Bet Tom Brady is Passing UNDER 274.5 yards (-115) BetMGM

Start Time: Sunday, September 11, AT&T Stadium 8:20pm ET
Broadcast: NBC / Peacock / NFL

Tom Brady starts his 23rd season after retiring for two weeks and it might be rough seas to chart early on. First let’s get to the state of his receivers. Mike Evans is fine, but Chris Godwin will be a game time decision in trying to come back from a torn ACL in December.

Russell Gage is nursing a sore hamstring but is expected to play. Julio Jones would be the next man up, which isn’t bad for the No. 4 receiver. Unfortunately, his production has been spotty, having missed 14 games over that span.

TB12 will miss having the security blanket of Rob Gronkowski (retired) at tight end. That hurts both the pass attack and blocking for both Brady and Leonard Fournette. Then we get to the real trouble – the offensive line.

By now you might have seen that Pro Bowl left guard Ali Marpet retired. Fellow Pro Bowler Alex Cappa ditched the Bucs for the Bengals in free agency. Then another Pro Bowler, center Ryan Jensen was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. Cappa’s replacement, Aaron Stinnie tore his left ACL and MCL in the preseason. Marpet’s hole was filled with Shaq Mason in a trade with the Patriots. And All-Pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs is returning from a strained oblique. The replacements: Robert Hainsey, Nick Leverett and Luke Goedeke have two years experience combined.

Whew! That’s a lot of offensive line talk in a player pro article, we know. But it’s important. We don’t think that Brady will have the usual comfort throwing from the pocket Sunday night. Dallas’ defense has DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons hunting for him between the gaps. Cameron Brate, Kyle Rudolph and Cade Otton combined are not the blocker or receiver that Gronk was. Godwin and Gage are playing well below 100 percent. Brady is resourceful, but only if he has the time to throw it.

Given the state of the offensive line and health of the receivers, Leonard Fournette is probably the early down option. Just don’t expect a Herculean effort in Week 1. Brady is human after all, whenever his offensive line play is subpar. Because of that, we’re betting that Brady doesn’t hit 274.5 yards.

To see three more of Ernie’s Week 1 Quarterback Prop Bets to consider. Click on the next page!