Patrick Mahomes will throw OVER 292.5 yards (-110 FanDuel) and OVER 1.5 touchdowns (-215 FanDuel) against the Eagles

Start Time: Sunday, February 12, State Farm Stadium, 6:30pm ET
Broadcast:  Fox Sports /  fuboTV / NFL+

So how does Mahomes counter? It won’t be easy. The Eagles are just as balanced on the defensive side as they are on offense. Thankfully, for Mahomes, his teammates are at full strength including Clyde Edwards-Helaire (who will not upend Isiah Pacheco) and Mecole Hardman. They’ll need everything they can get.

No one gets to the quarterback like the Eagles. They were clearly the leaders in the NFL in that department and we saw how their pass rush changed the outcome of the NFC Championship. Mahomes is the top dawg against the blitz, but three weeks removed from the ankle injury he suffered AFC Divisional round. The Eagles are going to try and test that early.

What is striking about the Eagles is this, they defend the intermediate pass extremely well. Then you look at the makeup of the Chiefs, from Travis Kelce, to JuJu Smith-Schuster, to Pacheco. It’s all about that hitting the intermediate routes. They don’t have that Tyreek Hill type that stretches the field. It’s going to be a real challenge for the MVP of the NFL to work his usual mojo. That’s why his passing yards prop is sitting at 292.5 and why he’ll beat it. Vegas is daring him to throw over 300 yards again, which he’s done 11 times this season. 

Philadelphia though, held all but one quarterback under 300 yards. Only Dak Prescott back in Week 16 did it when the Eagles stumbled a bit without Hurts. Mahomes is the equalizer in this game. The Chiefs will have success running the ball, but it will come after Mahomes gets the Eagles on their heels. He’s got his work cut out, but from a sheer volume stand point, Mahomes may need to test the Eagles with short routes and see if anyone besides Travis Kelce can beat the coverage. If he can’t sustain drives, then the Chiefs are losing this game.

We’ve seen it all before though, right? Patrick Mahomes will find a way to keep the Chiefs competitive in this game and might just pull it off. He’ll throw multiple touchdowns, which is why he’ll beat his chalky 1.5 touchdown prop at -215. Throwing over 2.5 touchdowns is a little high for me, given the Eagles defense, but the under 2.5 touchdowns is sitting at -210. If you need that extra action, sure, the FanDuel prop is the better way to go, but you won’t win much.