Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

“Fasulo’s Forecaster” (the work of guest columnist,Josh Fasulo, the owner of Fantasy Sports Shack) evaluates how the week gone by can help project future fantasy production. The “Targets & Touches” portion of the article examines the trends behind the numbers, with an emphasis on two of the most telling stats no one talks about: Targets (how often a receiver is thrown to) and Touches (how many times a running back gets the ball – rushes and receptions).  In “Rookie on the Rise”, Josh will highlight one first-year-player who is stepping it up. Last but not least, the “Mr. Overlooked: Sleeper of the Week” section forecasts one potentially available player in your league who could help your team win in the coming week.

TARGETS & TOUCHES

In Week 5, Miles Austin was the talk of the league, hauling in 10 balls on 15 targets for an astounding 250 yards and 2 scores.  The question became, was it a fluke?  Well, in Week 7, after the Cowboys’ bye, Austin proved he is for real: 6 receptions on 8 targets for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns.  That’s 23 targets, 16 catches, 421 yards and 4 TDs in 2 games! Austin, though, isn’t the only receiver starting to prove his fantasy worth.

In Week 7, Sidney Rice led the NFL in targets (14) and receptions (11), and it amounted to 136 yards.  Over the past 3 games, Rice has become Brett Favre’s favorite go-to guy (26 targets, 20 catches, 373 yards).  In Chicago, Devin Hester is becoming the clear-cut number one receiver.  In the 2 weeks since the Bears’ bye, Hester has been targeted a team-high 19 times, and has hauled in 14 passes for 184 yards and a score.  There may also be a clear-cut number one in San Francisco, but he doesn’t always line up on the flank.  With Alex Smith taking over in the second half against Houston, Vernon Davis ended up with 7 catches on 11 targets for 93 yards and 3 scores.  Davis has been targeted 23 times in the 49ers’ last 2 games, and he seemingly has a rapport with the 49ers’ new (and former) starting QB.  Hakeem Nicks – spotlighted in last week’s “Rookie on the Rise” – is becoming a consistent target for Eli Manning and the Giants.  He scored again in Week 7 (on a fluky play), was targeted 7 times and had 4 receptions.  That gives him 21 targets, 13 catches, 243 yards and 3 TDs over the last 3.  Of the previous four players mentioned, note that Hester is the only one with a favorable Week 8 match-up (home versus Cleveland). 

While some guys are playing their way onto fantasy starting rosters, a few big names didn’t make the top 50 targets on Sunday (and cost some of us a W).  Hines Ward, the league’s top wideout, had but 1 catch for 3 yards.  Dwayne Bowe, coming off a 14 target Week 6, was targeted just 5 times and had only 2 catches for 11 yards.  Thankfully, one of those went for 6.  Roy E. Williams, clearly no longer the top dog in Dallas – was he ever? – was thrown to only 5 times, and had just 1 reception for 16 yards.  Blah.  And it’s worth mentioning, no running back was targeted more than 6 times in Week 7.  Thus, despite his bye, Ray Rice still leads all RBs in targets over the last three weeks (19).

Injuries and idiocy from Week 7 may have impacted the fantasy football world as much as the stats and trends. Larry Johnson’s flagrant Tweet about his coach – and his downright horrific play (3.3 yards/touch) – may have cost him his job, and Jamaal Charles may finally get his shot after the Chiefs’ Week 8 bye.  The explosive Charles has only 18 touches over the past 3 games, but they’ve been good for 105 yards (5.8 yards/touch). Chris Cooley and Leon Washington both left their teams’ Week 7 games, and both are done for the year.  Fred Davis (10 targets, 8 reception, 78 yards, 1 TD) and Shonn Greene (19 touches, 144 yards, 2 TD) were and are the beneficiaries.  Week 8 may not be the week to deploy these guys – Davis and the Redskins have a bye, and Greene and the Jets face a stout Miami rush D (4th in the league, though they’ve allowed 7 rushing scores) – but both are worthy pick-ups for the fantasy playoff push.

Speaking of worthy pickups, if you “settled” for Cedric Benson in the middle-rounds of your fantasy draft, there’s a good chance you’re near the top of your league’s standings.  Benson had 37 touches, 189 yards and a TD in Week 7, and leads the league in touches over the past three weeks (84) and the season (174).  Benson’s past three weeks have amounted to 370 yards and 3 TDs, which is the same production DeAngelo Williams has had in that span on 11 fewer touches.  Steven Jackson also has 370 yards over his past three games, but hasn’t scored.

Finally, before you check out Week 7’s Targets & Touches grids, a word to those of you looking for receiver help in Week 8: Jacksonville and Tennessee, both coming off byes, match up this week in a showcase of the league’s two worst pass defenses.  Mike Sims-Walker is the top play here, but Torry Holt, Justin Gage, Nate Washington, Kenny Britt and even Mike Thomas are all worthy flex options.  Marcedes Lewis could be a decent bye-week fill-in at tight end as well.

