wayne 43). Wayne’s totaled just 110 yards and one TD over the past three weeks. That said, the Colts have a great Week 15 match-up against the Jacksonville Jaguars, so if you have Wayne, you’d best deploy him!

By this point in the season, there’s no need to delve into further discussions about the obvious. We all know Chris Johnson (31 touches, 186 yards, 3 TD in Week 14) is a must start every week, regardless of the match-up, and we all know you never bench the likes of Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. However, a few not so obvious names are plowing their way into the discussion, and these are the guys who may have put you over the top in Week 14 and could keep you rolling in Week 15. 

In Week 14, Kansas City Chiefs’ starting tailback Jamaal Charles was fourth in the league in touches (27), and sprinted to 181 yards and a score, good for 24 fantasy points in leagues that don’t give bonuses. Quinton Ganther was handed the starting role for the Washington Redskins, and didn’t disappoint fantasy owners who were willing to plug him into their flex position. Ganther’s 17 touches were good for 93 yards and two touchdowns (21 fantasy points). Charles faces the lowly Cleveland Browns in Week 15, while Ganther will battle the struggling New York Giants. Charles is a must-start, quickly earning his way to fantasy football RB1 status, while Ganther is a good flex play.

Two other running backs who made a splash in Week 14 and could have an impact in the Week to come are Cleveland’s Chris Jennings (20 touches, 73 yards, TD) and Houston’s Arian Foster (17 touches, 88 yards). The Cleveland/Kansas City match-up will be a battle of the running backs, and after Jamaal Charles slashes through the Browns’ front seven, Jennings will get his turn to trample over the Chiefs’ equally poor rush defense. That said, there is, potentially, no more intriguing and unknown commodity in Week 15 than Houston’s Foster. Chris Brown was nearly non-existent in Week 14, and Ryan Moats fumbled again, which means, with Steve Slaton on IR, the door may have just blown wide open for the undrafted rookie to showcase his talent in a Week 15 cakewalk against the St. Louis Rams. Monitor the situation, but with Foster given the nod, he’s a great flex play (and should be considered the Quinton Ganther of Week 15).

A few final notes before you check out this week’s Targets & Touches grids:

Vincent Jackson finally came back to life (11 targets, 7 catches, 120 yards). The Bears sat one Devin but found another, as Devin Aromashodu filled in for the injured Hester and didn’t miss a beat (12 targets, 8 catches, 76 yards, TD). Correll Buckhalter was on crutches at the end of the Broncos/Colts game, and Tim Hightower was shunned by the other kids on the playground Monday night; he got only four touches. This means Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells both just got big value boosts for Week 15 against two of the poorer run defenses in the league, the Oakland Raiders and Detroit Lions.

Let’s examine the Week 14 “Targets and Touches” grids:  (*=2 games)

