Devonta Smith will… Receive UNDER 5.5 receptions (-138 FanDuel) against the Chiefs
Smith is a more consistent receiver, who like Brown, has the talent and the skill to get open regularly. Smith has caught 103 receptions out of 149 targets, good for 69 percent. That being said, I think Smith is right at five receptions, maybe four. Here’s why:
Because the Eagles don’t throw that heavily, there’s only been a few handful of games where he’s shown the high volume. Typically, it’s been against weaker secondaries, but his highest stretch of the season came when the Eagles didn’t have Hurts available. Smith has had an incredible season, and given Brown’s impact on the team, Smith’s numbers did not diminish. In fact, Brown’s presence boosted Smith’s production. So it’s tough to bet against either Brown or Smith, but it’s foolish to think everyone will thrive in this game.
Gardner Minshew really took to Smith as a target but in the Super Bowl with a healthy Jalen Hurts, the game plan will be run heavy, to open up the pass. It’s tempting to think Smith will have a breakout game, but it just goes against what’s on paper and what will likely be the offensive game plan against the Chiefs.