Here are the Week 7 Targets and Touches grids:  (*=2 games, **=1 game)

TARGETS REPORT

	Player	Wk 7 Targets	Wk 7 Recs	Wk 7 Yards	Wk 7 TD	3-Wk Targets	3-Wk Recs	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	Sidney Rice	14	11	136	0	26	20	373	0
2	Larry Fitzgerald	13	6	83	0	34	24	262	3
3	Marques Colston	12	5	72	1	*20	13	238	2
4	Vernon Davis	11	7	93	3	*23	12	144	3
-	Chad Ochocinco	11	10	118	2	28	22	315	2
-	Steve Smith (Car)	11	6	99	0	22	12	168	0
-	Roddy White	11	6	50	1	27	18	316	4
8	Fred Davis	10	8	78	1	14	12	113	1
-	Percy Harvin	10	3	42	0	19	9	118	0
-	Louis Murphy	10	4	58	0	16	5	60	0
-	Steve Smith (NYG)	10	4	69	0	20	11	183	0
-	Wes Welker	10	10	107	1	36	28	343	4
13	Antonio Bryant	9	2	51	1	23	9	150	1
-	Owen Daniels	9	7	123	1	28	22	295	3
-	Lee Evans	9	5	75	1	25	11	154	2
-	Devin Hester	9	8	101	1	*19	14	184	1
-	Vincent Jackson	9	5	142	1	*16	9	188	2
-	Santana Moss	9	6	74	0	19	11	160	0
-	Reggie Wayne	9	7	83	1	*17	13	143	2
20	Miles Austin	8	6	171	2	*23	16	421	4
-	Pierre Garcon	8	3	24	0	*12	4	33	0
-	Ted Ginn Jr.	8	2	16	0	*10	4	73	1
-	Greg Jennings	8	5	52	0	*16	11	116	0
-	Mario Manningham	8	4	47	0	20	10	133	2
-	M. Massaquoi	8	1	22	0	24	7	121	0
-	Randy Moss	8	5	69	0	22	14	234	3
-	Antwaan Randle El	8	5	39	0	15	10	90	0
-	S. Stroughter	8	3	63	0	19	9	146	0
-	Bobby Wade	8	4	66	0	19	10	133	0
30	Anquan Boldin	7	3	75	0	26	16	210	0
-	Tony Gonzalez	7	4	37	0	26	14	144	1
-	Santonio Holmes	7	2	59	0	21	11	213	0
-	Jeremy Maclin	7	5	53	0	21	12	201	2
-	Hakeem Nicks	7	4	80	1	21	13	243	3
-	Terrell Owens	7	3	27	0	22	10	84	0
-	Jason Witten	7	5	53	0	*13	10	100	0
37	Gary Barnidge	6	3	77	0	6	3	77	0
-	Earl Bennett	6	4	48	0	*11	8	105	0
-	Davone Bess	6	3	13	0	*9	6	31	0
-	Isaac Bruce	6	2	23	0	*10	2	23	0
-	Reggie Bush	6	3	16	0	*9	4	23	0
-	Greg Camarillo	6	5	55	0	*9	8	88	0
-	Austin Collie	6	4	36	1	*15	12	133	3
-	Michael Crabtree	6	5	56	0	**6	5	56	0
-	Matt Forte	6	4	25	0	*11	9	62	0
-	Antonio Gates	6	5	55	0	*15	10	125	0
-	Devery Henderson	6	4	71	0	*9	5	77	0
-	Johnny Knox	6	4	42	0	*13	7	76	1
-	LeSean McCoy	6	5	30	0	11	7	45	0
-	Heath Miller	6	6	38	0	19	16	172	2
-	Visanthe Shiancoe	6	4	27	0	14	12	124	3
-	Steve Slaton	6	4	22	1	18	16	183	2
-	DeAngelo Williams	6	5	50	0	10	9	89	0

 

