Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

This week’s column is going to be a bit different than usual. For years, I’ve complained that a major problem with the fantasy football community is that we tell you who to get or who we like rather than teach you how to identify possible breakout players and come up with your own opinions and conclusions on players. In other words, we do a very poor job of putting you in control of your fantasy team. At the end of each season, I get two types of appreciative email. The first type are those owners who won their league with player advice I gave them. They send me their roster or a group of players to choose from and I tell them who I think they should start each week. The second type are those owners who won their league after I showed them how to set their lineups and identify a player who might break out and be a good acquisition either by trade or waiver wire. Owners of this type don’t ask for my opinion on players. They just need to know if they’re thinking on the right path. Owners in this group have reached second level thinking. Believe me, you want to get into that second group. Not only does it give you a huge edge over your competition, it is always far more satisfying when a player you identified breaks out and helps carry your team to a fantasy football championship. So, with this week’s column, we’re going to go over some things you can do to play chess while the rest of your league is playing checkers.

I’ve spoken a lot in recent weeks about the need to relax, fight the urge to panic, and always maintain perspective. The only owners who should be in panic mode right now are those who have started 0-4. If your team is sitting at 2-2 or even 1-3, you’re still in the thick of things and you have nothing to worry about. That being said, this is no time to rest on your laurels. With four games played, we’ve now reached what I consider to be a crucial point in the fantasy and NFL season. We are now a quarter of the way through the NFL regular season (16 games) and a third of the way through the fantasy football regular season (typically 13 games). It is now time to give your team an honest evaluation. Identify your strengths and weaknesses. Analyze your players so far this season. Have they been hampered by an injury? Is the explanation for poor play obvious and valid? Have they faced tough defenses? Can you fix a weakness through the waiver wire or are things bad enough that you need to sacrifice some strength to shore up that weakness via trade? When acquiring players, there is so much more to consider than just how many fantasy points they’ve scored so far this season. As a matter of fact, I would go on a limb and say that total fantasy football points scored is one of the last things you should consider when acquiring players.

With that being said let’s take a look at some rules to keep in mind while evaluating your players.

1. In fantasy football, touchdowns rule

Yards are great, but TDs are where the fantasy points are. Touchdowns are the reason why Willis McGahee is currently the 5th highest scoring RB so far this season in standard ESPN leagues despite rushing for only 201 yards so far this season. Brandon Jacobs and Michael Turner have both rushed for more yards than McGahee, but barely find themselves in the top 30 RBs so far this season because they’re not finding paydirt like McGahee is. The only problem is that no one can predict how many TDs a player will pass, rush, or receive in a given game. Anyone that tells you they can is a liar. So how do we identify players who may start scoring more TDs? In due time, young padawan…

2.  To fix roster weaknesses, look to the waiver wire before considering a trade

I probably lost some of you with this one, but that’s okay. The reason I recommend using the waiver wire instead of trading is that the possibility of your competition benefiting from your waiver wire transaction is very low. I’ve said this a thousand times, but in a competitive league, it’s rare that either team really gains in a trade. Teams are typically trading their strengths to improve their weaknesses while the team they’re trading with is doing the same. So does anyone really win? It sounds more like a re-balancing than a trade. I will concede, however, that the possibility does exist for one team to substantially benefit from a trade. Though this is uncommon, it is the reason I recommend looking to the waiver wire before considering a trade.

3. When acquiring players by waiver wire or by trade, be mindful of their schedule

This sounds really elementary, but I see fantasy football owners make mistakes with this every season. For example, let’s say you have Tom Brady but not much depth or talent behind him. It makes absolutely no sense to try and acquire Ben Roethlisberger or Carson Palmer, who share Brady’s Week 8 bye. But Matt, imagine the depth I’ll have with Brady and Big Ben or Brady and Carson. You don’t have depth. You have a useless and wasted overabundance of talent at one position. If you have Tom Brady, are you ever really going to consider benching him? Now, I know he’s had his struggles this season, but he’s Tom Brady. I despise the guy, but I respect his game. So you make the trade, Week 8 comes around, and you’re starting JaMarcus Russell. But look on the bright side, Palmer or Big Ben will look great on your bench all season behind Brady. By the same token, be mindful of who the player you’re thinking of acquiring is playing during weeks when you need a bye week fill in and also for the rest of the season. Schedules are everything in the NFL and it’s no different in fantasy football.

