Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Welcome to my new weekly feature here at BrunoBoys.net! Week 1 is in the books and here is what we know for certain so far: Brian Urlacher is done for the year. That’s it! Nothing else is definitively known in the NFL. Any conclusions we make based on Week 1 are assumptions at best and it is dangerous for fantasy football owners to put much stock into what happened this past Sunday. Those of you who read last week’s article, 7 Habits of Highly Successful Fantasy Owners, know that three of those habits involve avoiding overreaction, conventional wisdom, and a results oriented approach. I have no doubt you’ve seen all three of those habits violated by other fantasy owners in your leagues and we have just 6% of the regular season behind us. What happened this past weekend is not unimportant, but it must be taken and analyzed in its proper perspective. That’s what this feature will attempt to accomplish each week. We’re going to break things (figuratively, not literally) into three groups: what impressed me (Bruce Dickinson), what annoyed me (Gene Frenkle), and what unmoved me (Eric Bloom). 

Bruce Dickinsons – Yes, THE Bruce Dickinson…

Joe Flacco – The sophomore was absolutely fabulous on Sunday, throwing for 307 yards and 3 TDs. Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron wants to establish an aerial attack and his mission was certainly accomplished this past weekend. So is this Flacco’s breakout game that will cement him as a fantasy force? That’s tough to say because we don’t know how good Kansas City is. Are the Chiefs an 8-8 team? Are they a 6-10 team? Are they a 4-12 team? We don’t know. What we do know is that Flacco has a good deal of physical ability and proved to be a capable QB and leader last season. We know quite a few QBs take a huge step forward in their second season as starter (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Jay Cutler). Flacco has an excellent OC in Cameron and has underrated weapons in Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, and Todd Heap. Despite the fact that he plays in the defensive oriented AFC North, I think we could see Flacco become a top 10 QB this season.

San Francisco Defense – Raise your hand if you expected the 49ers defense to go into Arizona and hold the high powered Cardinals offense to just 16 points. If your hand is up, allow me to serve up a helping of South Carolina Congressman Joe Wilson, “You lie!”. Yes, I know Mike Singletary is now the head coach in San Fran, but it’s not like he’s suiting up next to Patrick Willis. The Niners defense is improved, but don’t expect performances like this every week. Shaun Hill didn’t throw an interception (and he will) and Arizona committed 12 penalties for 82 yards. It was a great win for the 49ers, but I’m going to wait until the Seahawks leave Candlestick on Sunday before I pass judgment on this unit.

Green Bay Defense – Oh, you knew this was coming! Suffice to say, Dom Capers could run for Mayor of Green Bay tomorrow and win. In subsequent reviewing of the game, it appears Capers has installed a nasty 3-4 defense remarkably similar to the dominating unit in Pittsburgh. Questions about the Packers personnel in running such a scheme were answered on Sunday night when Matt Forte was held to just 55 rushing yards (2.2 yards per carry) and Chicago’s newly acquired “franchise” quarterback (Jay Cutler) was pressured and harassed into throwing four interceptions. Amazingly, Capers never sent the same combination of players after Cutler on back to back downs. Aaron Kampman looked good in his first game at linebacker and AJ Hawk finally looked like a #5 overall draft pick. While reviewing this game, I have come to the conclusion that Hawk will not be the best linebacker drafted by Ted Thompson. Clay Matthews is going to be special. He played more snaps than the team intended and the reason is because he was playing incredibly well in his first regular season game. Can we expect this from the Packers D all season? In each of his stops as defensive coordinator, Capers has turned the defense into a top 10 unit in his first season. How reliable are stats like that? Going into Sunday night, defenses had allowed an average of 16 points in their first game in Capers’ scheme. The Bears scored 15 points on Sunday night. This is, at minimum, a top 10 defensive unit that could easily be top 5.