TOUCHES REPORT

	Player	Wk 7 Touches	Wk 7 Rush-Rec	Wk 7 Yards	Wk 7 TD	3-Wk Touches	3-Wk Rush-Rec	3-Wk Yards	3-Wk TD
1	Cedric Benson	37	37-0	189	1	84	80-4	370	3
2	Ryan Grant	28	27-1	151	1	*55	51-4	258	1
3	Thomas Jones	27	26-1	124	1	64	61-3	393	4
4	LaDainian Tomlinson	25	23-2	73	0	*46	41-5	173	0
5	Steven Jackson	24	23-1	133	0	69	60-9	370	0
6	Steve Slaton	22	18-4	89	2	66	50-16	332	3
-	Adrian Peterson	22	18-4	129	1	65	55-10	370	3
8	DeAngelo Williams	21	16-5	139	1	73	64-9	370	3
-	Joseph Addai	21	20-1	67	1	*45	34-11	147	2
10	LeSean McCoy	19	14-5	67	0	32	25-7	109	9
-	Shonn Greene	19	19-0	144	2	23	23-0	152	2
12	Marshawn Lynch	18	17-1	47	1	62	53-9	244	1
-	Michael Turner	18	18-0	50	1	55	53-2	193	5
14	Beanie Wells	17	14-3	77	1	37	33-4	137	1
-	Larry Johnson	17	16-1	56	0	65	60-5	197	0
16	Ronnie Brown	16	16-0	48	1	*40	37-3	136	3
17	Jamal Lewis	15	15-0	47	0	59	57-2	200	0
-	Frank Gore	15	13-2	47	0	**15	13-2	47	0
-	Brandon Jacobs	15	13-2	87	1	45	41-4	197	1
-	Marion Barber	15	14-1	48	0	*30	29-1	101	0
21	Clinton Portis	14	14-0	43	0	53	48-5	241	2
-	Derrick Ward	14	13-1	56	0	22	20-2	100	0
23	Cadillac Williams	13	11-2	57	0	42	37-5	150	1
-	Laurence Maroney	13	13-0	43	1	37	34-3	197	2
-	Ahmad Bradshaw	13	12-1	27	0	35	33-2	240	3
26	Mike Bell	12	12-0	80	0	*27	27-0	114	1
27	Rashard Mendenhall	11	10-1	68	0	47	42-5	238	2
-	Justin Fargas	11	8-3	90	0	47	42-5	215	0
-	Jonathan Stewart	11	7-4	45	0	39	34-5	200	2
-	Ricky Williams	11	9-2	92	3	25	20-5	230	3
31	Matt Forte	10	6-4	49	0	*30	21-9	109	0
-	Felix Jones	10	8-2	43	0	**10	8-2	43	0
33	Pierre Thomas	9	8-1	44	0	*24	23-1	116	0
-	Brandon Jackson	9	9-0	31	0	*12	11-1	49	0
-	Michael Bush	9	8-1	31	0	29	26-3	98	1
36	Jason Snelling	8	7-1	78	0	18	12-6	129	0
-	Darren Sproles	8	5-3	99	1	*10	6-4	103	2
38	Bernard Scott	7	6-1	31	0	8	7-1	34	0
-	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	7	7-0	6	0	16	14-2	84	0
-	Jerome Harrison	7	3-4	30	0	20	16-4	77	0
41	Tim Hightower	6	4-2	20	1	34	23-11	125	3
-	Reggie Bush	6	3-3	26	1	*13	9-4	50	2
43	Jamaal Charles	5	4-1	34	0	18	11-7	105	0
-	Chris Brown	5	4-1	18	0	19	17-2	74	1
-	Fred Jackson	5	5-0	2	0	35	33-2	101	0
-	Dantrell Savage	5	5-0	15	0	5	5-0	15	0
47	Kevin Faulk	4	2-2	24	0	15	7-8	117	1
-	Samkon Gado	4	4-0	5	0	9	8-1	31	0
-	Mewelde Moore	4	4-0	14	0	14	11-3	62	0
-	Chad Simpson	4	3-1	37	1	*7	6-1	46	1
-	Chester Taylor	4	3-1	21	0	24	20-4	112	1

ROOKIE ON THE RISE

Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets

Greene, the Jets’ first selection (3rd round) in the 2009 draft, is a punishing back out of Iowa whose style is very similar to the incumbent Thomas Jones.  With the season-ending injury to Leon Washington, Greene is getting thrust into the picture, and in Week 7, it paid off for the Jets to the tune of 144 yards and 2 TD.  Whereas most running back tandems in football feature some version of “Thunder and Lightning”, it appears the Jets will be deploying a “Thunder/Thunder” approach from Week 8 forward.  With Thomas Jones playing well (64 touches, 393 yards, 4 TDs over the last three games), don’t expect Greene to supplant him – yet.  Do expect Greene to get a decent number of touches, especially as long as Mark Sanchez’s play continues to be erratic.

Week 8 Projection: 13 touches, 47 yards

Remainder of the Season Projection: 127 touches, 596 yards, 5 TDs

MR. OVERLOOKED: SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals

We’ve all been waiting for the Cards’ top pick to breakout, and finally, in Week 7 against the Giants, he did (17 touches, 77 yards, 1 TD).  Okay, so maybe he isn’t “overlooked” as much as he is cast aside, but as of Tuesday, he’s owned in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues and only 37 percent of Yahoo public leagues.  Tim Hightower had just 6 touches in the Week 7 game, and it appears Wells is starting to make an impression.  He goes up against Carolina and the 26th ranked rush defense in Week 8, and since the Panthers are the NFL’s best versus the pass, the Cards could deploy the run a bit more.  And let me just mention, Beanie’s week 14-16 schedule is very favorable (@SF, @ Det, StL).

Week 8 Projection: 16 touches, 72 yards, 1 TD

Week 8 Rankings:  QB  |  RB  |  WR  |  TE  |  K  | DEF    (click to read)

Week 8 Start & Sit:  START ‘EM  | SIT ‘EM    (click to read)

Week 8 Waiver Wire Advice:  PICK THEM UP  |  CUT THEM LOOSE      (click to read)

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