4. Your bench doesn’t need to be stacked, but it does need to be functional

Allow me another example. My wife is participating in her first fantasy league this season and was fortunate enough to draft Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Joe Flacco at QB. That’s not depth. That’s our aforementioned useless and wasted overabundance of talent at one position. And in the league she plays in, the other owners know it and will never give her fair value in a trade should she want to part with one to improve at RB or WR. So she’s basically stuck with a ton of talent at one position. In other words, her roster is stacked with talent, but it’s not very functional. A functional roster has bench players to not only step in during bye weeks, but to step in with favorable matchups. Bench players don’t have to dominate every week, they just need to dominate the weeks that you need to start them. And since I mentioned it, getting your wives/girlfriends into fantasy football will make your Sundays much easier and more enjoyable.

HOW TO EVALUATE PLAYERS

Earlier, I said that touchdowns rule in fantasy football. I also said that no one can predict how many TDs a player will throw, run for, or receive. That being said, there are statistics we can use to evaluate players, spot anomalies, and acquire players before they break out.

QUARTERBACKS

Passer Rating – It may not count for fantasy football, but a QB with a high passer rating but lower than expected fantasy points is a prime candidate to start posting some solid fantasy numbers. For example, in a standard ESPN league, Matt Ryan is the 15th overall QB based on average fantasy points per week. A look at his passer rating shows that he is 6th in the NFL at 100.4. What does this mean? It means it’s only a matter of time before Ryan’s fantasy points become representative of his passer rating. At the other end of the spectrum is Phillip Rivers. In a standard ESPN league, Rivers is the 3rd overall QB so far this season. His passer rating of 90.6, however, puts him 12th in the NFL. In other words, chances are good that Rivers is not playing as well as his fantasy numbers would lead you to believe. Again, you’re looking for anomalies or situations where one condition is high but the other is low.

Yards Per Completion – This stat is a great predictor of TD passes. QBs who are throwing for a ton of yards with each completion are going to have better odds of having those completions taken to the house. Don’t believe me? So far this season, here are the leaders in yards per completion:

  1. Peyton Manning, 9.8
  2. Aaron Rodgers, 8.6
  3. Ben Roethlisberger, 8.4

Those three QBs are currently ranked 1, 2, and 4 respectively in fantasy football points for QBs in a standard ESPN league. So yes, this is a stat you may want to pay attention to.

RUNNING BACKS

Yards Per Rush – As was the case with QBs, yards per rush is a great predictor of rushing TDs. RBs who are running for a ton of yards with each rushing attempt are going to have better odds of those carries finding paydirt. 4 yards per carry is solid. 4.5 yards per carry is excellent. Anything over 5 is incredible. Notables close to and over 5 include:

  1. Adrian Peterson, 4.9
  2. Chris Johnson, 6.3
  3. Ronnie Brown, 5.1
  4. Maurice Jones-Drew, 4.7

And wouldn’t you know it? Those four guys, in order, are the top 4 RBs in a standard ESPN fantasy football league so far this season. Definitely another metric you need to pay attention to.

WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS

Receiving Yards Per Game – Unlike QBs and RBs, yards per reception isn’t overly predictive of fantasy success. Receiving yards per game, however, is. The top three WRs in receiving yards per game:

  1. Steve Smith, 102.8
  2. Reggie Wayne, 99.8
  3. Vincent Jackson, 93.2

It is not a coincidence that those three WRs are the top three WRs in order in a standard ESPN fantasy football league so far this season. This stat actually illustrates that yards may be more important than TDs at the WR and TE positions.

I hope this column helps you evaluate your team and individual players more effectively and allows you to improve your fantasy football team in the process. I know this was a divergence from my normal column, but I hope you got a lot out of it. As always, if you have any fantasy football questions, feel free to email me at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). Best of luck to your fantasy teams this week!

Week 5 Rankings:  QB | RB | WR | TE | K | D  (click to read)

Week 5 Start & Sit: START ‘EM  |  SIT ‘EM  (click to read)

Week 5 Waiver Wire Advice:  PICK THEM UP  |  CUT THEM LOOSE  (click to read)

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