Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to the Week 15 of the 2022 NFL Season! Along with the variety of fantasy football formats, we cover Player Prop bets. So in case you just want some quick action for the weekend, Ernie Estrella is tackling Player Prop betting during the season. He will break down the wiser bets for five players (2 in-depth, 3 quick) at quarterback, running back and wide receiver, based on how he sees the game script going.
Week 15 Running Backs
A.J. Dillon will rush OVER 46.5 yards (-127 Caesars) against the Titans
Start Time: Sunday, December 19, Lambeau Field 8:15pm ET
Broadcast: ESPN Sports / ESPN + / NFL+
This is our riskiest Player Prop bet yet because we aren’t quite sure how much Dillon is going to touch the ball. It’s all dependent on how much Aaron Jones plays, who is suiting up after resting the last game with an ankle injury. Dillon filled in for two games and showed he can easily be the Packers’ lead back if he’s allowed to touch the ball that much. He’s just got to get that volume. Out of the 13 backs who carried the football at least 10 times, 11 of those backs have reached at least 50 yards rushing.
We feel if the Packers are going to use either back in the passing game, it’s going to be Jones. He has 48 receptions to Dillon’s 23. Jones also has four receiving touchdowns. But from a rushing standpoint, Jones (164 carries) has just a 21 carry lead on Dillon (143). Yet Dillon has a slim lead on rushing touchdowns, three to Jones’ two. It’s going to be a cold night in Lambeau Field, so we expect the run game to be a big factor for both teams on Monday night and as long as Matt LeFleur gives him the carries, Dillon should get to 50 yards rushing.