Chicago D – Those of you following Bruno Boys on Twitter may have read this Tweet on Sunday night: “I don’t think we’re seeing two bad offenses. I think we’re watching two solid defenses.” I have to give credit where credit is due. The Bears defense was tremendous in holding the explosive Green Bay offense to just 21 points on a night when the Packers had a +4 turnover advantage. There were, however, a few times when Aaron Rodgers just missed his receivers and some big plays in the process. All in all, the Chicago defense was stellar and the only reason that game was so close. What can we expect for the rest of the season? All bets are off since they lost Brian Urlacher for the season. An injury of that magnitude would completely decimate other defenses around the league. For the Bears, it simply downgrades them from great to average.

Cadillac Williams – Is there a better Week 1 story than Caddy coming back from two major knee surgeries and running rampant on the Cowboys? It may not have resulted in a Tampa Bay victory, but 97 yards rushing (7.5 yards per carry!) and a touchdown is certainly a step in the right direction. For all the talk about Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward this offseason, who would have thought the almost forgotten 2005 Offensive Rookie of the Year would be the running back to tear it up for the Bucs in Week 1? I realize that Tom Brady will win Comeback Player of the Year so long as he finishes all 16 games, but Cadillac is the better story. What can we expect for the rest of the season? Though the backfield in Tampa Bay is crowded to say the least, I think Cadillac has quite a bit of value this season. That being said, he’s definitely an injury risk and he’s never averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry in any of his four professional seasons. At best, he stays healthy, runs the way he’s capable, and becomes a top 15 running back. At worst, he will provide fantasy teams with depth and upside at the always important running back position.

Thomas Jones – I’m man enough to admit that I avoided Jones like the Swine Flu in my fantasy drafts this year. We heard about Leon Washington and Shonn Greene all offseason. We were told that, though he keeps himself in amazing shape, Jones was now 31 years old, coming off a career season, and entering the sunset of an admirable NFL career. And wouldn’t you know it, Week 1 rolls around and Jones runs roughshod over the Texans to the tune of 107 yards rushing (5.4 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. Remember what I said about listening to and following conventional wisdom? What can we expect for the rest of the year? Well, we know Rex Ryan wants to run the football and play stingy, aggressive defense. We know Leon Washington is a playmaker who will get carries (15 on Sunday). We know that Shonn Greene will be returning from injury and has all the makings of a punishing, goal line running back. Can I abstain from voting here? Wait a minute, it’s my column, of course I can. Yeah, I abstain.

Ray Rice – We heard all offseason that Rice was the Baltimore running back to get in fantasy leagues and he didn’t disappoint in Week 1. Rice rushed for 108 yards (5.7 yards per carry) in the Ravens victory on Sunday. The only problem? Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain scored the Baltimore rushing touchdowns. Make no mistake, the only problem is a major problem. Yardage is great and all, but touchdowns win fantasy championships. When I started playing fantasy football a decade ago, touchdown only leagues were common place. What can we expect from Rice the rest of the season? Though I still believe Rice has the most upside in the Baltimore backfield, I have a feeling this is going to be a week to week RBBC Tilt-A-Whirl that will have fantasy owners screaming and pulling their hair out. I’m not a huge fan of trading, but if you can sell high on Rice and get a running back with a brighter, definitive outlook, you may want to consider it.

New York Jets Defense – The Jets defense was quite impressive on Sunday holding Houston to just seven points. That doesn’t tell the whole story though. Matt Schaub threw for just 166 yards and no touchdowns. Steve Slaton (a first round pick in many fantasy leagues) rushed for a paltry 17 yards. Andre Johnson (the second receiver off the board in most fantasy leagues) caught just four passes for 35 yards. Clearly this was the dominating defensive performance you would expect from a team coached by Rex Ryan. So here’s the big question. How good are the Houston Texans? The fact that they were a trendy or sexy pick by NFL insiders or “experts” to make the playoffs means absolutely nothing. If anything, Houston has become an organization that specializes in underachieving. I like what I saw of the Jets defense, but I’m going to reserve judgment on this unit until I see how they handle Tom Brady and Company this weekend. You should too.

