Busts can be a strong word and we never wish any ill will on any of these players. In fact, we would never tell anyone to avoid players. There’s always a round late enough where any player becomes great value. However, some will probably never meet the expectations put on them, based on where they were picked.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Zeke’s current ADP is 24.5, which is top of the third round of most fantasy drafts. Elliott will remain the runner on first and second downs. He’s also the preferred red zone option, but his numbers don’t justify where he’s being selected at. Elliott is no longer the coveted bell cow back from 2018.
After averaging 292.5 carries in his first four seasons, Elliott is averaging 240.5 in his last two. His receiving yards and receptions continue to decline for three straight seasons from his 2018 season. As a result his average total yards average is 1,303.0 over his last two seasons as compared to the 1,756.0 in the first four. Elliott is healthier the last three seasons (16.0 games played), up from his first three (13.3 games played).
Meanwhile, Tony Pollard is the better long-term option at running back as a dual threat, replacing the holes at receiver. Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is trying to find ways to get Pollard the ball more. Dallas’ offense is being forced to adapt, affected by injuries again. Left tackle Tyron Smith suffered a torn left hamstring that will sideline him for multiple months. Rookie Tyler Smith or Connor McGovern will fill in, but getting Zeke up to those elite numbers will be difficult.