Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to 2022 Divisional Playoffs! The regular season may be over and even though season-long fantasy football is done, that doesn’t mean you can’t get in on the action that’s happening for the playoffs. Marc Caviglia and Ernie Estrella are tackling Player Prop betting during the playoffs and are going to break down each game for you along with our picks at the end.
San Francisco 49ers (12-7) at Los Angeles Rams (14-5)
Spread: Rams (-3.5) (-110 BetMGM)
Total: O/U 45.5 (-105 DraftKings)
Start Time: Sunday, January 30, 6:30pm ET (FOX)
This is the rubber match of all rubber matches. This is the third time these teams will face off against one another. The winner goes to the Super Bowl. The 49ers won the first game in Week 10 on their turf, 31-10, then they won again in Sofi Stadium in a nail biting 27-24 win that the Niners needed to skate into the playoffs.
Can the Niners continue to dominate the Rams? They are 6-0 against the Rams in their last six games and 13-5 going back to 2013. The Rams are riding their star-studded defense to create opportunities for their equally talented offense. Meanwhile, the Niners’ defense just keeps getting better each week and Jimmy Garoppolo continues to make just enough plays with an offense with two x-factors. This could be a defensive game, this could be a shootout, but we expect the game to be close.
San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Shanahan has the Niners playing like a team no one wants a part of. They stuffed the Packers and Cowboys in consecutive playoff games and had five sacks in each. Rookie RB Eli Mitchell is running the ball well with volume and has established success against the Rams in two games. But the Swiss-Army Knift Deebo Samuel will also get 8-10 carries… and be deadly.
Samuel can also hurt the Rams as a receiver and is averaging 21.3 yards per catch (nine receptions for 192 yards) against them. Samuel has three touchdowns against Los Angeles, scored 14 total times in the regular season and has one (rushing) in the playoffs. Smart money says he’s touching the ball around 15 times, even with Jalen Ramsey following him. If he’s well-covered then Brandon Aiyuk has been key, so has Jauan Jennings. TE George Kittle hasn’t even gone off yet but could easily remain a dominant force in the blocking game. Kittle is a true wild card for the Niners.
Los Angeles Rams
When the Rams made a trade for receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and lost Robert Woods in the same week, they’ve only gotten stronger. Beckham looks more comfortable in this offense with a quarterback who knows where and how to get it to him. He’s caught 10-of-12 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown in the playoffs. He’s now scored in 6-of-10 games as a member of the Los Angeles Rams.
That happens though because defenses are so worried about Cooper Kupp, who has torn through defense after defense. Kupp has gone over 90 receiving yards in all but two games this season, regular or playoffs. He has gone over 100 yards in 12 games and has only failed to score in six games out of 19. Still, his line is a massive 103.5 yards. I don’t know if I’d wager on the over considering the Niners’ D on the Packers.
QB Matthew Stafford has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal and he looks to finally make his mark on his legacy by winning the biggest game of his career. He’s thrown at least three touchdowns in nine regular season games, but has thrown only two scores in each of the Rams’ two playoff wins. But the Rams are not just about the pass.
Second-year running back Cam Akers made a miraculous return after tearing his Achilles in July. His touches have gone from 8, to 18, to 27. There’s no more worrying about who is carrying the ball. It’s Akers and while he hasn’t netted huge numbers, volume is something to consider about him, especially if he gets a good wheel route or screen to bust a play open. Still, I would be conservative with his line. The Niners give up more in the passing game than they do on the ground. And neither Sony Michel or Darrell Henderson had better luck against this defense. Just consider the volume of carries and what Sean McVay likes to do.
Picks to Consider:
- Jimmy Garoppolo, Over 225.5 Passing Yards (125 PointsBet)
- Jimmy Garoppolo, Over 0.5 Interceptions (-155 DraftKings)
- Deebo Samuel, Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115 PointsBet)
- Deebo Samuel, Anytime Touchdown (-110 FanDuel)
- Elijah Mitchell, Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-111 BetMGM)
- Brandon Aiyuk, Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (Even 47.5 Ceasars)
- Cooper Kupp, Under 103.5 Receiving Yards (-110 Bet365)
- Cam Akers, Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-121 BetRivers)
- Matthew Stafford, Over 282.5 Passing Yards (-110 Bet365)
- Odell Beckham, Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110 FanDuel)
- Tyler Higbee, Under 4.5 Receptions (-167 BetMGM)