Bruno Boys Fantasy Football

Every year at this time tons of scouts, general managers, and coaches’ gather to watch some of the elite prospects go through several different tests to try and help improve their draft position. The NFL Scouting Combine goes under the microscope year after year, with some of the top players not participating (instead waiting for individual workouts) while others improve their draft stock or hurt it in a big way. 

This year will be no different, as some prospects will catch our eye and receive a ton of media attention. But do these players tend to be big time stars on the field come Sundays in the fall? I have never been one to put a lot of stock into the NFL Scouting Combine. If someone was playing at another level than the competition in college, why wouldn’t that translate to the pro game? However, you do need to watch the combine for the mere fact that many guys in college football are only system players. That is why you need to see if their athleticism will translate to an NFL team. Plus you get to scout players who may get drafted in the later rounds yet have enough talent to potentially make for a waiver wire pick in your fantasy football league.

The position that translates the most rookie studs in fantasy football is running back. In the last 10 years, there have been 15 running backs that have rushed for more than 1,000 yards in their rookie season. Out of those 15, 10 have been chosen among the first 50 picks of the NFL Draft. Obviously these statistics show that rookie running backs can make an immediate impact; however, can the combine be used to determine which RB’s will have success in their first season? Running backs never time out as the fastest in the 40-yard dash, but do well in the 10-yard dash. You may remember two running backs putting up great numbers in the 40-yard dash two years ago (Chris Johnson, 4.24 & Darren McFadden, 4.33) but only one guy was a success in his rookie season (Johnson-1,228 yards, nine touchdowns). Really the combine has little affect on the running back situation, but instead is used as a product of where the players get drafted. A running backs NFL life is very short lived compared to other positions (due to the pounding they take), which is why the opportunity comes much faster. As long as a running back can hit a hole and pick up blocks in pass protection, he will be on the field quite a bit. If the trend continues at the position, you can expect two to three running backs to do well as a rookie in fantasy football, but its tough figuring out who that may be (until their drafted). Finding the guy with an opportunity after the draft is better for you than to base judgment on their Scouting Combine or Pro Day workouts.

One position in fantasy football that you should ignore during the scouting combine is quarterback. Rarely does a signal caller start the first game of the season or make an impact to where you feel comfortable in putting a rookie in your starting lineup. Over the last 10 years, there has only been one quarterback (Matt Ryan, 2008, Atlanta Falcons) that threw for more than 3,000 yards in their rookie season. Usually a quarterback who gets an opportunity to play immediately is doing so on a bad team with either a poor supporting cast or a bad offensive line that has him running for his life. That means they do not get the chance to make the necessary throws to be successful. Add that they are not comfortable reading NFL defenses, and aren’t ready for the speed of the game, and you see why rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle. No matter the numbers they put up at the combine or how accurate their throws are, rookie quarterbacks are merely waiver wire fodder in standard fantasy football league. 

Another position that tends to lack big splash at the combine and on the stat page in year one is tight end. Since 2000, there has never been a 1,000 yard tight end in their rookie season. In fact, there has only been one guy who had more than 700 yards receiving (Jeremy Shockey, 2002, New York Giants). In other words, avoid getting caught up in any hype a tight end may get from the NFL Scouting Combine. There will be a lot of buzz around those who have great hands, run good routes, or run block extremely well. But even with the 2010 rookie tight end class being full of potential, there is too much risk involved with drafting one to head your fantasy roster. Tight ends do not tend to test well, but a good route runner with exceptional hands could be worth a late round flier as a backup tight end in a league that requires you roster two tight ends.

Now it’s time to breakdown the position where value tends to sky rocket or plummet at the NFL Scouting Combine. Wide Receivers and Cornerbacks tend to time out the best in the 40-yard dash, 10-yard dash, 20-yard shuttle, and the vertical jump. But tell me if you remember this name, Jerome Mathis of Hampton University. He has the fastest 40-yard dash time in the last 10 years for a wide receiver, when he ran it in 4.28 seconds. Where is he now? Mathis was drafted in the 4th round by the Houston Texans, and after six catches in three years he is no longer in the NFL.

Most casual football fans won’t remember Mathis; however, if you want more evidence how fast 40-yard times create interest yet fail to translate to production on the field look no further than the 2009 NFL Draft. Last year, Darrius Heyward-Bey out of Maryland used his 4.30 second 40-yard dash to go from being a bottom of the first round pick to being drafted No.7 overall by the Oakland Raiders. He was chosen over a top-5 projected pick in Michael Crabtree out of Texas Tech, who did not run a 40 yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. Since the speedy Heyward-Bey was drafted ahead of the sure handed Crabtree it means he outperformed him on the field, Right? Wrong, Heyward-Bey had a mere nine catches for 124 yards and 1 touchdown in his rookie season while Crabtree had 48 catches for 625 yards and twp touchdowns. Oh, and Crabtree sat out the first five games of the season due to a contract dispute.

In fact, if you look back at some of the best 40-yard dash times at the wide receiver position, you will see that no one made an impact in their rookie season (or career for that matter). In the last 10 years, there have been 15 wide outs that ran the 40 yard dash between 4.28 and 4.34 seconds. Let’s name them and tell me if you remember them playing well in year one: Jerome Mathis, Yamon Figures, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Aaron Lockett, Santana Moss, Troy Williamson, Chad Jackson, Jason Hill, Tim Carter, Carlos Francis, Karsten Bailey, Chris Chambers, Mike Wallace, Johnny Knox, and Tyrone Calico. None of these players went for over 1,000 receiving yards in their rookie season (although Chambers, Wallace and Knox had some good games). In short, the 40-yard dash is an overrated test done at the NFL combine.

Many of you may try to find a good wide receiver that will make an impact in their rookie year. In the last 10 seasons, there have only been three wide receivers who have over 1,000 yards receiving in their rookie year (Anquan Boldin, 2003, Arizona Cardinals – Michael Clayton, 2004, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Marques Colston, 2006, New Orleans Saints). Rookie wide receivers have never been able to make an impact over an entire season but have had big games (particularly at the end of the year) from time to time. So when you are looking at the next big thing rookie wide out remember their production is sporadic. Instead, you are better off passing on a rookie pass catcher and using the waiver wire to find one when the time is right. 

So what have we really learned as the NFL Scouting Combine gets started this week? Well you could say that a lot of the facts in this article prove how useless the NFL Scouting Combine actually is. However, it does hold a purpose. Players fresh out of college need to come and display their athleticism while showing they can be a fit in any kind of system. Some players may not work out and for most it will be their Pro Day that makes them look the best for the scouts. Instead of using the NFL Scouting Combine to get excited over a prospect, all you should do is add it as another dimension to your opinion of a possible sleeper/late round candidate for your 2010 fantasy football draft in August. The biggest key is how the guys play on the field, but if they show they have strength and speed with many skills, there is a chance those players will add a dimension to whatever team drafts them. As we know, as long as rookies see the field there is a chance they can have a some type of fantasy football impact. Therefore the combine should not force you to draft a player, instead use it as a tool to be better prepared to determine what the future may entail for the up-and-coming NFL rookies.

This article is brought to you by Bruno Boys Greg. He can be reached at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

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