TARGETS REPORT

	Player	Wk 14 Targets	Wk 14 Recs	Wk 14 Yards	Wk 14 TD	3-Wk Targets	3-Wk Recs	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	Brandon Marshall	28	21	200	2	47	34	380	3
2	Andre Johnson	15	11	193	2	41	23	359	3
3	Wes Welker	14	10	105	0	36	26	304	0
4	Devin Aromashodu	12	8	76	1	15	9	82	1
-	Calvin Johnson	12	4	37	0	35	12	170	2
6	Brandon Gibson	11	6	43	0	23	12	99	0
-	Santonio Holmes	11	6	93	0	30	20	316	2
-	Vincent Jackson	11	7	120	0	20	11	201	0
9	Michael Crabtree	10	5	67	1	30	15	181	1
-	Steve Smith (NYG)	10	7	74	0	34	20	255	0
11	Chris Chambers	9	4	50	0	23	13	131	1
-	Dallas Clark	9	5	43	3	25	17	131	4
-	Pierre Garcon	9	2	39	0	26	13	238	1
-	Sidney Rice	9	4	39	1	35	17	200	1
-	Kellen Winslow	9	4	26	0	23	15	176	0
16	Joseph Addai	8	5	49	0	15	11	79	0
-	Miles Austin	8	6	71	1	31	23	320	3
-	Kevin Boss	8	7	70	1	13	10	102	1
-	Mark Bradley	8	3	35	0	*10	3	35	0
-	Brent Celek	8	5	64	1	21	11	113	2
-	Jamaal Charles	8	7	38	0	14	11	95	0
-	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	8	4	52	0	21	11	103	0
-	Santana Moss	8	4	58	0	27	13	154	1
-	Chad Ochocinco	8	3	27	1	27	15	202	2
-	Hines Ward	8	4	21	0	21	13	145	1
-	Roy Williams	8	4	74	0	22	12	149	3
27	Danny Amendola	7	5	19	0	21	13	74	0
-	Anquan Boldin	7	5	40	0	25	17	191	2
-	Deion Branch	7	5	33	0	15	9	59	1
-	Andre Caldwell	7	4	25	0	11	7	58	0
-	Greg Camarillo	7	7	110	0	19	11	171	0
-	Brian Clark	7	3	20	0	*8	3	20	0
-	Marques Colston	7	6	54	1	19	12	221	3
-	Vernon Davis	7	3	34	1	25	15	214	3
-	Jermichael Finley	7	5	70	0	21	15	174	2
-	Malcom Floyd	7	3	40	0	15	9	155	0
-	Tony Gonzalez	7	6	50	0	32	23	205	0
-	DeSean Jackson	7	6	178	1	*9	8	219	2
-	Johnny Knox	7	5	83	1	13	9	122	2
-	Heath Miller	7	5	59	0	14	7	88	0
-	Muhsin Muhammad	7	3	29	0	18	8	74	0
-	Hakeem Nicks	7	4	110	1	16	10	213	2
-	Ray Rice	7	4	53	0	18	12	137	0
-	Pierre Thomas	7	6	53	0	18	17	140	1
-	Reggie Wayne	7	4	43	0	20	11	110	1
-	Jason Witten	7	4	49	0	31	23	312	0
47	Donnie Avery	6	2	14	0	25	9	92	1
-	Bernard Berrian	6	4	43	0	22	15	153	0
-	Steve Breaston	6	1	15	0	14	6	49	0
-	Antonio Bryant	6	2	22	0	21	10	229	1
-	Reggie Bush	6	6	46	2	*12	10	74	2
-	Deon Butler	6	3	34	0	8	4	66	0
-	Austin Collie	6	3	39	1	18	11	127	2
-	Kenneth Darby	6	5	7	0	12	11	51	0
-	Joel Dreesen	6	3	22	0	9	5	44	0
-	Derrick Mason	6	5	94	1	24	14	169	2
-	Evan Moore	6	2	34	0	*17	8	114	0
-	Dante Rosario	6	3	26	0	16	9	99	0
-	Bo Scaife	6	4	43	0	21	14	167	1
-	Jeremy Shockey	6	4	46	0	13	9	108	0
-	Mike Sims-Walker	6	1	6	0	23	6	64	0
-	Steve Smith (Car)	6	2	83	1	18	7	163	1
-	Bobby Wade	6	4	34	0	23	10	90	0
-	Roddy White	6	2	41	0	39	16	202	2

 

