Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to the Week 3 of the 2023 NFL Season! Along with the variety of fantasy football formats, we cover Player Prop bets. So in case you just want some quick action for the weekend, Ernie Estrella is tackling Player Prop betting during the season. He will break down and select a handful of bets for five players at quarterback, running back and wide receivers / tight ends, based on how he sees the game script going.
Week 3 Quarterbacks
Sam Howell will throw UNDER 224.5 yards (-110 Bet365) against the Bills.
Start Time: Sunday, September 24, FedEx Field, 1:00pm ET
Broadcast: CBS Sports / Paramount+ / NFL+
The Bills are the type of team who can impose their will on an inferior team. Right now that’s where I view the Commanders in comparison to the Bills. Now they’re a definite team of interest. The offense has (so far) looked improved with Eric Bienemy’s play calling. Sam Howell is coming off a terrific Week 2 where he stormed back in the second half to bring his team back, to take a 11-point lead late and eventually go home victorious against the Broncos. Howell and the Commanders beat a good defense and Vegas seems to have all the confidence in him to do it again. We’re not so confident.
Looking at Howell’s props, we were surprised to see his yardage prop as high as it was. 224.5 yards is a lot for a what is essentially a rookie quarterback who has three career starts under his belt. The only time he’s broke 225 yards was last week. We’ll give him his “props” for that, but that’s a very optimistic view that he’d do it again against the Bills, who start Week 3 with the 6th-ranked defense. Both of the quarterbacks they’ve faced Zach Wilson (140) and Jimmy Garoppolo (185) were held under 200 yards passing.
It’s not that he doesn’t have the talent around him. Howell has excellent receivers but the bread and butter of this team is the run game. So to keep the ball safe and secure, the Commanders will need to run the ball well if they want a shot at knocking off the Bills. However, we’re defaulting to Buffalo’s defense in this prop. Now, if Howell does wind up beating his prop against this defense, I’ll definitely re-evaluate him moving forward.