Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to the Week 2 of the 2023 NFL Season! Along with the variety of fantasy football formats, we cover Player Prop bets. So in case you just want some quick action for the weekend, Ernie Estrella is tackling Player Prop betting during the season. He will break down and select a handful of bets for five players at quarterback, running back and wide receivers / tight ends, based on how he sees the game script going.
Week 2 Running Backs
Joshua Kelley will rush UNDER 49.5 yards (-110 FanDuel) against the Titans.
Start Time: Sunday, September 17, Nissan Stadium, 4:25pm ET
Broadcast: CBS Sports / Paramount+ / NFL+
Austin Ekeler is out, making a Kelley an instant RB2 in Week 2. As the main running back in a high-powered offense, Kelley will have the responsibility of grinding out the hard yardage against one of the most brutal run defenses in the game. If there’s one thing the Titans do as well as anyone, it’s stopping the run. Playing in just 48 percent of the snaps in Week 1, Kelley ran the ball 16 times for 91 yards and a touchdown. The difference being that it was against the Dolphins and in a shootout scenario.
The Titans gave up the third-fewest fantasy points in 2022, and last week the second-fewest. They don’t miss many tackles and they rank highly in stuff rate (12th). In past seasons, the Chargers would just pass their way out of a problem. They lived and died by the pass. Now with Kellen Moore behind the offense, that’s in doubt. He clearly made sure that Ekeler and Kelley had big production. It mirrored what Moore drew up in Dallas when Zeke Elliott was still the main tailback and had Tony Pollard come up with the burst and youth. Kelley’s carries prop is dancing around 14.5 which is really enticing to take the over. But I could also see Kelley getting stuffed so much that he never makes it to 15 carries.
Kelley could still be an impact player in the passing game, but he’ll have to set up those plays by eating tackles with little gain. That’s why I feel better about his yardage prop of 49.5 yards. He just has to fall short of 50 yards to get it. That’s a hard pill to swallow given how well he ran in Week 1, but I have to respect the Titans defense here.