Welcome, Bruno Boys Nation to Wild Card Weekend! The regular season may be over and even though season-long fantasy football is done, that doesn’t mean you can’t get in on the action that’s happening for the playoffs. Marc Caviglia and Ernie Estrella are tackling Player Prop betting during the playoffs and are going to break down each game for you along with our picks at the end.
Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)
Spread: Buccaneers (-7 at FanDuel)
Total: O/U 47 points (FanDuel)
Start Time: Sunday, January 16, 1pm ET (FOX)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4) enter Super Wild Weekend as the reigning Super Bowl champions, however will enter their game with the Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) short-handed. They will be without primary running backs Leonard Fournette (injury), Ronald Jones (injury) and wide receivers Antonio Brown (released) and Chris Godwin (injury). Injuries aside, the Buccaneers have the greatest player ever in quarterback Tom Brady, and if anyone can win football games without their key cogs, it’s Brady.
On the other side of the football, the Eagles are healthy on offense with the return of running back Miles Sanders and are led by their dual-threat playmaking quarterback in Jalen Hurts. Hurts finished with 3,144 passing yards, 784 rushing yards and 26 total touchdowns (16 passing, 10 rushing).
While the Eagles have done well on the road this season (6-3) they are a young an inexperienced team that will have to play an almost perfect football game to upend Brady and the Buccaneers.
The player prop I really like in this game is Tom Brady Over/Under 270.5 passing yards (-110 at FanDuel). I truly feel that this number is deflated because the Buccaneers offense will be without 3 of their top 5 skill players, but Brady is a proven commodity in the postseason and the veteran will be on the top of his game later today.
Brady scorched the Eagles secondary for 297 yards and 2 touchdown strikes in a 28-22 victory over the Eagles during Week 6 and that was without the usage of his reliable tight end Rob Gronkowski. Look for Gronkowski to be a featured target in this football game and I expect him to makeup for the lost production from Antonio Brown (9 receptions, 93 receiving yards, 1 touchdown) in their previous meeting with the Eagles.
While the Eagles rank in the top-12 defensively against the pass, the Buccaneers will rely on Brady to make plays to win this football game and Brady should be a lock to surpass 270.5 passing yards. Our projection has Brady’s stat line at: 35 of 43, 310 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns.
While FanDuel has the best Brady passing yard line at 270.5 yards, this NFL player prop is still safe to play at 273.5 passing yards (and up to 280.5 passing yards) at other sports betting websites.
Pick: Tom Brady OVER 270.5 passing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Risk: 2.2 Units (1 unit = $100)
To Win: 2 Units
Here are a couple of other Player Prop bets worth considering in this game:
- Jalen Hurts UNDER 58.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
- Rob Gronkowski OVER 5.5 receptions (-113 at FanDuel)
- Ke’shawn Vaughn OVER 46.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
- Dallas Goedert OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)