Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to the Week 23 of the 2022 NFL Season, SUPER BOWL LVII! Along with the variety of fantasy football formats, we cover Player Prop bets. So in case you just want some quick action for the weekend, Ernie Estrella is tackling Player Prop betting during the season. He will break down the wiser bets for five players (2 in-depth, 3 quick) at quarterback, running back and wide receiver, based on how he sees the game script going.
There are some interesting things going on with the Super Bowl. The Consensus is leaning towards the Philadelphia Eagles. 61 percent of the experts of the experts is thinking the Eagles are going to beat their -1.5 spread (-110 BetMGM / DraftKings). We would agree. The trench play of the Eagles to us, is too strong to push back. That goes for the offense and defense. The Over/Under is sitting at 51.0 points with betters split evenly for both the under and the over. Vegas is anticipating a close game, with a lot of points, at least six touchdowns between the two teams. We would bet the OVER 50.5 (-110 BetMGM) on total points. Interestingly, 56 percent of the money is on Kansas City. Now let’s look at the player props for Super Bowl LVII.
Week 23 Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Travis Kelce will…
Catch OVER 78.5 yards (-110 BetMGM) and will catch OVER 7.5 receptions (+140 Caesars) against the Eagles.
Start Time: Sunday, February 12, State Farm Stadium, 6:30pm ET
Broadcast: Fox Sports / fuboTV / NFL+
The tight ends are going to be a huge factor in this game. It is the Kelce Bowl after all and Travis Kelce is Patrick Mahomes’ main target. The Eagles have a big dilemma on their hands. Can they get to Mahomes in time before he gets the ball out of his hands to Kelce and other receivers? Do they blitz Mahomes with Hassan Reddick and potentially leave Kelce open to run in the open field? Or do they drop Reddick in coverage and hope he can keep up with him?
To echo what we said our the quarterback player props, the Eagles are probably going to try and rush Mahomes early and test that ankle out to see if he’s still hobbled by it. If he is, they’ll keep coming after him. If not, then they’ll adjust. So Kelce should have some opportunities early. Teammates will need to step up though because he cannot do it himself. The more that Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jerick McKinnon, and JuJu Smith-Schuster help out, the more likely that Kelce will be involved in the game. Will he get eight or more receptions? That’s tough. He’s averaging over 10.0 per game in the playoffs, but he averaged just 6.47 in the regular season.
If the Chiefs are struggling and need points, Mahomes is going to turn to his best receiver. Just to move the chains, just to get something going (see on the last page). However, Kelce is the best tight end in the game and he’ll get his numbers, but over 7.5 seems high when the Eagles defend the intermediate routes so well. The only thing that has us resisting that urge, is that Kelce plays big on the big stage. His targets and receptions in big games this season in close games and losses were above his averages. Considering the moment and the opposing defense, this is the biggest stage and toughest opponent they’ve faced all season.