Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to the Week 23 of the 2022 NFL Season, SUPER BOWL LVII! Along with the variety of fantasy football formats, we cover Player Prop bets. So in case you just want some quick action for the weekend, Ernie Estrella is tackling Player Prop betting during the season. He will break down the wiser bets for five players (2 in-depth, 3 quick) at quarterback, running back and wide receiver, based on how he sees the game script going.
There are some interesting things going on with the Super Bowl. The Consensus is leaning towards the Philadelphia Eagles. 61 percent of the experts of the experts is thinking the Eagles are going to beat their -1.5 spread (-110 BetMGM / DraftKings). We would agree. The trench play of the Eagles to us, is too strong to push back. That goes for the offense and defense. The Over/Under is sitting at 51.0 points with betters split evenly for both the under and the over. Vegas is anticipating a close game, with a lot of points, at least six touchdowns between the two teams. We would bet the OVER 50.5 (-110 BetMGM) on total points. Interestingly, 56 percent of the money is on Kansas City. Now let’s look at the player props for Super Bowl LVII.
Week 23 Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts will…
Throw UNDER 240.5 yards (-117 Caesars) and rush OVER 44.5 yards (-114 FanDuel) and will score a touchdown (EVEN FanDuel) against the Chiefs.
Start Time: Sunday, February 12, State Farm Stadium, 6:30pm ET
Broadcast: Fox Sports / fuboTV / NFL+
Will the Eagles unleash the passing game? We’ve seen it before in bites. The Eagles can throw the ball if they want to really keep the Chiefs guessing. Hurts has Devonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, and a plethora of running backs that can pose a threat in a wheel route. Hurts has failed to reach 240 yards passing 10 times, including two straight playoff games.
But remember, they blew the Giants and the Niners out in those games and there was no need to do so. On the other hand, the Chiefs will look to score and the Eagles might find themselves needing to keep pace. As the scoring climbs, so does the chances of Hurts staying in the pocket to make a big play. Then again, the Eagles are so well-balanced, Hurts has no pressure on to rack up gaudy stats just to prove he belongs there.
Hurts went over 250 yards passing against the Bears, Titans, Steelers, Commanders and Vikings, all of which had subpart secondaries. If the matchup told him to throw, Hurts threw. But if the defense gave the Eagles the run, they ran the ball. There is another side to this though, the Chiefs defense. If this was the start of the season, I would definitely get behind the notion that Hurts would beat his prop for passing yards. Four out of the first seven quarterbacks the Chiefs faced threw over 300 yards.
Since Week 9, the Chiefs just allowed three quarterbacks to throw over 250 yards (Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence) over the regular season. They would face Lawrence and Burrow again in the playoffs and they held them to 217 and 270 passing yards respectively. Rookie Trent McDuffie and third-year corner L’Jarius Sneed have been excellent in coverage. Two other rookies Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson have also been quality players. There is also DT Chris Jones to avoid.
Part of the formula that the Eagles are going to try and employ is the run. It’s their strength and they are highly successful running between the tackles. Hurts is one of the top quarterbacks in the league who can run well too out of the spread. Kansas City is only average against the run and we know that the Eagles don’t try to be cute. They play to the weaknesses of their opponent. That’s why Hurts will beat his rushing prop, even though the immediate counter would be to increase his passing to match Patrick Mahomes. They’ll throw the ball, but you beat the Chiefs by running at them.