Oakland Defense – People say there’s no such thing as a moral victory in the NFL, but I disagree. Though they didn’t win on Monday night, the Raiders defense looked solid against what is expected to be a potent offense. Oakland had San Diego on the ropes but just couldn’t land the knockout punch. What did we learn from this game? I learned that Al Davis isn’t a complete moron. Richard Seymour can still be a force, but that being said, he still wasn’t worth what will almost surely be a top 10 overall draft pick. I also think the Oakland defense may be for real. If they can keep the San Diego offense relatively in check, they should be able to do the same to most of the offenses they will face this season.

John Carlson – Considered a sleeper by pretty much everyone (in that case, maybe an awaker rather than sleeper?), Carlson was stellar on Sunday catching six passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Though this performance came against the hapless Rams, I think we can expect great things from Carlson this season. Matt Hasselbeck has always been fond of his tight end (that sounds really bad) and Carlson may be the best one he’s played with (that sounds even worse).

Gene Frenkles – Exploring the studio space…

Hero worship of Mark Sanchez and Adrian Peterson – I realize the stats look amazing, but this is a clear case of conventional wisdom meeting a results oriented approach. Adrian Peterson was shut down by the Browns for three quarters. He had just 40 yards on his first 14 carries. Then, the fourth quarter came around and a tired Cleveland defense surrendered 140 yards on his final nine carries. Meet conventional wisdom: “Well Matt, that’s what great running backs do. They wear you down throughout the game and then explode.” Really? It doesn’t have anything to do with the fact that the Cleveland defense is below average to begin with and that the also below average Browns offense couldn’t muster a decent drive to keep the defense off the field for a respectable amount of time? No, I’m sure that had nothing to do with it. Purple Jesus is just that great, right? In the case of Sanchez, he too was playing against a below average defense and his touchdown pass came courtesy of a gift-wrapped blown assignment. But why bother with pesky facts? Let’s just anoint him the second most popular athlete in New York behind Derek Jeter and call him the second coming of Broadway Joe…

Drew Brees – Why in the name of Merlin’s beard are people surprised over the day Brees had on Sunday? He was playing the Lions, people! The same team that hasn’t won a football game since December 23, 2007. I heard they even lost their intra-squad scrimmage during training camp. You could have told me that Brees threw for 358 yards and six touchdowns in the first half and I wouldn’t have been surprised. Brees is like Sex Panther. 60% of time, he works every time. And yes, I know that Brees is on pace for 96 touchdown passes this season. I can multiply 16 x 6 too. Don’t get me wrong, Brees was great on Sunday, but Beyonce had one of the best videos of all time. Sorry, I couldn’t resist!

Michael Crabtree – This is just getting ridiculous. There was talk that Ted Thompson would consider Crabtree if he was available at #9 and BJ Raji was gone. Luckily for the Packers, Raji was available and the Niners were stuck with Crabtree and his drama. With the exception of Brett Favre, has there ever been more fanfare or discussion wasted on a guy who isn’t even on an NFL team? You know things are bad when something makes Al Davis look good. I really hope Crabtree re-enters the draft next year. Right now, there are at least three receivers I would draft ahead of Crabtree in 2010: Dez Bryant, Arrelious Benn, and Damian Williams. Crabtree is going to learn a lesson and its going to be a very expensive one.

Eric Blooms – Are you sure that was sounding okay?

Jay Cutler – This past weekend may have been the worst ever for Chicago fans. It started on Friday night when the greatest basketball player of all time embarrassed himself with his petty and pathetic Hall of Fame induction speech. It ended on Sunday night when Cutler, their latest savior, threw four interceptions in a huge game against arch rival Green Bay on national television. Cutler isn’t going to be a fantasy force anytime soon. I think he’ll even struggle be in the top 15. He’s not going to have the benefit of playing four games against the Raiders and Chiefs every year and his receivers leave quite a bit to be desired. Here’s what I can’t figure out. Cutler didn’t win at Vanderbilt. He didn’t win in Denver. Why was he suddenly going to become a winning quarterback in Chicago? We’re talking about a quarterback who has never had a season passer rating over 89 and a quarterback who, with two or three more games like Sunday night, will have as many career touchdown passes as interceptions. His record as a starting NFL quarterback now sits at a sterling 17-21. The guy isn’t a leader on the field, he’s even less of one off the field, and is often compared to Brett Favre when he should be compared to Jeff George. I’m not trying to pile on. I’m trying to figure out what I’m missing here. The guy doesn’t have an established NFL receiver to throw to and he’s the best quarterback in the NFC North? Right…