TOUCHES REPORT

	Player	Wk 14 Touches	Wk 14 Rush-Rec	Wk 14 Yards	Wk 14 TD	3-Wk Touches	3-Wk Rush-Rec	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	Chris Johnson	31	28-3	186	3	85	73-12	513	4
2	Ricky Williams	30	28-2	115	1	77	73-4	290	1
3	Adrian Peterson	29	26-3	137	2	75	64-11	305	3
4	Jamaal Charles	27	20-7	181	1	63	52-11	387	3
-	Frank Gore	27	25-2	177	1	64	50-14	286	2
6	Knowshon Moreno	26	23-3	76	0	68	63-5	269	3
7	Thomas Jones	25	24-1	97	2	76	72-4	292	3
8	Laurence Maroney	24	22-2	111	0	56	50-6	247	2
9	Fred Jackson	23	20-3	122	0	59	48-11	293	2
-	Kevin Smith	23	21-2	88	0	63	55-8	281	1
11	Ryan Grant	22	20-2	144	2	63	58-5	288	2
-	LaDainian Tomlinson	22	21-1	59	1	57	54-3	188	4
13	Joseph Addai	21	16-5	116	0	63	52-11	294	2
-	Steven Jackson	21	19-2	53	0	81	70-11	290	1
15	Chris Jennings	20	20-0	73	1	29	27-2	112	1
-	Maurice Jones-Drew	20	18-2	83	1	65	57-8	275	1
17	Pierre Thomas	19	13-6	100	0	47	30-17	269	1
18	Ahmad Bradshaw	18	14-4	101	1	*25	21-4	148	1
19	Cedric Benson	17	16-1	100	0	*55	52-3	225	0
-	Arian Foster	17	13-4	88	0	*17	13-4	88	0
-	Quinton Ganther	17	14-3	93	2	31	27-4	167	2
-	Rashard Mendenhall	17	16-1	70	0	63	60-3	290	1
-	Ray Rice	17	13-4	219	1	58	46-12	445	1
24	Marion Barber	16	14-2	69	0	50	43-7	214	0
-	Matt Forte	16	12-4	68	0	53	44-9	225	1
-	Brandon Jacobs	16	15-1	69	1	44	39-5	239	3
-	Beanie Wells	16	15-1	103	1	38	36-2	172	1
28	Marshawn Lynch	15	12-3	94	0	26	21-5	173	1
-	DeAngelo Williams	15	13-2	97	0	*35	29-6	147	0
30	LeSean McCoy	14	10-4	54	0	44	33-11	181	0
-	Jason Snelling	14	10-4	102	1	30	24-6	162	1
32	Kevin Faulk	13	10-3	75	1	23	16-7	141	2
-	Justin Forsett	13	9-4	73	0	43	36-7	237	3
-	Willis McGahee	13	12-1	78	2	23	21-2	93	4
35	Reggie Bush	12	6-6	79	2	*17	7-10	107	2
36	Felix Jones	11	10-1	53	0	29	23-6	141	1
-	Julius Jones	11	10-1	43	0	*36	30-6	107	0
-	Darren McFadden	11	8-3	105	0	30	23-7	196	0
-	Ryan Moats	11	10-1	46	1	26	22-4	111	1
-	Cadillac Williams	11	11-0	14	0	41	38-3	158	1
41	Justin Fargas	10	9-1	27	1	40	36-4	170	1
-	Leonard Weaver	10	9-1	41	1	24	20-4	189	2
43	Jerome Harrison	9	7-2	19	0	31	19-12	124	2
-	Mike Hart	9	9-0	28	0	*15	13-2	66	0
-	Jerious Norwood	9	9-0	33	0	30	26-4	125	1
46	Darren Sproles	8	7-1	25	0	33	23-10	191	1
47	Glen Coffee	7	6-1	23	0	7	6-1	23	0
-	Marcus Mason	7	6-1	41	0	15	12-3	72	0
-	Jonathan Stewart	7	7-0	29	0	43	42-1	190	1
-	Chester Taylor	7	5-2	57	0	26	14-12	190	1

 

ROOKIE ON THE RISE

Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans

Foster was discussed in the “Targets & Touches” segment above, but he deserves a second mention here for the simple fact that his Week 15 value could be enormous. In Week 14, the 6’1”, 216 lb., undrafted rookie out of Tennessee carried the rock 13 times for just 34 yards, but added 4 receptions for 54 yards. The stat that bodes best for Foster (and his prospective owners) is his zero fumbles. That stat alone could lead to 20-plus touches in Week 15 against the St. Louis Rams. If he’s available in your league and you need RB or flex help, pick him up and monitor his player news throughout the week.

Week 15 Projection: 20 touches, 96 yards, 1 TD (if he gets the starting nod)

Remainder of the Season Projection: 51 touches, 229 yards, 2 TD

MR. OVERLOOKED: SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

Chris Jennings, RB, Cleveland Browns

Jennings could easily have been the spotlighted “Rookie on the Rise” but his status as a sleeper is too great to pass up. Owned in less than 10 percent of major fantasy leagues, Jennings has huge upside in Week 15 against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that surrenders 148 ypg to opposing runners and has given up an average of 1 TD per game on the ground. After his 20-touch (all rushes), 73-yard, 1 TD performance against the stout Pittsburgh Steelers (1st in the league against the run), it would be a shock if Jennings didn’t push the 100-yard barrier in Week 15 and score.  He’s a solid RB2 option, and a great flex play.  Play him with confidence!

Week 15 Projection: 22 touches, 104 yards, 1 TD

Week 15 Rankings:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  | DEF    (click to read)

Week 15 Start & Sit:  START ‘EM  |  SIT ‘EM    (click to read)

Week 15 Waiver Wire Advice:  PICK THEM UP  |  CUT THEM LOOSE    (click to read)

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