Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to the Week 21 of the 2022 NFL Season! Along with the variety of fantasy football formats, we cover Player Prop bets. So in case you just want some quick action for the weekend, Ernie Estrella is tackling Player Prop betting during the season. He will break down the wiser bets for five players (2 in-depth, 3 quick) at quarterback, running back and wide receiver, based on how he sees the game script going.
Week 21 Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts will throw UNDER 251.5 yards (-120 BetMGM) and rush OVER 44.5 yards (-114 FanDuel) against the 49ers
Start Time: Sunday, January 29, Lincoln Financial Field 3:00pm ET
Broadcast: Fox Sports / fuboTV / NFL+
Based on last week, we can assume that Hurts is back to full strength. He threw the ball and ran confidently to quickly bury the Giants in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Eagles are at full strength with Dallas Goedert being a key part of this attack since the Niners’ defend the pass so well. They have a beastly front seven that will make it hard for Philly’s three running backs. In the regular season not many quarterbacks had success against them. After Week 7, One QB (Jarrett Stidham) to score over 18 (28 points) fantasy points.
So how did the few quarterbacks have success against the Niners? Score touchdowns and rushing yards. Only five QBs managed to throw over 250 yards against the Niners: Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Stidham. We do think that Hurts belongs in this group that is capable of putting those kind of numbers. The question is, will he? He’s going to need to do it, to win. He struggled to put up big numbers on the Cowboys back in Week 6; he posted similar numbers against the Jaguars in Week 4. The Commanders were destroyed by Hurts in Week 3, but handed the Eagles their first loss in Week 10. In general, Hurts struggled to post big stats against the better defenses.
Now, Marcus Mariota was able to pad his stats against San Francisco with 50 yards and a rushing touchdown in Week 5 against the Niners. If Hurts can get the kind of blocking he’s had all season long, he will need a lot of attempts, but we expect him to reach 45 yards. Hurts should be able to escape the Niners’ pass rush, because they typically rush just four and don’t blitz as much as other teams. He’ll have a problem getting past the linebackers though.