Jake Delhomme – Though Kanye West, Serena Williams, and Michael Jordan gave him quite a run, no one had a worse weekend than Delhomme. He is now officially on the shortest leash in the NFL and is probably an afterthought from a fantasy football perspective. Why the Panthers gave him that extension is beyond me.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense – I was expecting huge things from this group this season. The talent is most certainly there, but something is missing and I can’t put my finger on it. Scoring only seven points against a mediocre Denver defense is unacceptable and, miracle deflection or not, the Bengals didn’t deserve to win that game. That kind of talent can’t struggle forever, right?

Brett Favre – If Brad Childress needed a quarterback to throw for 110 yards, Sage Rosenfels could have done it in a much less dramatic and more cost effective manner. The Vikings obviously need to feed Adrian Peterson the ball as much as possible. I’m having difficulty understanding where the need for Favre came from. If you’re going to give AP his 25-30 carries per game, all you need at quarterback is a game manager who can convert the occasional third and long. So to address that, you go out and pay 12 million dollars to get the worst game managing quarterback in recent memory? What was that? He turns 40 years old next month and has an injured throwing arm? Well yeah, that makes perfect sense…

Jeremy Shockey – This guy has burned me so many times its not even right. I stood by him, defended him even. This season, I avoided him like Michael Jordan avoids humility. So what happens? He goes out and catches almost as many touchdowns as he has the past two seasons combined. The guy has always had the ability, he just had problems putting it all together. In this offense, with that quarterback, he could be downright dangerous this season. Let’s keep in mind, however, that he was playing the Lions and there are quite a few options in that offense.

LaDainian Tomlinson – It kills me to say this, but LaDainian Tomlinson may be in denial. He’s definitely my favorite running back over the last 10 years, but he just doesn’t look like the guy he used to be. Darren Sproles has absolutely nothing to do with it either. I know the only thing people were talking about on Monday night was LT injured on the sideline during the game winning drive, but they didn’t mention he averaged 4.2 yards per carry with a touchdown. Sproles only averaged 2.6. All bets are off with this injury though. He’s either going to miss a few games because of it or play through it and not be at 100%. Either way, it’s depressing to see a guy who used to break ankles with his moves having to worry about his own ankles.

Steve Slaton, Frank Gore, Kevin Smith – Let’s see, 1.9, 1.4, and 1.3 yards per carry respectively. On the bright side, those numbers have no place to go but up. I’m still high on Gore and Smith. While Slaton is big in the passing game, I think he’s going to lose a lot of touchdowns to Chris Brown. Touchdowns win fantasy championships. Where have I heard that before?

Greg Olsen, Jermichael Finley – The two trendy tight ends this preseason started the season quite poorly. Both had only one catch and less than 10 yards. You can expect that to change. That was a defensive showcase on Sunday night and both guys were game-planned to be kept in check. Finley should be back on track this week, though Olsen has a tough matchup with Pittsburgh coming to town.

That’s it for the Week 1 edition of Kamke’s Kowbell. If you’re going to take one thing from this week’s column, remember that we’ve only finished one week of the regular season. Don’t overreact and try to maintain perspective and see the big picture. We don’t know much right now, but the picture will become clearer as the season progresses and I’ll be here each week to break it down for you. As always, if you have any fantasy football questions, feel free to email me at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). Best of luck to your fantasy teams this week! 

Week 2 Rankings:  QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DEF  (click to read)

Week 1 Start & Sit:  Start ‘Em | Sit ‘Em  (click to read)

Week 2 Waiver Wire Advice:  Pick Them Up  | Cut Them Loose

————————

Don’t forget to head over to our Fantasy Football Message Board and sign-up for a FORUM account. By doing so you will be able to talk fantasy football all season long.